Shallow Frozen Water

Sunday morning armchair

This week’s trades

Martin St. Louis for Andy MacDonald, James VanRiemsdyk, TJ Hensick, and Anton Stralman - i’m helping a guy with his keeper team and this deal is hopefully going to be made in the near future (mum’s the word).  he has no shot at things this year but he’s well on the way to competing as soon as maybe next year.  the guy at the other end of this deal gave up a lot of potential and youth to get a shot at the championship now.  this league is essentially a points only league so MacDonald’s +/- doesnt hurt like it would in just about any other league and adding the kids is enough to make a fantasy player giddy.

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Merry Christmas to you my brothers (and sisters if by some miracle a chick ever happens to read this)!  what’s that you say?  Christmas happened over a week ago?  actually there’s a significantly sized religious community that holds their Christmas celebration in early January at the traditional time that the Magi (that would be the Wise Men) came to visit the saviour boy-child.  it also happens to be the time that all our family is finally together so we had our celebration yesterday.  it meant that i missed most of the Leafs game but i caught a chunk of the CBC late game and got to see everything in retrospect anyway.  at any rate, Merry Merry to you, may all your presents be game worn jerseys.

notice Jason Pominville of late?  2 assists last night.  he had a brutal October but he’s been more than solid since November.  he gets underestimated because Vanek garners much of the attention in Buffalo but he’ll provide solid stats for any fantasy team as a RW2.  80 pts isnt out of the question again and i’m betting that an offer of JP Dumont could easily land Pom and you’d end up ahead of the game.

Maxim Afinogenov got just over a minute’s worth of ice and is pretty much done as a fantasy option.  i don’t care how deep your league is you probably could use some call-up ahead of Max.

Sid the kid went all snaky with 21 PIMs against the Panthers.  his first season in the league he had 110 PIMs but i suspect that was because he felt like he had to prove himself everywhere he turned but he’s well on his way to breaking his career record this season.  i’ve been searching for PIMs in one of my leagues and those 21 will probably boost me 6 pts in one night.  NIIIIIIIIIIIIICE.

Richard Zednik is still getting ice time and even got a PPG last night.  he has virtually no fantasy value and shouldnt still be on a power play.

Rene Bourque continues his hot play of late with an even strength assist and 2 PIMs last night.  you might not be able to get him for the price of a Ryan Kesler now but Martin Erat is probably enough.

Todd Bertuzzi went 1 and 1 after a frigid goal scoring cold streak prior to mid December.

Jarome Iginla didnt take a single shot on goal.  that’s just lazy dude … slacker.  uh, Jarome … you know that’s a joke right buddy? 

i can’t believe how good Dominic Moore has been for Jason Blake.  i’ve taken some grief over Blake but as a fantasy option he shoots the puck and i was hoping for 60 pts.  it could still happen.  shut up, sure it could.

i like Mike Fisher too but he is not the guy you want QB’ing your PP.  the Sens spent the first half of the 3rd period on the PP but couldnt muster a thing.  their D is abysmal and i can’t think of any team more in need of a puck mover.  good luck to them.

i don’t think the Leafs should trade Pavol Kubina.  he’s actually very valuable.  they can get a lot for Kaberle and they should but Kubina contributes across the board and i just plain like him.

did you see Alex Semin try to fight Marc Staal?  ugh.  that was so girly dude.  it looked like you were in a handslap fight with your sister and she was schooling you.  i don’t know, maybe you should open your eyes at least.

Justin Williams went 1 and 1 for the Canes.  he’s a sniper who has been asleep or injured this season.  he WILL show his mettle, count on it, and the Canes offense is going to burst back on to the scene.  trade for Justin while you still can, especially you keeper folk.  his price shouldnt be very high.

Viktor Hedman will be a Tampa Bay Lightning.  ok, well i don’t know that but they sure do need him.

Josh Harding takes a slashing penalty in the 3rd with a 2-1 lead against the champs?  what is going through your skull kid?  5 more minutes and you have a WIN  … at HOME … against the WINGS.  so instead, you have a SOL.  how’s that feel?  that slash feel good now?

Brent Burns played over 33 minutes, took 7 SOGs and got an assist to go along with the goal and 2 assists he got in his last game.  if this is a turning point in his season then the chance to buy low has passed.  don’t say i didn’t warn ya.

fellow sfw blogger jstainer pointed out on Friday that Jiri Hudler does more with less ice time than many of the “stars” on his own team.  i use the ” ” because i happen to think that Hudler is a star in his own right.

you been watching the World Jr. Championships?  i’ve seen a bit but i’m on holidays so it’s not like my wife wants me glued to the hockey game EVERY night.  anyway, Ryan Ellis is drawing comparisons to Brian Rafalski and i think that’s a very apt comparison.  i was listening to the radio today and sports radio in Toronto was saying that the Leafs should look at Ellis if they’re outside the top 5 and that should be the case.

David Backes has 12 goals and is now over 100 PIMs.  that gives him power forward status in my books and i think it’s very likely that 20 goals and 200 PIMs can be done for him this season.  you may not realize how rare a thing that is.

there are a couple teams that could end up following the Penguins route to stardom over the next couple years, i’m thinking of the Kings and Coyotes particularly, but let me also shine some light on the St Louis Blues.  Backlund is going to be a special C, TJ Oshie too, Boyes is already a goal-scoring star, McDonald is underrated and EJ is a stud D that will draw back memories of Stevens or Pronger for Blues fans.  throw in some talented toughness and a treeling AHL goaltender (Ben Bishop is like 6′7″ or something) and you’ll have yourself a nice mix of talent for the next decade or so.  makes me want to sing the Blues, except nobody wants to hear that.

Alex Steen went 1 and 2 but he’s a fantasy afterthought.  i think a good season for him would be Fisher or Lombardi types of numbers and in standard leagues that just would never be good enough. 

i’ve been watching Kris Russell (another small D) and he put up a pretty nice month for himself in Dec.  if you need a D6 or something there are lots of worse options right now.

Fedor Tyutin with 17 PIMs that’s a nice bonus for what is essentially an offensive D this season who has majored on PP time.  it’s funny, i pictured him as a bit more of a defensive guy with the Rangers last year and his 20 pts on the season bear that out i think.

Erik Cole and Sam Gagner look to have some chemistry brewing.  they both need something to brew.  what’s the drinking age in Alberta anyway?  can Gagner HAVE a brew?

Marty Turco is 10-5-1 since Nov 26/08 and the Stars are still outside of a playoff spot.  Kelly Hrudey called it that the Stars will make the playoffs and much of it will be because of their goaltender.  guys have dumped on this guy all season and i hope that he continues to make them eat it.

there were 3 separate fights in the Stars/Oilers games.  gotta love these conference tilts eh?  it looked like Dustin Penner was back on the farm in Morden throwing some hay bails around they way that he put Landon Wilson to the ice in the first period.  by the way, Dustin Penner is a big “buy” in my books right now, several Oilers are.

if your league counts SHP then you need to take a look at Richard Park.  he has no value otherwise but he sure kills when he … kills.  he’s got 4 SHP already this season, he had 5 last year and 3 the year before that.  SHP is a truly rare fantasy stat so if you can find anyone with more than a handful then you have a goldmine.

 Jonathan Cheechoo is still playing with Joe, at least some of the time.  Cheech got 3 helpers last night.  i saw one league this week where Cheech got move for Marty freaking Reasoner, what kind of a STEAL is that trade?  i say good on the guy for getting Cheech at a great time, but i also know the guy.  attaboy Marc.

i’ve mentioned that Trent Hunter is a good option as a RW3or4 right?  well, he is.

holy crap, Doug Weight got into a fight, and lived.  oh ok, he was only fighting Christian Ehrhoff but still.  he’s got value in points only leagues.

