Shallow Frozen Water

An Expert’s Audit

Welcome once again to “An Expert’s Audit”.  This audit will also be posted here as well as on my fantasy hockey blog at www.fantasyhockey.hockeyanalysis.com .  I also do weekly reviews of teams for people who email in to me for a look-see.  These audits will continue to appear here monthly and if you’re interested in having your keeper team “worked over” then you can begin by emailing Dobber about it.

This is part two of an article in for An Expert’s Audit.  My hope is that you can glean something beneficial out of this, particularly you folks in salary leagues.

Protecting the right guys

It is a common misconception that you just keep the best players.  Well I suppose it is true that in a straight draft keeper league you do indeed keep the best players, but in a salary league you don’t protect the best players you protect the best value.  There’s a big difference between spending a fifth of your cap on Sidney Crosby and having a minimal FA protection on Jonathan Toews.

Many leagues mix salaries and/or draft picks into the setup and your auction/draft strategy has to change from your standard redraft league.  Should you use 1/5^th of your cap to protect Sidney Crosby or do you protect Peter Mueller, Kyle Okposo, and Patrick O’Sullivan for the same price?  You protect the kids and then you use the extra space in your cap to try and resign Sid for as close to the same price as last year.  Protection in salary leagues isn’t about talent, it’s about value and it’s always better to have your cake and eat it too.

I got to auctioneer for a league last year and my jaw literally dropped as a buddy nominated and got his backup goalie for the minimum FA bid.  Now he sits with Miikka Kiprusoff and Carey Price and it baffles me that nobody bid him up at that auction.  He didn’t win the league this year but he’s got himself a cornerstone on the cheap for years to come.  Obviously he’s going to keep Price and let inflation slowly raise his salary over the next decade.  I mention this because keeping players is all about value and not about talent.

Learn about inflation

If you’ve never considered the concept of inflation in your salary league then I’d be betting that you’ve never won your salary league too.  Inflation helps you in two ways in a salary league; economically, and scarcity-based.  Scarcity is easier to explain so I’ll briefly look at that.  The principle is simple, if everybody is loading up on their goalies then you better be sure to get yours too.  That’ll mean paying more than you projected to ensure you get what you need to compete in your league.  It’ll also mean that you should be tiering every player you have interest in during your draft so that you don’t miss out on the any option you have listed at a higher tier.

It’s also a lot of fun to track where everyone has the holes in their lineup and then bid the exact amount they have left on their cap just to ensure that the other guy doesn’t get a bargain when he’s struggling to fill his lineup.  It’ll mean tracking EVERYTHING during your auction, you need to know how many bucks each guy at the table still has on the table and you need to know what each guy still needs to fill out his roster.  Programs can be developed that’ll do all that for you as you plug into your spreadsheet.

Economic based inflation is a concept that I stole from fantasy baseball.  It should be noted that in this discussion you’ll have to “tweak” the numbers to fit your salary cap and what each guy will be keeping.  The numbers WON’T come out as neatly as my example but if you do it right then you’ll have an advantage over the rest of your league.  I searched around for a good example to put out here for you and the best example I could find for economic inflation was actually found in the fantasy baseball realm.  Don’t ignore this portion of the article because you think baseball is too slow or whatever lame-ass opinion you want to throw out at me.

Any salary league has to take inflation into account during a draft.  Prepare beforehand and it’s perfectly fine to show up at your draft with a spreadsheet and a calculator in addition to all your salary projections for the upcoming season.

Let’s assume that your league is a 12 teamer with 23 man rosters and a $260 salary cap, I use those numbers because they’re standard for fantasy baseball which is where I stole this concept from.  Every fantasy mag puts out auction values for fantasy leagues so you’ll just need to account for inflation over the course of your auction.  No you don’t want to just wing it, not if you want to win.  Tracking your leagues economic inflation over the course of your auction will help you to evaluate the value of elite players in your auction, and that’s how you want to use it.

Everyone is going to keep guys, let’s say everyone keeps 10 guys.  Since everyone has a $260 cap and everyone will need 23 guys that’ll mean that 12 guys chase 276 names (12 x 23 man rosters) and there’s only $3120 (12 x $260) to spend.  Let’s say everyone keeps 10 guys and to keep numbers simple let’s further say that they are all kept at $10 apiece.  Each team has spent $100 and the total spent in the league going into the auction is $1200 (12 x 100).  Next, get out your fantasy auction values that you scooped off of whatever fantasy source you think is the smartest (insert Dobber’s fantasy guide commercial here) and note all the fantasy salary values they list, you’ll have to prorate accordingly if you don’t use a $260 cap, and you probably don’t.  You’ll next need to total up the fantasy value in your league.  Ok, are you ready to get all nerdy?

Look up everyone’s keepers to see what the auction value listed for them is.  Let’s say you’re keeping Corey Perry for $10 (yes it can happen, you just have yourself a bargain) but he’s listed at $13 (I just made up that number).  You add up what the auction value is, not the price you’re actually keeping him at.  Let’s say that everyone is keeping $160 worth of value and the total value protected is $1920 (12 x $160) while remembering that the actual total money spent is actually $1200.

Subtract the value protected from $3120.

 Subtract the money spent.