Erik Ersberg was supposed to return to action last night i thought but that doesnt seem to be the case.  Jon Quick battled toe to toe with Antero Niittymaki for a shootout win.  Ersberg should take the gig back but it appears that it may take a little while.  Quick has been rather stellar, good enough that the Kings figured they could trade away Labarbapapa and be fine. 

December was a hot month for Scott Hartnell and i’d be betting that he’ll keep boiling over in January too.  goals and PIMs galore.  i told you last week that Mike Ribeiro wasnt enough to get him in one of my leagues and now i wonder if Nathan Horton would even be enough.

Teddy Purcell is a guy you should become acquainted with.  he finished 3rd in AHL scoring last year but couldve won the whole thing had he not been called up to LA for a well deserved stint.  he’s gotten 6 pts in the 11 games he’s played in this season and i think he’s got Jason Spezza upside.

Fantasy Friday Fix

It’s been a while since I last wrote here due to the timing of Christmas and all. But glad to be back at it.

The Winter Classic was a good game last night, likely the best in terms of actual hockey. The ice conditions didn’t play a huge factor and the weather wasn’t too cold that the level of play dropped. I was blessed with the opportunity to attend the Heritage Classic in Edmonton and it was so very cold. No amount of bench heaters, funky toques (or beanies for your Americans!) or good gloves can keep you warm in that weather, and so it was good to see a great game played in Wrigley in front of tons of fans. It ended up being a little bit of a let down when the Wings ran away with it in the third, but they are the defending champs so perhaps it should have been expected. After the nostalgia of the Heritage Classic and the Crosby shootout Victory of last year’s edition it would have been hard to keep the pace.

Hudler is just one of those guys that thrives with low ice time. He played less then most of the rest of the forward core aside from the 4th line and still put in 3 points. Simply amazing. He’s never really ran with the chance when given more ice time and the big guns need time to work their magic as well so I don’t really see this changing much until maybe next year if Hossa moves on.

And how cold was it for Chris Chelios, who saw less then 2 minutes on the Ice. I’m not sure why he didn’t play more, particularly since it wasn’t a really close game near the end. Not really of fantasy significance but interesting nonetheless.

Rafalski went through a stretch of games in November where he fell off the map a bit, but he has rocketed back onto the scene yet again. In his last 5 games he’s had 7 points and is going to be one of the tops in the league for his position this year when all is said and done. If he stays healthy he should get 60 points or so.

Contract year for Havlat and no mysterious injury yet. Veeeeeery interesting. He’s having a solid year and will probably earn himself a good contract once again so he can sit at home and watch more hockey next season.

I made the mistake of picking up Byfuglien yesterday simple because his stats looked so good over the past month. After doublechecking today I remembered he had that big 4 point game that accounted for much of his production over that span. Oops. I’ll be watching him over the next couple games but I’ll likely be dropping him again soon.

I guy I really like to be a producer in the yeears to come is Troy Brouwer. A 100 point WHL guy, he started off the season on a pretty fast pace but has really dropped off over the past 6 weeks or so. In my mind this makes him a prime candidate to go out and try and get in a keeper league to stash away on the bench somewhere. Just a guess, but I am betting his value will be MUCH higher by this time next year.

The Penguins get Whitney back and Fleury off of injury and suddenly cant win games. One would think that bringing Whitney in to man the point on the PP would help, but the Penguins are having all sorts of troubles in that area. I can’t even begin to guess the future of the defense in Pittsburgh with Letang, Goligoski and Whitney all trying to find their spot in the lineup. Once Gonchar gets back one of those guys is going to end up seeing a bigger hit in their ice time but who it will be is beyond me.

I am a full on believer in Krejci’s talent now and made a trade based on that which I’ll get to later.
I also think Lucic is quickly moving up the ranks as one of my favorite playeres in the league. He does everything!

Perennial underrated star Marc Savard sits 4th in league points and I tell myself every year that I won’t forget about him at draft time. He sits on none of my rosters right now so obviously I did’t take my own advice yet again.

Dennis Wideman has been lights out this year and is only really playing in his 5th NHL season. The train has left to pick him up and he’s going to have a few good years in a row now.

I live in a small city and the local news/sports/weather/cattle announcer pronounced Ovechkin’s name as O Check Vin. It’s not just in the US that some people don’t know anything about hockey…

This same reporter also pronounced Labarbera as La Barber Yair Oh.

I feel somewhat bad for Huet and the way things have gone down in Chicago, but he also needs to take advantage when chances are given to him. His late season numbers last season in Washington (.936 Save %, 1.63 GAA) are not an indication of his skill though, and what we are seeing now is generally what to expect from Huet and they are much closer to his career average numbers. As Chicago continues to improve they will want to be sure their goaltending is as good as they can make it and I wonder if Huet will be in that picture. Crawford is a solid AHL goaltender but I doubt he’ll be the guy that comes into the NHL and steals a spot either. All of this being said I am trying to move Huet in one league to get a better goaltender as I don’t believe he is going to have a stellar career as a starter in the league. Time will tell though.

Lindy Ruff grew up in the small town right beside where I grew up and I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for the Sabres. He must see the writing on the wall of Afinogenov as he’s getting next to no ice time any more and is sort of going through the motions. I wouldn’t be shocked if this is the last we see of him in the NHL (Afino, not Ruff).

It “seems” like Kaberle is having a down year because of the way the team is playing, but he’s still putting up a decent amount of assists on pace with his usual and his +/- is a little worse. Considering he started the season off with 2 points in 9 games, he’s turned things around a bit and should be around the 50-55 point range yet again. Next year when some of the young guys are a bit better and the Leafs might get their powerplay ramped up a bit, he could see his production go up a tick still.

I don’t see huge upside from Kulemin and I need to find a Leafs fan to pawn him off on. Any takers?

Labarbera supposedly looked pretty solid last night (I didn’t see the game), but I can’t see that lasting long. He’s just a flat out bad goalie. Give him a few games and the full wrath of Canuck nation should be aimed towards him. Now he’ll probably go get back to back shutouts in the next 2 games just to make me look dumb.

I drafted Rich Peverley a long time ago in a league and had guys asking me who the heck he was. I thought he might be a bit more productive this year with some good opportunities, but he’s been just ‘ok’. He’s been helpful with the odd point in a REALLY deep league but aside from that I don’t see him contributing much in any department.

I’d love to hear some thoughts on Alexander Edler from some people. I am a fan in the sense that he’ll contribute as a 4-6 Defenseman on most fantasy rosters, but if you Wikipedia him there are some who see him as a potential Lidstrom. Huh?

Trading Post

I am in a fun keeper league that is Commished by one of the writers from Dobberhockey.com. It’s a free league that I inherited a team from last season. The Commish of the league owned Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin. In an attempt to try and give everyone a chance to actually be competitive in the league without redrafting (how he got all 3 I’m not sure, it happened before I got there) he has put into place all sorts of funky rules which essentially decimate the roster of all of its talent if they win 2 years in a row etc. It makes for a very interesting offseason and makes drafting HUGE.