 That means there is $1920 worth of money chasing $1200 worth of value, assuming that guys are auctioned for the prices set by the expert’s you trust.  Now divide the money left by value left and you’ll get your inflation rate, 1920/1200 = 1.6

Confused?  Well, that inflation rate is an important number come draft time.  Let’s say that Evgeni Malkin was overpriced last year and he had to be thrown back into the auction for this upcoming season.  Let’s also assume his fantasy guide auction value is $44 (another made up number) and your auction gets into prices in the 50’s for him before guys are dropping out since they see a $44 value and a $50 price tag.  Since dollars are limited in the pool anyway you can let your inflation rate be in effect and realize that there’s only so many dollars to go chasing after elite options; multiply his listed dollar value by 1.6 (in this example only) and realize that his actual value in this league is $70.  So … keep bidding, you’re actually getting a bargain on him since your inflation rate helps you realize his true value in THIS league.  This inflation rate will help you evaluate superstars because prices get ridiculous and guys drop out of the bidding.  You do NOT want to figure out an inflation rate on every auctioned player because you’ll end up burning up your cap space bidding on guys you can’t afford.  But the important question becomes, do you want Evgeni Malkin when you have some bucks available or do you want Fernando Pisani when all the options are gone but you still have cash on the table?

Again guys, every inflation rate is different because every setup is different.  It’s confusing.  Use a calculator or if you can, use an abacus … nobody will have a clue what you’re doing (and wear a pocket protector, horned rims and Bryl-cream).

Conclusions

It’s a long way up the hill after you get smoked in a keeper league.  It’s all CONSTANT evaluation, the eternal struggle to find value.

Who do you keep?  You keep the guy that you CAN’T get back for the same price next year.  You keep the guy who’s priced correctly too but it’s more important to keep value than it is to keep ability (at any price).  I got a bit mathy on you today and I’m the first to admit that it isn’t my strong suit but still, it’s necessary.  It’s amazing to me that guys don’t track money spent in an auction and they don’t account for an inflation rate to better target the elite option. 

A little bit of prep time will take you a long way but there’s a danger too; obviously you have to guard against using your inflation rate too often and eating up your salary cap bidding on the best options available.  In the end game you don’t want to have to search for minor leaguers or empty roster spots because you can’t afford to fill in your team.  I’m just saying you also don’t want to leave money on the table; there’s fewer things worse than that in an auction draft.

matchup armchair III

3-1 in the 2nd round, stupid Habs.  that makes me 9-3 overall and on a really good pace for the playoffs.  even if i get the last 3 wrong then i still finish at .600, nice.  let’s go for .800 though eh?

Philadelphia (6) vs. Pittsburgh (2) - sometime in January or so the Flyers sat in 1st place in their division and i made the prediction that they wouldn’t relinquish that for the remainder of the season.  they proceeded to go on a losing streak for close to a month (i forget, what was it 12 games?) that coincided with some injury issues for Mike Richards and some general struggles for many of their team.  i think it’s fair to say that this Flyers squad is back in stride with what they were doing prior to that losing streak.  they’re playing smashmouth hockey like few in the entire league can play.  will it be enough?  i’m still saying no.  i picked the Pens for the final back when this whole playoff thing started and i’m sticking with that.  the Pens are highly skilled, more skilled than the Habs; they skate better, pass better, cycle down low and their D and MAF are at least equal to what the Flyers have been putting out.  one could certainly argue that the Flyers could do to Sid and Gene what they did to the vaunted Habs offense but i argue that they beat the Habs by stopping their power play and the Pens are a lot less dependant on their power play.  the Pens can hurt you a lot easier at even strength than the Habs can or could.  have you watched Malkin with the puck?  Sid seems a bit dinged up still but even when he has the puck there’s a definite determination to control every element of the game.  Biron was a hero against the Habs but i see Gene and Sid finding the chinks in the armour.  Pens in 6.

Dallas (5) vs. Detroit (1) - that Dallas team can surprise, but they won’t.  Marty Turco has been amazing but the Wings give up so few shots/game that all they’ll need is 2 goals a game and this is over.  the Wings are the class of the West and now that the Dom “experiment” is over then Ozzy will be just enough to make sure the Wings get to where they’re destined to be.  with all the hype around Johan Franzen last round i think we’re going to see more out of Pavol Datsyuk this round and he and Zett will prove themselves the best forwards on that team by a mile.  this won’t be a big scoring series.  Wings in 5.

matchup armchair II

i went 6-2 in round one but with the way that the NHL gives the remaining lowest seed to the remaining highest seed then that’s going to mean that anything short of perfection will most likely hurt your bracket for a playoff pool.  as an example, i’m entered into Dobber’s playoff pool (forced to actually and i’m not allowed to win) and you can’t change your picks after the start of the playoffs but my Eastern Conference is all screwed now because i got Was/Phi wrong.  instead of Pitt facing Wash in the 2nd round they now face NYR and i had overloaded my picks off Pitt/NYR with the hope they’d meet each other in the Conference Final.  anyway, i won’t be winning that now i don’t expect.  i wouldn’t have been eligible to take home a prize anyway but still … just like you, i want to win.  the other matchup i got wrong was Ana/Dal but i distinctly remember saying that was going to be a major war anyway.  people really underestimate Marty Turco, and that’s a mistake.  the Sharks need to watch out now, the Stars have a swarming defensive system and they should get Zubov back at sometime this round.  more on that later.

Philadelphia (6) vs. Montreal (1) - originally i wanted the Rangers to take it to Montreal in the 2nd round but that ain’t happening now.  i think the Flyers are going to get a serious wakeup call here, these Habs are not the Washington Capitals.  Montreal has a better all around attack, an elite power play, a strong defensive system and a young stud goalie that wants to keep proving himself.  Kovalev and AKost are going to dominate this series and they’ll show the chinks in the armour of D-men who played over their heads in the first round (i’m thinking of Modry and Hatcher primarily).  i still like Braydon Coburn to contribute some and Daniel Briere will still lead the Flyers in scoring but he’ll be passed fairly easily in the playoff scoring race.  i see this lasting 5 games, maybe 6, and the Habs will be home and cooled out watching an offensive shootout in the other Eastern matchup.