Roster are quite deep but goaltending is a HUGE part of the scoring setup and it is head to head. My team is currently in dead last spot for a variety of reasons but the #1 reason was goaltending. MY 3 goaltenders were Dipietro, Garon and JDD from Edmonton. So many weeks I wasn’t even getting my minimum goalie games in for a week. My forward core is pretty decent, particularly at C and I have a pretty solid farm and so decided that I needed to do something to fix the situation. I made the following 2 trades:

I traded Stamkos, Toews, Garon, Drouin-Deslauriers, Callahan and Pavelec

for

Spezza, Cleary, Downie, Tellqvist, Giguere and Eberle.

I have to move some premium C talent in order to try and fix my goaltending a bit, and Spezza is no slouch. I’ll also have the chance to hopefully restock some of my young guys in the draft next season as I am hoping to bump a few players like Radulov (hopefully!) off of my farm and into the big leagues. I also did this right before the WJC happened knowing that I might not be able to get Eberle for so cheap after the tournament.

This deal led to the second:

I trade Spezza, Hejduk and Dipietro

for

Franzen, Gagner and MA Fleury.

Fleury has had some injury problems but nowhere near what Dipietro has and the ship should get righted in Pittsburgh soon enough. Gagner has REALLY looked good alongside Cole in Edmonton the past week or so and in my opinion is breaking out of his season long slump. As for Franzen he’ll get me some goals which I badly needed on my assist heavy team.

Good, bad or otherwise, I am glad that my goaltending is now not going to be as big of a concern as it was. With some luck and good drafting in the offseason I can hopefully replace some of the young talent I had lost and have a much better showing for next season.

je suis habitant

a buddy of mine has been talking about this one league that he joined this year.  he got me in contact with the commish of the league to see if there’s any minor tweaking that could be afforded to the Commish’s team and that’s how i came to meet Chahe.  he’s the commish of the Moscow Hockey League IV.  it’s a 20 team H2H that rewards offense and doesnt regard PIMs at all.  the settings for this league are: G, A, +/-, PPP, FW, W, GAA, and SV%.  i like the addition of FW as an option although C’s in a league like this take on some extra value.  to compensate for that extra value Chahe created 2 extra roster spots for wingers only.  that’s a very nice compromise.  i like the settings here although i’d still add PIMs as a category just to make this a little more fun.

let’s take a look at je suis habitant.

C Eric Staal CAR (B+) - any stud C you can get in a FW league is gold and you have a couple of them.

C Pavol Datsyuk DET (A) - he’s just a magician.

C Mikhail Grabovski TOR (B-) - that’s probably a generous grade but the upside is pretty good for him

C Andrew Cogliano EDM (C+) - i expected more but it just hasnt been there for him this year quite as much as it seemed to be there for him last year.

LW Alexander Ovechkin WAS (A+) - the only way he’d be more valuable to you would be if he won a tonne of faceoffs too.

LW Sergei Samsonov CAR (C) - in a league this size you’re going to have to make do with guys in your lineup that you just don’t like, this is one of those guys for me.  he’ll contribute some so at least he has some value.

LW Patrik Elias NJ (A-) - it’s surprising how well he’s done this season and how much he’s returned to previous levels of stat output.

RW Alexei Kovalev MON (A-) - he’s back.  just watch him and AK46 work some magic for a while.

RW Alexander Semin WAS (A-) - if he’s healthy then he gets an A+ and he’s truly monstrous in the league.  that’s if he’s healthy.

RW Matt D’Agostini MON (C) - he’ll be a solid 3rd line type for the Habs i expect.  there’s some upside here and he certainly has a place in a league like this.

W Nikolai Kulemin TOR (C-) - i expected more from him this season since there was so much opportunity for him to show his mettle.  he’s not even Samsonov good and i want him to be Kovalev good.

W Richard Zednik FLA (D+) - he’s still playing?  ok, that was harsh.  actually for a guy who’s never had more than a 50 pt season he’s had a remarkable career.

D Denis Grebeshkov EDM (C+) - he’s stepped into the gap as a decent D4 for the Oil actually.  he’s got a good career ahead of him but as for this year if he makes 30 pts then he’s done well for you.

D Sheldon Souray EDM (B+) - i wanted to give him an A- but his constant injury status over the years drags down my opinion of him.  i’m hoping that Alexander Semin doesnt become Sheldon Souray for his career, loads of talent but a perpetual band-aid.

D empty

D empty

D empty

D empty - seriously?  4 empty D slots?  i can see cases with a couple empty slots in H2H but 4?

G Tim Thomas BOS (A-) - people don’t believe in this guy.  he’s been a journeyman and he’s paid his dues.  much of the B’s success has to be credited in the first half to the season that TimTom has put together.

G Manny Fernandez BOS (B) - when he’s gotten to play he’s been stellar.  this is a solid one-two punch for you and i don’t suggest you change a thing here.

BN Jon Quick LA (B-) - Ersberg should be back this week it seems and Labarbapapa has been shipped to Vancouver so actually Quick’s value just went up a tiny bit with his nice showing of late and the fact that the traffic in front of him has changed.

BN Craig Anderson FLA (B-) - people are too quick to crown a new starter for the Cats but they forget just how talented Tomas Vokoun really is.  i still say Tom will get the lion’s share (well a lion is a cat right?) of the starts and Andy will have a good chair to watch the fun.

BN Brian Boucher SJ (C-) - when Nabokov is healthy he starts ALL THE FREAKING TIME!  if Bouche wants some time he’ll need to go Harding/Gillooley on Gene or something.

BN Martin St. Pierre BOS (D-) - you only had this guy to try and win FW last week.  he doesnt belong here.

BN Jerred Smithson NAS (D-) - see Martin St. Pierre

BN Dean McAmmond OTW (D-) -see Martin St. Pierre although he does have a tiny bit of talent to rely on.  very tiny.

BN Patrice Bergeron BOS (B) - when he got another concussion my immediate thought was relief that i didnt have him on a single one of my teams.  you can’t drop him, he has too much value and you can’t trade him until you know better what’s going on for him.  good luck waiting on this one.

BN Michael Frolik FLA (C) - i put the grade a little higher because i believe his upside is higher than what he’s shown this season.

IR Steve Sullivan NAS (na) - he hasnt played but if he’s healthy he’ll be a very nice bonus for your team.

now i see what you’ve done here.  your bench is full of C’s so that you can hopefully win FW during last week’s contest and you do make a lot of moves in this league.  i’m actually in favour of lots of moves in H2H since it enables you to get more guys into your lineup during a weekly matchup, the only problem here is that your league is 20 strong and 20 roster slots deep so that your waiver wire might as well have ME on it because i could get you just as many points as a good chunk of the options on your wire.  i don’t think a streaming strategy (which you’re trying to do) is going to work if there aren’t guys on the wire to pursue.

empty roster spots are easier to forgive in H2H than it is in roto simply because you can max out your slots on a daily basis if you choose to do without a D or 2.  unfortunately, there isnt much on the wire to slot into your lineup and you’re still without a couple options on your D.  in many respects i love your offense (who wouldn’t) but you kinda hamstring your approach by not icing a team that can contribute through every roster spot.  most of my advice will be to try and get you some better options on your bench, options that hopefully can fall into a roster spot that you aren’t using at the moment.  it’ll mean some hard choices though.

Waiver Wire Options

one can easily imagine that there’s virtually nobody worth owning on a waiver wire in a 20 team league, and there isn’t.  once anyone of value comes available you have to pounce.  here’s some options that you may or may not want to pursue.

Dan Hamhuis - you don’t count PIMs in this league which is Ham’s best category this season but there is so little to go after on your wire and you need D options.

Brad Stuart - he’s a better option than Hamhuis and a solid D option in general.