New York Rangers (5) vs. Pittsburgh (2) - this will be a war.  i think that MA Fleury will show significant stripes and prove that he’s the equal of any tender in the East (yes i said it).  there’s going to be lots of scoring but the BIG save, the CLUTCH save will happen off MAF’s equipment in the end.  i’m loading up on these guys in my playoff pool where you can only select players for one round and then never use them again.  i’m picking Malkin, Crosby, Jagr and Gomez and i only get 8 selections this round.  it’ll go 7 games and i’m thinking there’ll be a lot of 5-4 games with the Pens coming out on top at home in the 7th game.

Colorado (6) vs. Detroit (1) - this is the matchup that the Wings wanted, quite frankly they didn’t want to have to face any of Calgary, Anaheim or Dallas if the chips had fallen that way.  i think this has the potential to be fairly offensive too but the Wings allow so few shots that i wonder if this series will turn into a pure defensive struggle or not.  Sakic and Forsberg will lead like everyone knows they will but they’ll be outshone by Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg.  Detroit in 6 games.

Dallas (5) vs. San Jose (2) - there is all sorts of potential for this series to blow up in the Sharks faces.  if they thought Calgary was tough then they haven’t seen anything yet.  the Stars play essentially the same game as the Flames except they’re better at it.  i see Morrow pounding Campbell against the end boards on every dump-in chance he gets at him and if Campbell fights his way through that like he did against Calgary then he could still be a good option this series.  once he gets out of his own zone with the puck though he’s going to have face blanketing defensive forwards and a mix of skating puck control D with some muscle that can finish the job that Morrow didn’t finish.  Dallas plays a more intimidating game than Calgary does and they’ve just finished blanketing the champs into submission.  if you like hard-nosed hockey then this’ll be the round to watch.  originally i planned for the Sharks to beat Anaheim this round but right now … give me the Stars in 7.

An Expert’s Audit

Welcome once again to “An Expert’s Audit”.  This audit will also be posted here as well as on my fantasy hockey blog at www.fantasyhockey.hockeyanalysis.com .  These audits will continue to appear here monthly and if you’re interested in having your keeper team “worked over” then you can begin by emailing Dobber about it.I’ll be writing an article in two parts for the next two months of An Expert’s Audit. 

My hope is that you can glean something beneficial out of this, particularly you folks in salary leagues.

What vacation?

Don’t take the summer off. This is an absolute must in ANY league.  Just like trading PIMs to a guy who can steal a point away from your main competition is a smart move, especially if it also won’t hurt you, look at draft and keeper options over the summer to see if you can put yourself in better position for a draft pick in September.  Do you have a guy that is a good keeper option but you can’t keep?  How about moving him to a guy so you can pocket a pick of his?  I find in my keepers that nobody looks at that as an option, they just sit and wait for the draft and let things fall where they may.  Idiotic.  If you can help yourself in July or August then you have to have that discussion, in the very least.  Your league’s strategy has to go year round and you need to fight year round. 

Know the rules of your league.  I’m the “secretary” for my two keeper leagues.  We only keep 3 guys from year to year but still, best I can tell, I’m the only guy firing off emails to other guys in the offseason to see if I can gauge interest in moving a couple guys or a keeper and a pick for a better keeper.  In our league you’re not allowed to trade draft picks so you have to make a deal where you draft a player the other guy wants and then trade him post-draft.  It’s just like the NBA in that respect, but for vastly different reasons.  Get out your fine tooth comb and take a close look at your league’s constitution to see what is permissible for trading in the offseason.  If you don’t have a constitution then you should begin discussions for setting one because guys like me will look for loopholes everywhere … and seekers find, my friends.

Know your history

As you prepare for your season, compare your team to the guy’s team that won the whole shooting match last year.  Essentially you’ll need to tier guys to see if you would/could measure up over the course of a season.  As an example I’ll give you a look at one of Dobber’s keeper teams, just bear in mind that every league is going to be different as every setup is different. 

Every guy in every league HAS to have a plan.  If you go into an auction or a draft with just a draft list and your favourite fantasy sports mag then you’re probably primed to be run over by the guy with a laptop, a spreadsheet, and a plan already laid out.

Comparing your keeper options with last year’s winner’s team is the way to start.  Obviously whatever that guy put out for his team last year was enough for victory so start comparing options off your squad that could perform close to his starters.  Dobber’s starters, listed in order of importance to his squad, on a team that is going to win this year are:

Evgeni Malkin, Vincent Lecavalier, Marc Savard, Paul Stastny, Jeff Carter, Kristian Huselius, Jaromir Jagr, Dustin Brown, Andy McDonald, Jason Arnott, Rod Brind’amour, Keith Tkachuk, Ryan Whitney, and Rostislav Olesz.  They are all integral to the team’s continuance.  It’s the remainder of the roster that determines where you finish, they represent the chances you take.The “wildcards” on his team are: Marek Zidlicky, Colby Armstrong, Torrey Mitchell, Tom Poti, and Jason King.  It’s these guys that will be dropped or traded for picks during the offseason.  Dobber apparently is considering putting Keith Tkachuk on his trade list but I’d consider adding Olesz to that list too if he could get a pick worth having.

Now if I were in this league, and I’m not, I’d look at Dobber’s team and I’d try to figure out how I can acquire players that could compete with his lineup.  The top of his roster has 4 guys with 100 point potential so I’d have to get my hands on 4 other guys with 100 pt potential just to be able to compete.  His next tier has a couple guys with as high as 80 pt potential but they’re also getting older so let’s group Carter, Huselius, Jagr, Brown, McDonald, Arnott, and Brind’amour into a 50-75 pt grouping.  If all those guys get 75 pts next year (not likely) then I’d need to find 525 pts out of those 7 starting slots. That’s a ceiling mind you so, let’s downgrade that to 450 pts.  That means that I’d have to find 850 pts out of 11 starting slots in order to compete.  That’s not that hard to get to actually, I totaled my top 11 scorers in one of my leagues and got close to 800, and I’m not winning that league this year plus it’s a 16 team league.  In a standard 12 team league you should be able to get close to 850 pts out of your top 11 starters, if you can’t you’re probably not winning.  Sorry to be blunt.  The heart of your squad has to match up with your reigning champ’s, if you’re still in rebuilding mode then … keep rebuilding, but if you have a shot then set a plan and take the guy out.

Dobber’s team next year will be won or lost with what he does with the remainder of his roster.  Maybe he can turn Tkachuk, Zidlicky and/or Olesz into something nice and he shouldn’t have to worry about losing guys like Armstrong, Mitchell, and Poti since he should be able to replace them with similar talent at his draft/auction.  All he needs to do is pay attention.  He starts by tiering starting slots and setting a plan, then he’s already well on his way to what could be a solid repeat next year.

Conclusions

It’s all about a little bit of planning.  Know your league’s rules.  Go ahead and look for loopholes, it’s the innovative guy that creates the need for constitutions in a keeper league. Constitutions are a good thing, it allows for everyone to understand what is permissible. 

Who won last year?  Why?  Duplicate what he did.  Go over his roster carefully because there’s a very good chance he’s going to try to do to you this year what he did to you last year.  Maybe you can’t throw Paul Stastny into your lineup like Dobber can but perhaps Eric Staal gets you there.  Maybe you don’t have Vincent Lecavalier but perhaps you have Ilya Kovalchuk.  No Evgeni Malkin?  Maybe Jason Spezza will let you compete.  It doesn’t matter what names you have for the upper tier because your league won’t necessarily be won there, it’ll be won by finding guys who’ll have career years and top out at 70 pts next season.  Winning your league most likely happens on the 2^nd tier.  Patrick Kane will keep pace with Jason Arnott fairly easily next year, Sam Gagner might be as good an option next year as Jeff Carter was this year, Peter Mueller might be better than Jaromir Jagr next year (if Jagr isn’t playing in Russia); those are just examples though.  Pay attention in the 2^nd half of your draft/auction because that’s probably where your league will be won or lost.  You have to pick better options for filling out your squad than last year’s champ, that’s always a crapshoot anyway, just be smarter than him.  According to Dobber you only have to be right 53% of the time in order to beat him anyway (was that a shot?  I think that was a shot).

Next month I plan to talk about inflation and how to keep the right guys.  I’m looking forward to it and I hope you will be too. 

how’d we do?

so, as we neared the end of the hockey season i sent out an email to every guy who let me take a look around his team this season and i asked how their fantasy hockey season turned out.  i’m basically a bitter, small man so i was looking for a bit of an ego boost and i wanted to know whether we were all wasting our time trying to make things better for the few who wanted another perspective on their team.  i’m going to grade myself to see if i suck at this whole thing or not.  teams and reviews are listed in no particular order since guys just responded to my email as they had time.

Ken Diorio’s Ice Capades and Michael Cauda’s Boom Boom Geoffrion’s Ghost are in the same fantasy league and Mike recommended that Ken get a review from me.  they played each other in the semi-finals and Ken went to the final.  Ken was tooth and nail to make the playoffs and ended up in the final.  there was no word if he won the whole shooting match or not but still, it’s impressive that both guys went so far.  i’m calling both these reviews a win (2-0-0).

Justin Kelly’s Kerry Fraser’s Hair went from 12th to 8th before falling short and being knocked out of playoff contention.  he won 6 matchups in a row but came up short in the end.  Kerry Fraser’s Hair was my first weekly review here at hockeyanalysis.com.  he improved his squad but fell short in the end.  i’d like to call it a win because he improved but i’ll call it a push since he didn’t make the playoffs (2-0-1).

Dean Herback’s Regina Pats stayed where he was in the standings after his review but he did ration his limited transactions to his own benefit throughout the season.  he lost his semi-final matchup to a guy from Winnipeg (couldn’t happen to a nicer guy there Dean) and no it wasn’t me.  in the end the results from Dean’s pool are a push (2-0-2).

Chris Diaz’s Eltingville Express won it’s division but came up short in total points.  he finished in the money and i’ve yet to receive my cut.  you guys do realize that i’m basically a bastard right?  this is a win (3-0-2).

Tim Jarrold’s TJ’s Tigers started the season 4-8 then went 8-0 and finished the year at 12-9 to make the playoffs.  they knocked off the top scoring team in the 1st round and lost to the eventual league champion in the semi’s.  they finished in 4th, just out of the money.  the Tigers say they’re willing to do this team review thing again in the future so i’m definitely calling this one a win (4-0-2).

Joseph Ampon’s Six DeVries of Separation finished in 3rd on the season and when i reviewed his team he was in 2nd.  i told him to go out and get more SOG, knowing that’d translate into more G and his failure to get more G cost him this race.  well, i live and die by this so i have to call this a loss since he fell down the standings (4-1-2).  holy crap Ampon, help a brother out here!  (i’m just kidding Joseph.  your team name last year of “He ain’t heavy, he’s my Brodeur” is an all time fave of mine and i’ve named one of my keeper teams after that concept).