Scott Walker - he shouldnt be on a wire in a 20 team league.  he’s known more for some PIMs but for offense he’s also no stone handed troglodyte.  he’s a 50 pt guy and he never should’ve been waived in the first place.

Teddy Purcell - he’s got skills and the Kings are young so he’ll get some opportunity too.  it’s well worth the little to no risk in rostering him.

you should add Walker asap.  he’ll give decent offensive stats and there’s a hardnosed quality that i like although you don’t need for this league.  you actually had Hamhuis on your team last week but dropped him to get more FW, you should get him back if you can.  there isn’t much else on the wire to pursue right now.

Trading Options

it’s a difficult time to advise you on how to help your team.  your best trade bait is your C’s but you probably shouldnt move either Staal or Datsyuk while everything is so cloudy on Bergeron.  if that changes then your trade bait improves.  right now you best trade bait is … (gulp) … Grabovski.  you need to improve your D and he can help you do that.  if the Bergeron situation gets better then he can certainly make your search for viable D a lot easier. 

trade Mikhail Grabovski and Matt D’Agostini to Tim Tim Cheeseburger for Kimmo Timonen and Matt Niskanen - Tim wants FW which you can spare and he wants a winger who can score.  he’s probably going to decline this but i’d still open the discussion with the end being that you want to see if you can get Timonen off of him.  if you can get both then just realize that Niskanen has had a very good month since Zubov got shelved and he’s taken on more responsibility.  it’d be nice to get both but Timonen is more important.

trade Mikhail Grabovski to India Ice Bears for Alex Edler - Bear wants more FW and you have some extra to spare.  Edler is very much underrated and he’s showing flashes of late ever since Salo was shelved.

trade Craig Anderson or Jonathan Quick to Dwarf Invasion for Joe Corvo - this is a bit of a longshot but Dwarf is rostering ZERO goaltenders and there are none on the wire to pick up.  Corvo is a solid contributor who shoots the puck on a team that scored a tonne last year.  Justin Williams is back to help the offense and Corvo is their 1st option from the back end.  if Dwarf gets at least one goalie who’s starting then he has a shot at making the minimum start requirement weekly.  he’s probably going to say no to this because one goalie doesnt mean he’ll make the requirement anyway.  if you’re considering it, you don’t want to trade him BOTH of those goalies although you may consider sending him Boucher and one of those goalies if you can get Corvo and … i don’t know, something like Ales Kotalik would be huge.

Conclusions

i don’t know what value there was in that whole exercise.  obviously you can see those needs as easily as i can, i just hope that something can be done to try and help you to a better place.  you’re in 7th place right now i’m hoping that the extra offense from some extra D puts you over the top.  in the meantime there’s a couple waiver moves that’ll help you and i suggest you get to that too.

good luck with this one.  it’s a hard league to make a run in.  your situation could be helped by getting some answers on Bergeron and then parlaying him into something you can use.  it was a pleasure hanging around your league.

world junior report

Happy World Juniors, everyone. It’s the most wonderful time of year.

I love what TSN does for hockey, but why can’t they televise more games from the division that doesn’t include Team Canada? I have read that Karlsson, Hedman, Backlund, Markstrom, Svensson-Paajarvi, Filatov, Grachev, Klyukin, Sateri, Rajala, and many others are having good tournaments, but without being able to even see the highlights in some cases, there’s very little I can know aside from what’s written on the scoresheet.

I have been able to watch the Canadian and American games, and very soon now, a game from the Russians.

Tavares and Hodgson are studs. Tavares is a lethal shooter who is just victimizing the weak defences supposedly covering him on the powerplay, but he has shown a deliberate willingness to set-up his teammates as well. Hodgson has that elite vision and decision making that makes me expect a Paul Stastny-ish impact for the Canucks next season.

The team is obviously very talented in spite of many potential stars being held at the NHL level. Jamie Benn has shown why he’s destroying the Dub this year, and done nothing but score (4 in 3 games). Ryan Ellis (’09 eligible) has been as impressive as his pre-game puck-on-stick drill. You have to see it to believe it. PK Subban has shown leadership and some quality imagination, and the rest of the defensive corps (Hickey, Pietrangelo, Myers, Aulie, Goloubef) have been both literally, and figuratively, huge.

The goalies (Tokarski and Pickard) have yet to have been significantly tested, so we’ll see how they respond to tougher competition. I don’t foresee any problems. By the way, both the Canadian goalies join Swede Jacob Markstrom with a gaudy 95% save percentage.

The Americans, who brought a big, veteran team this year, have also looked very good and the game on New Year’s Eve versus Canada will be an excellent one. They generate much of their offense from a stacked top line, and while James van Riemsdyk and Colin Wilson have been as good as expected, it has been Jordan Schroeder who has impressed me most. It reminds me of when Patrick Kane dominated for this team in his draft year. Schroeder has been climbing the scouting rankings for some time, and I think it’s totally possible that he goes in the top 3.

Schroeder skates well, is a great playmaker with elite patience, and can finish plays off himself with an impressive snipe. I don’t generally like undersized prospects (don’t ask me about Boychuk and Ennis), but he’s got enough smarts to make an immediate impact with his team.

By the way, the other player who I think could really challenge Schroeder for #3 is Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi. He has wheeeeels to burn. We’ll see if the readiness is there.

The rest of the American team has been very solid. The defense has several guys who could become Liles/Carle type players in Shattenkirk, Blum, and Fairchild. McDonagh is already a horse, but won’t ever be very interesting in fantasy hockey, I think. Same digs with Cole.

The forward lines are filled out with talented and big skaters who know how to play a grinding, cycling game. Tangradi, Palushaj, Wahl, and others all max out as 2nd or 3rd liners in the NHL probably, with the exception maybe of Drayson Bowman.

Thomas McCollum looks real poised in net.

Good on the Germans for finally giving the Canadians a decent game. The players to watch on that team are the goalies and Tony Ritter. It is a bad sign for Czech Hockey when they get trounced 8-1. I’m really looking forward to the Russia-Slovakia game starting in just moments and the Russia/Sweden, Canada/USA gloriousness (gloriousity?) tomorrow!

Sunday morning armchair

happy holidays to you and yours my friends.

Trades this week

Ryan Smyth, Sergei Samsonov and Andrei Markov for Eric Staal, Alex Pietrangelo and Steve Bernier - the best option in the deal is Staal so to land him is the entire reason for the deal.  Piet is in line to be monstrous once he pays his dues in the league and not only that, he’s a big lad too so that’ll help his numbers toward playing a hardnosed game also.  Bernier might just luck into some 5on5 time with Sundin and/or Demitra and that’s bound to be helpful for any NHL’er.  the price is nothing that couldnt be afforded off the team.

Mike Ribeiro for Scott Hartnell - this trade “should’ve” gone through but got declined by the other manager.  Ribeiro will just plain provide more stats for the other team but she declined because she doesnt trust me as a trading partner in this league.  that’s one of the problems with trading with people you know, if you win a series of trades in your local league or if you’re winning in general then people stop trading with you so that they don’t become your next victim.  i was only after some PIMs and a few goals and i was offering more than i shouldve offered in order to get them.  despite that, it was declined.  i guess i have to find another way.

it’s odd to have an armchair where i didn’t get to watch “my” team on Saturday night.  the reason for that is because they lost a stinker to the Isles on Friday night.  i got a replica jersey for Christmas though so that makes things a bit better.

so, i’m sitting down to watch the Pens/Habs and my wife, who doesnt like hockey much at all says, “oh look at the pretty baby blue uniforms”.  all the great poetry in the game and she has to comment on fashion.  i personally HATE the Pens uni’s, i think that they’re old triangle Penguin was cleaner and sharper than this emaciated and neutered version of a jersey.  the last thing i need is for my wife to get a crush on Sid the kid.

they gave the Pens 1st goal to Pascal Dupuis but it was actually Sid who scored it from the edge of the blue.  i don’t imagine Sid would need to affect that change since there’s kinda a difference tween his and Pascal’s scoring potential.  let Dupuis get an extra bonus in his next contract discussion there Sid, keep your mouth shut about the goal.  Sid still got an assist on the play.