James Nickerson’s UKflames was a keeper team that was already out of the running when i came on the scene.  the question became, how do we make things better for next year?  we traded a slew of vets away, got some young studs and draft picks back and i’m actually rather proud of how much his team sucked toward the end, that’ll make things better at draft time.  this will sound weird but UKflames fell down the standings and this review is a WIN (5-1-2).

Paul Miller’s MillerTime just returned to the championship podium after a sabattical of a few years.  i looked at MillerTime briefly last year but wasn’t able to take a run at helping him during the year last season so i made sure to work him into the mix early this season.  he made a ballsy trade to land Luongo/Erat but it cost him Nicklas Backstrom/Parise and it went a long way to putting him over the top this year.  anyway, dude won so this is an obvious win (6-1-2).

Joey Wilson’s Spezz Dispenser kicked ass and took some names this season.  he finally proved his hockey knowledge to these guys after a couple years of trying.  i say he just cured his own case of addsy-dropsy and the battle was half won.  i’m still waiting for my cut Joey (another joke of course … unless you think i’m serious then send cash to … ).  this is a win (7-1-2).

Stephane Rodiers’ team was called Stephane Rodiers, highly original i know.  i was only able to work with Steve for about 4 days but it was a whirlwind of 4 days.  despite a lot of hot air being thrown around by me the whirlwind produced no results for Stephane in his keeper.  the only thing i can say is that if i’m travelling through the Ottawa valley sometime i could call this guy up and go out for a cup of Joe, that’d be cool.  if we had been able to get ANYTHING done then i could call this a push but … there’s no way, this is a loss (7-2-2).

Steve Knippel’s Olympiques came out on top in a games limit league that i don’t think he enjoyed all that much.  he was playing for pride but at least he got to kick his own brother the Navy captain, around the schoolyard for a bit.  i collected on this one.  Steve and i went to a hockey game last week and watched the Moose destroy the Marlies while i sat there solemnly in my Maple Leafs sweatshirt.  a win (8-2-2).

Ryan Lennox’s camelshuffle squeeked into the playoffs and then began to dominate.  anything can happen in the H2H playoffs and all you need is a ticket to the dance.  Ryan won his league and that’s a win for me too (9-2-2).

Kevin Benkie’s Lucky Charms had a dookie for logo, funny and revolting at the same time.  he went up the standings but i don’t think it was any of my doing.  i suggested that he shop Braydon Coburn around since he’d be a good keeper option for guys and now it looks like Coburn should be among Kevin’s keeps himself.  i guess it was a good thing that nobody took him up on the Coburn option.  i see this as a loss (9-3-2).

gabe y’s Injured Reserve improved from 7th to 3rd but he lost in the first round of the playoffs to a team that he had previously advised about how to stream players in order to win.  that kinda backfired on both of us i guess.  i’m not sure whether this is a win or a loss because he improved but in crunch time the team fell on it’s face.  i’m calling it a push (9-3-3).

Ivan Lee’s Trigun went from 9th place and 34.5 pts out to 2nd place and 9.5 pts back.  unfortunately the guy who won the league was the loudmouth of the league so that’ll be hard to live down.  definitely a win though (10-3-3).

Regi King’s Terminators were in 2nd when i came on the scene and he finished in 2nd place.  i advised him to go out to improve his goals situation and there was no discernable difference by the end of the season.  his team stayed in the same position but he didn’t get the improvement where he needed it so i have to call this a loss (*!$#*)(10-4-3).

my buddy Will Wong’s Chinese Takeout improved in assists and SHP to jump from 4th to 1st and take away his championship.  i advised him to trade PIMs to a competitor at a bargain price because he couldn’t be hurt there and the guy he was trading with could hurt 2 of his main competition in PIMs easily.  it worked like a charm and i get beer and wings out of the deal.  nice. (11-4-3).

Conclusions

well, there we have it.  i actually reviewed over 20 teams this season and only a handful gave me the old screw you in terms of responding back.  i’m hoping that it isn’t because their team imploded in front of them and they blame me.  since they didn’t respond though i’ll assume that no news is good news.

25 pts out of a possible 36 ain’t too shabby at all, that’s .694 hockey.  the Red Wings were the only NHL team with a better win percentage than me at .701 this season.  yeah, ok it’s not even close to fair to compare myself to the Red Wings but … well who cares, i came within an OT winner of taking home the President’s Trophy BABY! 

who’s the MAN?  well, i guess i’d have to say Nik Lidstrom but outside of him, it’s me today. 

let me have this guys, i’ve already told you i’m a small, bitter man.  by the way, thanks to all for their willingness to let me peruse things this year.  i really do love this stuff.

matchup armchair

Montreal (1) vs Boston (8) - i fully maintain that i do not like the Montreal Canadiens but i have to give them props this year, they kicked ass and took some names.  there is little chance for the Bruins in this matchup, unless the Habs miss Komisarek too much and Chara breaks Plekanec in half or something.  the return of Marc Savard affects the Bruins a lot but i still don’t see it being enough.  Habs in 5 (maybe 6).

Pittsburgh (2) vs. Ottawa (7) - the Sens have been utterly lost for a couple months now but they put up a brave face.  it sure was nice of them to take the first shot, perhaps they figure it’s the only shot they’ll get.  i don’t see the Sens sans Alffy and Fisher doing much of anything.  if you’re in my playoff pool then you better take your Sens right off the bat ’cause i see this ending in 5.  the Pens can send Sid and Gene out there separately and there’s no way you can stop them both.  i suspect they’ll concentrate on stopping one of them (Malkin if they believe Sid’s still hurt) and take their chances with the other.  nevertheless, i see the Pens in the Final this year, the weak D and goalie that plagued them before is a thing of the past and MAF is playing as good or better than any goalie in the league right now.