AK46 with a hattie.  i said to a guy this past week that i think Sergei might be the better brother eventually, i’m rescinding that now.  Andrei is going to be a superstud and Sergei will just be a stud.

i spent some time earlier this season talking about where in the world Alexei Kovalev is but he’s seen a bit of a rebirth and i think you’ll definitely see a continued increase in AK46’s stats accordingly.

that 3rd period of the Pens/Habs was really very entertaining.  during one early 3rd period PP Sid made about 5 sweet dishes in a row but couldnt find a finisher.  just the 3rd was worth the price of admission, which from my armchair was … nothing.

from a song about a certain Red nosed reindeer name 10 (yes 10) reindeer.

Blake Wheeler sure was a great signing by the B’s eh?  he got his 12th and 13th last night and for a rook he’s doing extremely well.  keepers should be looking at him now, within a couple years he could mean as much to them as Kessel means to them this year.

Michael Ryder has a decent shot at returning to 30 goals again.  at the beginning of any season that’s the minimum target that i want for a roster spot on my fantasy team.  30 goals on a wing at the bottom of the roster can be hard to find in many standard leagues.  that’s why guys don’t blink at rostering guys like Vrbata, or Lupul.

amidst all the Steve Mason love in fantasy circles right now let’s not forget how well Pascal Leclaire did last year.  he hasn’t lost it and i wouldnt be surprised to see Pascal elsewhere and contributing well … soon.  if not then he still has the chops to take the job back from the rook.

if you need PPP go add Ales Kotalik, he’s actually on a lot of waiver wires and it’s pretty funky how much of a PP specialist he is for the slugs.  he has significant value, especially since most one category guys don’t add much in the other cats but if your cat is PPP then you’re also adding to all the other offensive cats.

i dropped Bill Guerin in a pts only league i’m in and he’s gone and gotten 4 pts in the 2 games since the drop.  how rude is that?

interesting that DiPietro just returned from a 30 game layoff but McD got the start on the back end of the first back to back.  it’s not like they need to rest DiP already is it?  i’ve said it before, McD isn’t a bad goaltender and i wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 40% of the starts from here on out.

i have Rene Bourque on my Expert’s League team and i’m really happy about it.  he got his NHL first hattie and he’s on pace for 30 goals on the season.  not bad for a projected 4th line guy who might’ve been able to reach 20 in a good season eh?  he shouldnt be on your wire but if he is then obviously you make that move.

there were a couple really nice laserbeams in that Flames/Sens game.  both beat high blocker but Spezza got there with a sweet wrister and Aucoin had a phenomal angle one timer from below and beside the dot.  it’s nice to see great hockey.

with all the wars that Mike Smith has had to go through of late in order to get a win these last couple days have been heavenly.  2 wins in 2 straight games.  i’m getting giddy.

David Booth went 2 and 1 last night and he now has 14 goals on the season.  i know a guy who just picked him up off waivers and i think it’s a stroke of genius in keeper leagues.  he’s eligible at LW and he’s on pace for 30 goals.  yes please.

Marty St Louis and Ryan Malone went 1 and 3, Vinny Lecavalier went 2 and 1 and Steven Stamkos got his 4th goal of the season; the potential scariness of that team is pretty potent.  just imagine what they’ll be like after they add Viktor Hedman to their mix.  he’d be a nice fit.

man the Rangers lost to the DEVILS at home last night.  that must suck.

Brian Rolston got his 4th goal and his 5th pt on the season in his 16th game of the season.  that’s pitiful.  i rostered him on at least 2 teams and i’m embarrassed to have to admit that.

Patrik Elias had a pretty snipe.  that man is still very dangerous and he’s among the league leaders for stats.  i bet you didnt expect that when you were drafting your team. 

i was wrong about Travis Zajac.  i pegged him for Lombardi type points for his career but i’m willing to upgrade him to possible a Saku Koivu type of production.  that’s a significant bump actually.  he went 1 and 2.

so i mentioned in the Trades this week section that i offered Ribeiro for Hartnell this week and got declined.  Rib went 1 and 2 and Hartnell broke his toe last night.  i guess i’m glad it got declined.

i’ve been watching James Neal for a while now but ever since the Stars destroyed my Leafs this past week i’ve been watching even closer.  this kid has some skills.  he went 1 and 1 last night after a hattie against the Leafs and a goal the week before.  keepers should already be watching.

Brendan Morrison is taking the role that used to belong to Doug Weight and Andy McDonald before him.  interesting that both guys there previously have really taken off given much better opportunity on worse teams.  i want no part of Morrison.

Jonathan Cheechoo has garnered more opportunity because Milan Michalek has been shelved for a while.  Cheech blew up for stats when Big Joe was first traded there and then he went on to a 50 goal season the next year.  if this opportunity pushes him that direction again then you should probably go get him off waivers now.  seriously, a LOT of guys have bailed on Cheech this season.

go check out Ryan Smyth’s statline in December.  he’s really used the opportunity afforded to him because of injuries elsewhere to show the sort of leader that he really is.  make sure you’re getting him in the lineup while he’s hot and he has so many chances to succeed.

Ty Conklin had to go on a pee-break during a tv timeout.  he made it back in time and played really well afterward.  i know i always feel much better after a pee-break too.

what’s the name of the horse in Jingle Bells?  seriously, it’s there.

Tomas Holmstrom went 1 and 2.  i always feel like i have to defend the guy because he’s a bit brittle but the truth is when he’s in the lineup he finds a way to contribute.  i love having guys like that on my team.

Jon Quick has had a really good week with 2 shutties.  Ersberg will stay take the spot back from him when he’s ready to go but i happily rostered Quick in one league where i’m looking for starts.  it’s nice to get lucky with stuff like that in fantasy hockey.

Kyle Quincey and Teddy Purcell with 2 PPA each.  you’ll hear about these guys over the course of this season but i suspect that Q’s value will slip a good margin once all the King’s men are back on the blueline.  i love Purcell’s long term value, i think he might have Spezza upside.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Howard Waddington lives in England.  i don’t imagine he gets to see much puck and yet, i like his team, and i’m not just saying that because he’s taken on the name of my fave NHL team.  overall, his offense is solid, with a couple holes and his goaltending needs a little work.  he plays in a 12 team H2H with the following stat categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, W, GAA, SV, and SV%.  offensively that’s how i set up a typical league but having SV and SV% skews the goalie categories a bit in my thinking.  that’s ok though, we just have to adapt right?  isn’t that what i get paid the big bucks to do?  yep, both big bucks.

let’s take a look at Toronto Maple Leafs.

C David Krejci BOS (B) - i compare him to Marc Savard.  wouldn’t that be a sweet setup?

C Derrick Brassard CBS (B-) - his recent injury certainly hurts for this season but this is a keeper so put him on IR and wait for his rebirth next season

C Pavel Datsyuk DET (A) - pure magician with the puck.

LW Rick Nash CBS (A-) - this is your only true stud goalscorer.  you have a whack of assist guys but you’ll need Nash to anchor other categories.  don’t trade him.

LW Sergei Samsonov CAR (C+) - you need to find a way to shed this guy from your team.  unfortunately, there are so many bad deals out there so shop carefully.

LW Pierre-Marc Bouchard MIN (C) - i honestly believe that Gabby’s return will wake up their entire offense but particularly guys like PMB and Brunette.

RW Jiri Hudler DET (B+) - i’ve got to be honest, i didn’t peg him for this amount of production this year.  it’s nice though eh?  he’s very valuable to your team.

RW Ales Hemsky EDM (A-) - if he puts it all together he could be Pavel Datsyuk.  right now he IS the Oilers.

RW David Clarkson NJ (C-) - PIMs and pts.  he’s actually a very good power forward option.

D Chris Pronger ANA (B+) - fantasy players love him and they hate him too.  if i can’t have Dion Phaneuf on my D then i want Pronger or Zdeno Chara.

D Tom Gilbert EDM (B-) - i offered him around my work league at the beginning of the year and got no takers.  i don’t get that.  he’s a solid 2 way option with great opportunity and little to no pressure to succeed as a D3 in Edmonton.  oh well, he’s doing great on my team while others languish with Keith Ballard.

D John Michael Liles COL (C) - this guy’s supposed to be a PP specialist?  well, i’ve never called him that.  he broke over 40 a couple seasons back but i think that 30 is a good season for him for the rest of his career.

D Matt Carle PHI (C) - i like the upside here.  there are a lot of options in Philly though, which is worrisome, still between 30 and 40 pts is feasible

G Evgeni Nabokov SJ (A) - Gene is an elite goalie option and you’ll not want to change up anything here.

G Mathieu Garon EDM (C) - he’s being outworked by Rollie but his contract status is such that they’ll be keeping him around.

BN Jose Theodore WAS (C-) - he should be a lot better than this and playing for that team the wins should be plentiful.  i still believe he’ll bounce back.

BN Dany Sabourin PIT (D) - no thank you.

BN Milan Michalek SJ (B) - isnt expected to miss much time but he’s disappointed as far as i’m concerned so far this season.

BN Brad Richards DAL (B+) - Morrow’s injury hurts Ribeiro much more than Richards.  i still like Brad for 80 pts.

BN Loui Eriksson DAL (B+) - 18 goals already.  it has surprised me how good he’s been this season.  well worth keeping around.

sitting in your minors you also have: Oscar Moller, Nikolai Kulemin, TJ Oshie, and Teddy Purcell.  there’s some nice upside with all of those guys.

Waiver Wire Options

Rene Bourque - secondary scoring for the Flames.  i have him on my Expert’s League team and am getting some interest in trade talks.  nice mix of PIMs too.

Ryan Smyth - he’s stepping up some into the void created by a snowblower injury.  i wish that were a cocaine joke but it isn’t.

Trent Hunter - he’s been having a really good year actually and since there are so few offensive options available to the Isles then he gets even more opportunity as soon as he’s proven his ability a little bit.

Ales Kotalik - PPP are significant for him and some Sabres aren’t exactly lighting it up of late so maybe he’ll get a bit more opportunity.

Chris Neil - one of my all time fave PIMy options.  few goons have 30 pt potential but Neil is one.

Ian Laperriere - another PIMy option with a 29 pt/130 PIM season under his belt (2006-07).

Matt D’Agostini - a young option who has drawn interest of late and could continue to surprise.  he’s well worth watching.

Jaroslav Spacek - he’s the Sabres best D right now and for the foreseeable future.  i might be convinced to take him before Liles on your team.

Johnny Oduya - he’ll get you some offensive stats but his best contribution is in +/-.

Stephane Robidas - he’s hurt right now but with Zubov shelved for the season he’ll be relied upon by the Stars for some significant things this season and beyond.

Joey MacDonald - well, he’s starting right now and DiP has gimpy legs so he may continue to get some decent amount of starts, he may not win much and the ratios might still be fairly average but he’ll get some starts.

Curtis Sanford - with Bobby Lou still “week to week” he’ll keep getting almost all the starts for a team that is leading a really tough division without it’s best player.

Trading Options

trade Milan Michalek and Jose Theodore to Vancouver Canucks for Andrew Brunette and Petr Budaj - you’re weakest in goal since Theo has disappointed.  a lot of folks downgrade Budaj as an option because the Avs are struggling but actually his ratios are decent.  i don’t know if this offer will actually fly right now with Michalek hurt (short term) and Theo struggling but it’s worth opening the discussion.

trade John Michael Liles and Jose Theodore to Dallas Stars for Braydon Coburn and Vesa Toskala - Stars already has Brent Johnson and it’s always good to have a handcuff for your goaltending.  in this deal you get some stability in your goalies, and you get younger in your D but with a bit more upside.  you’ll have to wait to offer this deal until Jose is back and after a Caps win with Jose tween the pipes.

trade Milan Michalek and John Michael Liles to New York Rangers for Nikolai Zherdev and Shane O’brien - Rangers is overloaded at RW and needs something more on the left side.  you offer that but the main upgrade you offer is at D.  i have doubts this one works but there might be some room for discussion here.

i wanted to find something to send over to the Washington Capitals because it turns out it’s fellow sfw blogger Marcus who runs that team but i couldn’t find anything that fits.  Marcus needs another RW but i couldn’t find a fit where you’d be able to meet that.  if you can find something then more power to you.

Conclusions

this league is hard to evaluate because i know some of the guys in this league.  i pretty much stated the obvious to you and told you that you need to fix up your goaltending for this year.  you knew that already though.  adding Sanford is a very good short term solution and we did that fairly soon into the review.  the trade options will be more “long term” than what has been looked at over this last week.  it won’t be a quick fix to get what you need here though, sorry if you were looking for a magic potion.

good luck on the long haul this season.  i’m hoping good things for you.

Tis the Season… for Trades

Just call me Mr. Tuesday.

Ian was kind enough to invite me to contribute regularly to his blog on Tuesdays and to reward his unending awesomeness, I neglected to watch any hockey all weekend.

Yup, that’s right.  I got hit by Christmas-itis big time, and somehow managed to make it through the entire weekend without watching a single game. It’s too bad, because apparently I missed some pretty good hockey. Ah well, in the grand scheme this little hobby of ours is pretty far down the totem pole. It’s a special time of year, and you’ve got to soak up what you can from it.

Not being able to catch any games (except for parts of the Canada-Sweden tune-up on Friday) leaves me with a bit of a conundrum. Whatever value I can offer or add to this blog comes directly from me being able to watch games. There are, after all, plenty of resources around the interweb that watch boxscores and that will let you know who has a point streak going and who is hasn’t scored in 2 weeks.

I always had a bit of a problem with following that kind of advice. See, knowing that Player X has 9 points in his last 8 games does me precious little good unless he’s going to keep racking up points after I grab him from the waiver wire or trade for him. Same thing goes for cold players. How many times have you dropped a player only to see him put 3 in the bank the very next game?

Nope, I don’t think that’s the best way to go. The real way for me to give useful fantasy hockey advice is to be watching the games so that I can see when a player is starting to get hot before that point streak starts. That’s my angle. So for this week, anyway, I’m not really in a position to dish out that kind of advice.

But don’t worry. Because as luck would have it, I just had two trades go through yesterday, in different keeper leagues, to talk about for today.