Washington (3) vs. Philadelphia (6) - take a look at points in the standing ever since the date that Washington fired their coach at the quarter pole.  only the Pens got their hands on more points since that date.  it’s just a shame that the Pens and Caps are on a collision course for the 2nd round because i think it’d make for a HUGE Eastern Final.  in fact in my playoff league i may just load up on Sid, Gene and AO in the 2nd round since i expect that matchup to be a barn-burner.  i guess you can tell that i figure that Washington will run away with this series, and they may, but Philly will stay with them … for a bit.  i say the Caps in 6.  Mike Richards will have a big series and i expect some good stats out of Braydon Coburn but in the end it won’t be enough.  when AO doesn’t kill them they’ll be neuteured by Semin (smirk).

New Jersey (4) vs. New York Rangers (5) - this is where i’m calling my upset for the first round.  i think the Rangers have been laying in the weeds and they’re about to explode offensively all over poor Marty Brodeur.  i think that King Hank has the talent to stay with Marty but i don’t see the Devils offense matching up with the Rangers well.  it’ll be a hard fought series that the Rangers will win on the road in 7.  look for a big series out of Scott Gomez, Zach Parise, Jaromir Jagr, and Michal “cracklin’ Rosie” Rozsival.  now if the Devils can turn this into a pure defensive series then John Madden will be the difference maker, but i still say the Rangers will outlast.

Detroit (1) vs. Nashville (8) - some are saying that this is going to be the upset series of the first round but … well, it ain’t happening.  Detroit will walk all over the Preds.  history does indicate that the Wings have some 1st round issues but there are just too many issues for the Preds to pull this off.  they’ll rely on Jason Arnott as a first option too much when he should be a 3rd option on any “great” team; the main part of their team is still too young and unproven, and i just don’t trust their goaltending.  if the Preds win a game then i think they’ll have to consider that a victory overall and if they win 2 games then at least they get an extra gate out of the deal in game 6.  Wings in 5.

San Jose (2) vs. Calgary (7) - nobody in the West is playing better than the Sharks to end the season.  as much as the Canadian in me wants Canadian cities to succeed in the playoffs i just can’t blindly cheer for a Canadian based team if i think the American based team has more talent.  i’ll be a Sharks fan for the next couple months, i pick them to lose to the Pens in the Final.  there has been some debate about who the better goalie is in this matchup so let me just tell you now, it’s Gene Nabokov … hands down.  i like Iggy, i like “PIMy D”ion but Big Joe can dominate a game too and Brian Campbell doesn’t get nearly enough print for what he brings to this table.  this should be a very nice matchup to watch and i’m happy that CBC should be running it out there for me to see every second night.  Sharks in 6.

Minnesota (3) vs. Colorado (6) - the Wild is the closest geographical NHL team to me, and despite that i’ve only seen them play on tv a handful of times this year.  i like them, a lot.  they play inspired defensive hockey and they run a counterattack out there featuring Gaborik and Rolston that few in the NHL can rival.  they still won’t win.  Peter Forsberg is back, he’s healthy and he’s been on fire.  Forsberg has made a supreme talent like Joe Sakic blend into the background.  Joe FREAKING Sakic is on the ice and the other team has to worry about what Forsberg and Stastny are going to do to them.  the Wild can’t stop all of them so i predict they’ll check Forsberg (probably still won’t be able to stop him) and then Sakic will apply the coup de grace.  i’m taking Gaborik in my playoff pool in the first round (we only get to roster a guy for one round) because i don’t see him being available beyond that round.  Avs in 6.

Anaheim (4) vs. Dallas (5) - neither of these teams wanted the other in the first round.  this matchup is going to be a war and it’ll be a main reason why the winner won’t have the jam to beat either Detroit or San Jose in the next round (it’ll be San Jose if Colorado goes ahead and kicks Minny’s ass like i say they will).  this’ll be a really fun series to watch too, if you like old time hockey.  remember the goaltending wars tween Luongo and Turco in the first round last year?  Turco had 3 shutties in regulation (if i remember right) and he lost the series.  people underestimate his value to that team in that system and he’ll remind them again just why it is that he’s drafted so highly in fantasy leagues, dude’s got exceptional skill.  now Giggy is no slouch either but he’s also got Chris Pronger playing in front of him, the Stars don’t have anyone to match up to what Prongs gives.  on an unrelated note Niedermayer, Schneider and Beauchemin should all take on the nicknames of Mooney, Padfoot and Wormtail so that they could fill out the grouping effectively (if you don’t get that then you should read more).  anywho, the Ducks D will hurt you everyway and the Stars won’t be able to respond effectively.  Ducks in 6.

my playoff pool at work

this is kinda fun actually, and it’s not your normal draft’em/pickem pool either.  our pool is such that you can pick any player in the playoffs ONCE for ONE ROUND only.  we pick 10 guys in the 1st round, 8 in the 2nd round, 6 in the 3rd and 4 in the Stanley Cup Final.  it makes the strategy rather fun because you have to predict the entire bracket before you start (if you want to succeed anyway) so that you optimize when is the best time to take which player.  obviously if you hold off on Sid in the first round and they lose (God forbid) then you won’t get the chance to roster him at all.  consequently if you use Iginla in the first round and then the Flames win, you’ve shot the wad for Iggy and you can’t use him again.   kinda fun.

what you need to do is plan out your entire bracket and try to save guys from your Final 4 until you can really use them.  i break things down into pt/game options (you can find that stuff at NHL.com) and then pray that i get my matchups right.   last year i finished 4th, just out of the money.

i’ll do a quick breakdown of the matchups when i have a free hour or so.

really? (more armchair stuff)

who’d you rather face StL/Chi or Edm/Cal?  the Preds get the Central matchups and the Canucks get the Northwest matchups.  i’m thinking this isn’t looking good for you Canuck fans, sorry to say.