Trade #1 – Strong Beers Keeper League

This is the keeper league I started with 11 of my good friends last year. It is a 12 team points league run through Yahoo with custom points:

G = 1.0

A = 0.7

SHG = 1.5

PIM = -0.03

Plus/Minus = +/- 0.1

Game Started (Goalies) = 0.6

Goals Against (Goalies) = -0.5

Shots Against (Goalies) = 0.06

We started the league last season with a points system ripped off from the hockey pool company that my old man has been using since… the 80s? Its old school. The premise is that it rewards players that help their teams in real life… so penalties are bad, minuses are bad, and goals are good (mmm..). The goalie stats are weighted to align the top goalies with the top players, and again, saves=good and GA=bad. We mellowed out the stats for this season to make the penalty for PIMs a little less and to boost the points for assists (previously 0.5). We keep 11 players (out of 24) each summer and set our lineups weekly to play 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, and 1G.

Here’s my team (last year’s keepers in bold):

C – Malkin, Backstrom, Kopitar

LW – Semin, A. Kostitsyn, Brunette, Eriksson, Neal, Filatov

RW – Hossa, Dumont, Hudler, Fleischmann, Voracek, Giroux

D – Green, Kuba, Kronwall, Yandle, Pitkanen, Hunwick, J. Johnson

G – Luongo, Clemmensen

I raced out to a pretty solid lead to start the season (over 40 points at one point) on the backs of Luongo, Hossa, Semin, and Malkin. I was hearing a lot of comments from my fellow poolies about how “I have it locked up” and so on. As a guy at work says, that’s when I should have been asking for the winnings.

Predictably, my lead has been slipping ever since Luongo, Semin, and Green went lame. Its now down to 16 points as of Monday, and the other top teams are gaining on me every week.

The strategy in most limited keepers is the same: if you’re not going to win it this year, you keep your focus on the long-term and acquire as many elite-upside players as possible, working trades to consolidate more points in fewer players. Last year I traded Stastny, Zetterberg, Pominville, and Bouwmeester all for Malkin with that in mind.

However, like in many things, the key is to know when to ditch that long-term strategy and go for broke.

So with that long explanation out of the way, here’s the trade:

I trade: Anze Kopitar, Claude Giroux, and a 2^nd Round pick 2009 (players like Bouchard, Elias, Corvo, Huselius).

I receive:  Patrick Marleau and a 7^th Round pick 2009

In most years, I would never even contemplate this. Sure, Patty Marleau is in his prime and is looking on track to have a career year. But how much of that is due to which line he plays on? Will he be as fortunate to line up beside Jumbo Joe next year? I detest picking players because of the line they happen to be on at the moment. And most people are aware of Kopitar’s superstar potential. Claude Giroux, by the way, is just tearing up the AHL after suffering from the “demotion blues” to start the year.

But the trade works in this situation for a few reasons:

1. My trading partner’s team is in full rebuild mode. He is acquiring as many picks as possible, and after watching Tavares/Hodgeson/Svensson-Paajarvi/Hedman on Friday, I think that’s a pretty solid way to go. He is also stock-piling prospects, adding Giroux to Doughty, Backlund, Kulemin, J. Bernier, and Purcell. Will he keep all those kids through the summer? Probably not. But while he has them, nobody else can (duh!), and if he’s lucky, one or more of them will take a big leap this season (Doughty already has).
2. Marleau has C/LW eligibility, which is huge for me while Semin is acting like a whiny child. Seriously, I love his talent, but the “he could play next game… oops, he’s still hurt” routine is a real pain when lineups have to be in by midnight on Saturdays. So now I can insert Marleau at LW or C, depending on the week and Semin’s injury status.
3. San Jose is one of those teams that plays more games at the end of the season. This will help me down the stretch. The other teams that play the league-high 15 games in the last month of the season for my Sunday-Saturday format: Vancouver and Chicago.
4. Kopitar, while super awesome, is still developing this year, along with his team. The big breakout into elite-dom could happen as soon as next year, but that won’t help my wallet in April.

Disagree with that trade? I’m sure there are a few who will. But if it helps me beat back the teams chasing at my heels, it will be 100% worth it. Plus, I still have some none-core pieces remaining (Voracek, Filatov, 1^st, 3^rd, and 4^th round picks) to offer for some more help at center should I play Marleau at LW.

Trade #2 – The Comish Dynasty

This league, organized by Russ Miller (aka “The Comish”) from dobberhockey.com, is an absolute monster. 30 team Roto (G, A, PIM, PPP, +/-, W, Svs, GAA), and you can keep as much of your 25 player roster (start 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1G) as you want. We started drafting this when the 3^rd round of the playoffs started last May, and didn’t finish until late October. Seriously.

(Fellow shallow contributor Marcus Schalle is in this league too, and though he’s been beaten down by injuries, his squad is still really competitive. He knows his fantasy hockey.)

Before I type out my team, let me say first that I had a pretty terrible draft. That will happen when, halfway through the summer, you forget how the future drafts will work (league finalists get the top picks, rather than the traditional loser-picks-first). So when my 2^nd round pick ditched to Russia in July, I started targeting kids with high upside, oblivious to the fact that a full team of CHL players wouldn’t help me get a Tavares draft pick any more than dancing a lucky jig and throwing salt behind my back would. I also neglected to draft a stud goalie and felt the need to deal Danny Briere and Jonas Hiller for Kari Lehtonen early on. Even though Let’it’in has been hurt plenty this year, I’m still happy with that (although it leaves my C pretty sad). My team:

C – Filppula, Christensen, Gillies, Soderberg, Colborne, Forsberg

LW – Zetterberg, Filatov, May, Sestito, Eller (W/C)

RW – Radulov, Tucker, Mayers, Eberle

D – Weber, Bieksa, Ehrhoff, Goligoski, Commodore, Junland

G – Lehtonen, Rinne, Raycroft, Markstrom

So, it’s pretty obvious that even though my D is strong and my goaltending shows promise for the future, I need active NHL forwards in the worst way.

Oh yeah, and this league has a catch: starting after next year, the bottom 2 teams get booted out and two new managers are brought in. So finishing 3^rd last or better in 2009/2010 is IM-PER-ATIVE! Here’s the deal that I just completed with Kevin, owner of the Detroit Red Wings, after a solid 2 or 3 weeks of off-and-on negotiations:

I trade: Zetterberg, Goligoski, 2^nd Rd Pick 2009

I receive: Hemsky, Brunnstrom, van Riemsdyk

New Team:

C – Filppula, Christensen, Gillies, Soderberg, Colborne, Forsberg

LW – Brunnstrom, Filatov, van Riemsdyk, Eller, Sestito

RW – Hemsky, Radulov, Tucker, Mayers, Eberle

D – Weber, Bieksa, Ehrhoff, Commodore, Junland

G – Lehtonen, Rinne, Raycroft, Markstrom

If you saw my articles here the past two weeks, then you know how high I am on Hemsky and Letang. I consider Goligoski to be a PP specialist (talented, for sure) who might or might not be a steady contributor on the Penguins next year. If Hemmer can score 30 goals and stay on his current 250-shot pace, that will help replace some of Zetterberg’s contributions. I also figure that my D can handle the loss – Commodore is actually a pretty steady roto performer in a league this deep, and I think Junland’s skills will be sorely needed in Missouri.