Tampa can do the Caps a solid by beating the Canes and then laying down for them tomorrow night.  the Panthers can do the same thing on the weekend when they face Carolina on Saturday and the Caps on Sunday, nothing like getting the benefits of facing a tired team on two back to backs like that. 

only the Pens have more pts than the Caps in the East since the Caps fired their coach at the quarter pole.  how about Bruce Boudreau for coach of the year and AO for the Hart?  even if the Caps don’t make it in this is a huge burst in production and i’m not on board the AO for the Hart bandwagon (i wasn’t before if they didn’t make the playoffs).

the Preds were down 3 goals against the Blues and came back to steal that game.  Chris Mason stopped everything and got the win after Dan “Frodo” Ellis got pulled.  i’m still staying far away from Mason in keeper leagues, Rinne is the guy to look at there for keepers.

did you watch the Flames/Oilers last night?  kinda deflating to lose by a goal at home to your biggest geographical rival.   happy golfing Oilers.

now that Dallas and Colorado are both in, perhaps one of them should tank their last couple games so they can have the honour of finishing 6th and get Minny in the first round.  you finish 5th and you get Anaheim, good luck with that.  then again any of the bottom teams could still sneak into 6th place leaving you to face either Detroit or San Jose in the first round, and you don’t want that either.  i’m not even so sure that facing Minny is what you want, they could surprise but they’re still the best matchup for any of the bottom dwellers.

Buffalo’s still breathing, barely.  no doubt the Leafs would’ve loved to put the nail in the coffin but they couldn’t hold a lead … again.  the Leafs blogger here on the site noted that McCabe needs to go and i just want to say that i wholeheartedly agree.

the Sens are lost.  unless the matchup against the Canes in the first round i don’t see them as being able to beat anybody who’s going to be in.  maybe they should sign Ryan Miller and get rid of both goalie options they have available right now.  what am i saying, there’s no way they’d be able to find the money to sign Miller to a sheet.

stupid freaking Bruins and Flyers.  i’d rather have the Sabres in than you.  maybe the silver lining is that the Flyers might get the Pens in the first round and they’d get turfed quickly.  if you’re in a playoff pool like mine where you can only pick guys for one round and then can’t pick them again, you might want to wait on picking your Pens til the face the Habs, now that series will be a shootout.

the New York Rangers are going to surprise teams in the playoffs this year.

the Sharks are still in line to take away the President’s trophy and with the way they’re playing i wouldn’t put it past them.  the Wings only need a point in their last 3 games to shut the door on the Pacific Division champs though.

Owen Nolan has come up big in big games for the Flames.  he’s still a RW4 at best in fantasy but it’s good to see the greyheads still contributing.

Ales Hemsky left the ice with a lower body injury and if there’s any reason for him to sit out the last game of the season i think this is it.  he’s contributed a ton to that team this season, let him rest.

Justin Williams and Ray Whitney returned for the Canes last night although Williams apparently left again with an injury.  both may have some value if you count playoffs in your pool, although i doubt it either will have significant value.

weekend armchair (cont’d)

i think Tim Thomas must read my blog because i keep thinking that the B’s would be on the outside looking in and then they say by their own actions, “screw you Fergusson”.  Thomas with a shuttie and the uphill battle for the Caps to take the 8 spot looks REALLY daunting.  Washington is in Florida tonight and they’re 3 pts down on Philly now with Philly on the Island.  too many losses from here on out could really be a death knell if it’s accompanied by a win from the wrong team.

David Krejci has 7 pts in his last 3 games.  he’s getting much more assists than goals so it could be he ends up in the Marc Savard mould.  the B’s still need more consistent snipers, they won’t want to rely on Marco Sturm forever and Glen Murray is pretty long in the tooth.

i didn’t see it but apparently Chris Neil absolutely crushed Jeremy Reich with a shoulder to the head and Reich is a day to day decision.  i’ve made it pretty clear that i have a fantasy hockey man-crush on Chris Neil and i even consider him as a keeper option if your league counts PIMs.

the Kings scored the first and last goals of the game but unfortunately the Stars put up 7 in between.  Loui Erickson (move along) with 2 goals, Mike Ribeiro 3 assists and Stephane Robidas went 1 and 2.  im liking Robidas more and more as the season progresses for putting up big minutes and carrying the load while both Zubov and Boucher have been away.

Marty Turco only faced 14 shots on the day, stopping 12 of them.  i’m pretty sure i could stop 10 of them if i know that i’m only facing 14 on the day.  one never knows though and i can be way too blustery for my own good.

i love CBC’s “think hockey”.  Paul Maurice was on there talking about how to hit a guy, cleanly, respectfully, but still putting the hurt on him.  it was good to see when i see way too many sticks, hands and elbows coming up toward the head as a guy tries to land a hip or bodycheck.

Wade Dubielewicz made 51 freaking saves and had a lead in the 3rd period but couldn’t keep the Flyers from tying the score and eventually getting 2 pts in a shootout.  it’s too bad really, why can’t someone on that D corps throw his body in front of a puck to keep his goalie from feeling more rubber welts?  Doobie-doobie-doo was phenomenal for them to end the season last year and i was thinking that he was doing a yeoman’s job again.  when Freddie Meyer leads your D in ice time you have more concerns than how to stop pucks from getting to the net.

Kyle Okposo got 17 mins of ice time and an assist.  by the end of next season he’ll have 50 pts and be a top 6 forward, and that’ll be just the beginning of an Iginla-like career (yeah, i know everyone makes that comparison but it’s still apt).

the Caps are still alive after a shuttie tonight and their last 3 games are all at home.  they get Carolina, Tampa and Florida to end the year and they need to worry about the Canes the most (obviously).

Jiri Tlusty has 30 goal upside … in 2 years.  he might get 20 next year.  he went 2 and 1 in a nothing game against Montreal last night.  if my buddy Paul reads this … PBBBBBBBLT!

take a look at Jeff Halpern’s stat line since he became a Lightning.  nobody traded at or near the deadline has outpointed him this season.  he’s getting top minutes and has fit in wonderfully along with Jussi Jokinen.  it’s funny that the Stars gave up defensively responsible forwards in order to land extra talent, i’m still betting that all guys involved will be better in their new places.

Chicago will win the Ladd/Ruutu trade by a landslide.  Ruutu has been putting up pts at a higher rate than he did in Chicago but Ladd will be the better option in both the short and long terms.

Mike Smith was back in a uni after missing 2 games with a sprained knee.  i still don’t expect him to start much nor do they need him too, Ramo’s doing just fine over this short term.

Brad Boyes tried to lead the charge for the Blues only to come up short against the Hawks.  40 goals and 20 assists, trust me the assist totals will go up next year but he’ll continue to be a goal scoring force.

the Hawks scored 2 shorties to go way out in front against the Blues.  one shortie is rare enough but everyone on the Blues PP should be embarrassed to give up 2 in a game.

Nashville has the easiest schedule of all the teams fighting for a playoff spot at the bottom of the Western Conference.  they have 4 games left (Det, STL, STL,CHI), Edmonton has 2 left (Cal and Van).  give me the Preds but at the same time, i can’t stand the Oil.

the Flames fired 32 shots at Dwayne Roloson but came out on the wrong end of a home loss to Edmonton.  Flames fans hate losing to the Oilers at any time but especially with playoff spots on the line. 

i read in the paper today that Joe Sakic once said that there isn’t anybody in the league right now more magical with the puck than Ales Hemsky.  that is a HUGE endorsement from where i sit.  it’s funny that people haven’t really considered Hemsky as a keeper option prior to this year but he’s definitely snuck into those ranks with his exploits this season.

i hate to say it but there’s a good chance that the Canuckleheads could be on the outside looking in.  they’re on a 4 game losing streak and they have to turn this around fast.

Pilot Mound MB gets my vote for Hockeyville.  i actually know a guy from there.

how to be a real sports Dad

the story is told of an Oregon dad who saw a picture of his son flipping the bird to a UCLA player during a PAC-10 basketball game.  when the kid went home for the weekend, dad took away his car and then wrote a letter to Sports Illustrated to tell the world about the incident.  SI had done an article on poor behaviour by fans so they printed every word of dad’s letter.

let us now look at the case of Patrick Roy.  i used to have mad respect for Roy and he used to be my wife’s fave player as she chanted his name like she was Bruce Lee about to kick your ass, but i’ve got to admit that i’m still seething about this brawl incident in the Q.  yes, boys fight and yes fighting is a part of hockey but people miss the point when they say it’s absurd to remove fighting from Jr hockey.  they say that the discussion isn’t pertinent since fighting is a part of the fabric of the game but i make one correction; fighting is part of the fabric of the NHL game.  but we’re not discussing the NHL game; we’re talking about the JUNIOR game, we’re talking about minors, we’re talking about our kids.  for Patrick to send Jonathan down the ice to pummel some poor kid who doesn’t want to go, makes my skin crawl.  first of all, that’s a kid that you’re encouraging to do this and secondly, that’s your son.  do you really want thuggery to be part of his hockey experience?  with one whistle and a sweep of the hand Roy turned his own son into a thug.   don’t argue with me about how these guys are 18 and 19 years old, i realize that.  that doesn’t take away from the fact that they’re still kids, juniors.  Jonathan Roy turned 18 a mere two weeks ago.  it still seems obvious that he has some growing up to do.

i can’t tell you how angry i am about this.  there’s a huge difference between allowing fighting in the NHL game and encouraging our children toward crap like this.  if an NHL goon wants to make this decision for his life then that’s his business; he’s a MAN.  he has the self-awareness to get to that place and make that decision for himself.  however, most Jr hockey players AREN’T men, they’re boys.  there are 19 yr olds mixed into the league but the best 19 yr olds with talent are usually  with pro clubs in the AHL or with the big club that drafted them.

let the talk about eliminating fighting from Jr hockey go on.  it is not a waste of time and it won’t affect the NHL game one iota, except to protect our kids.  i’m not a dad, but i very much have wanted to be and even still, how can anyone haphazardly wave his own son into the fray like that.  it makes me angry, it truly does. 

there’s talk about how the Habs wanted to retire Patrick’s number next year but now there’s talk of not doing it because of this incident.  i couldn’t care less about that debate.  i wonder how Nadeau’s dad feels about Patrick Roy.  the elder Nadeau is much more a true sports dad if you ask me, he must’ve taught his son something that lasts.  if Nadeau never plays at a higher level it’ll make no difference, he’s a sportsman.