It occurred to me that, with only 7/9 forward positions occupied by actual NHLers (including such studs as Gillies, Mayers, Tucker, and May), I would probably need to deal my best player in order to get depth. Parting with Zetterberg, in some ways, was crushing. He was my first round pick, and he’s a player I privately consider to be maybe the best in the entire league in how he helps his team by playing both offensively and defensively. Watching Zetterberg think and execute the game is poetic. His back problems are worrying, but its tough to argue with his potential to put up huge points for the 70-ish games he suits up for. When Hossa is gone next year, it will again be the Dats&Hank show. Enjoy him, Kevin.

So where’s the upside? Well, it’s a huge gamble, but one I’m comfortable making after watching Brunnstrom play a few times this year. He is a late-bloomer who was nearly guaranteed to struggle to live up to all the hype, and though it will take him a while to get used to the North American style of play, I see him as a very skilled and (more importantly) smart player. With playmakers like Richards and Ribeiro on the team and plenty of opportunity available, I see him making an impact as soon as February or March.

The other wild card is the 2^nd overall pick in 2007, James van Riemsdyk. Frankly, I have no idea how long it will be before JVR makes it onto that deep Philly roster. For all I know, he could insist on playing out his full 4 years in college at New Hampshire. But he dominated the World Juniors last year and is, by all accounts, doing the same in the NCAA this season. If he can put up some huge points this year at the WJC in Ottawa (playing on a very dangerous and experienced American squad), then maybe I’ll have a chip I can move to gain more immediate help.

As you can see, my team is in a sorry state. Desperate, even. But there is some hope for next year. Soderberg is dominating the Swedish Division 2 with his hometown team and may finally come across the pond to Boston next year. Sestito might be ready to assume the pugilist duties in Columbus to give me some PIMs and a few goals, and Eller is billed as a Calder candidate when he makes the jump. Markstrom is an elite goalie prospect whose reputation will only grow, and Filatov, Eberle, and JVR all have a chance to hype themselves in the coming weeks.

This one could blow up in my face, but if that happens, I’ll only suffer for one more year.

Merry Christmas everybody!

Brodeurless Devils

“trades this week”

I don’t have any trades to report from any of my fantasy teams but I am helping out a reader with one of his trades. The GM is looking to trade his Cheechoo for Ott as he is looking for PIM’s. I’m waiting to hear back from the GM to see what PIM guys available on the WW but I would recommend keeping Cheechoo for a few reasons.

1. Cheechoo has just returned from an injury and with Michalek injured he will finally see time in the top 6 alongside Pavelski and Clowe.

2. Cheechoo is known for his second half production.

3. His value is rock bottom and will not get any lower. If he produces in Michalek’s absence, the GM may get more than Ott and if he continues to struggle he can still trade for Ott.

4. If the GM is only looking for PIM than there are better options than Ott (6 pts, 55 PIM) such as Laperriere (12pts 82 PIM)

November 1, 2008 looked to be the end of the season for the New Jersey Devils when Brodeur injured his elbow and was to miss 3-4 months. A team not known for scoring but as one of the best defensive teams in the league has gained this reputation due to the play of Brodeur over the years. Most experts predicted the Devils to fall out of the playoff race with the tandem of Weekes and Clemmensen, both career back-ups not expected to make the key saves to squeak out a win in a traditional low scoring Devils game.

In the first 6 games without Broduer the teams went 1-5 with a 1.5GF/G and 3.0GA/G. Like many expected the Devils goalies were able to keep the team in games (only allowed more than 3 goals in 1 of the 6 games) but were unable to pull off any game winning performances on their own. The offense also struggled as they only managed to score more than 2 goals in one of the six games.

On November 15th the offense finally came around and with solid goaltending from Scott Clemmensen the Devils have gone 12-2-1 in their last 15 games. Their 3.93 GF/G has been unheard of for a Devils team and a 2.60 GA/G is respectable with a backup in net. So what is the reason for this sudden surge?

Lets start with the goalie, Scott Clemmensen. In his 7th season in the league Scott has never played more than 13 games until this season and has spent most of his time in the AHL. With Weekes ahead of him in the depth chart, Clemmensen was only expected to play in back to back games but poor play gave him the opportunity he has been waiting for his whole career. For those fortunate to pick him up his 11-1-1 record makes him the hottest goalie in the league. The latest update on Brodeur is a return in mid-February but unlike Luongo he will not be forced to rush back with the Devils playing so well. That gives Clemmensen 25-30 games with 4 B2B games. Owners are looking at 18-22 more starts but should look to get some value for him in the next month while his value is this high. Clemmensen will not be a starter in the NHL and this is your chance to cash in on a lucky WW pickup.

With the off-season acquisition of Brian Rolston, many expected him to be the catalyst for Elias but injuries and poor play have him playing on the 3rd line. All the offense has come from the top 6.

Zach Parise has had seasons of 32, 62 and 65 pts and looks to be on target to hit his potential of 90+ right on schedule (4th year breakout). He is red hot with 15 pts in his last 9 games and is on pace for 106 points. I don’t see him keeping this current pace but he should finish in the 85-90 range.  Parise will be the face of the franchise offensively for years to come.

Two seasons ago Parise and Zajac had great chemistry but last season Zajac hit the sophomore slump. This season the chemistry has returned with Langenbrunner on the RW. Zajac is on pace for 61 pts and Langenbrunner 57 pts. Langenbrunner’s career high is 60 pts and at the age of 33 he has a few years of 40-50 pts left in him. In one-year pools he make a good 3rd or 4th RW, especially with RW becoming harder and harder to fill. Zajac on the other hand is a year away from hitting his magical 4th season but when he does I don’t expect him bust out. I foresee another 2 or 3 seasons of 50-60 pts and then he should hit his potential of 70 pts.

Although Parise is the big name in fantasy cirlces, the second line of Elias-Zubrus-Gionta has been just as good. Back in 05-06 with the help of Gomez at center, Elias put up 45 pts in 38 games after overcoming a bout with hepatitis-A and Gionta scored 48 goals. Both players have struggled since that remarkable season and with the departure of Gomez to the big apple it looked like Elias’ value in fantasy hockey was coming to an end.

With Zubrus centering this line, both players are starting to play like they did 3 seasons ago. Elias was named 3rd star of the week with 17 pts during his 10 game point streak. He is on pace for 99 pts and is a great sell high candidate for those in keepers. For those in one-year pools enjoy the ride as Elias, like Ribeiro last season, is one of those late picks that wins you pools. Elias has only topped the 80+ mark twice in his 13 seasons in the league. With 51 games remaining look for Elias to cool down and finish with 40 points in that span.

Gionta will never be a 48 goal scorer again, but he is a legit 20-25 goal guy who will hover in the 45-55 pt range for the next few seasons. Zubrus makes a good weekly pickup when he is putting up points as there are better options available at center.

Sunday morning armchair

every year at Christmas i like to make sure i catch two versions of A Christmas Carol; there’s a 1970 musical called Scrooge that just works for me on some level and there’s the classic Alistair Sim version from 1930 or something.  the transformation at the end pulls me in directions that inspires me … forever.  i work with the poor,  i see them everyday, and not your “basic cable poor” either; i’m talking about the “what am i going to feed my kids tonight poor”.  remember those who are less fortunate than you.

Jeff Carter went 2 and 2 including a shortie.  as a Leaf fan i’m still annoyed they could’ve had him and a 1st for Kaberle if he would’ve waived his no trade.  sigh.  there aren’t many goalscorer types who also kill penalties and contribute across the board like this guy.

Scott Hartnell went 3 and 1.  i tried to tell you a couple weeks ago to go and trade for him.  the man has been fab for my team over the last couple weeks, 15 pts and 31 PIMs over his last 15 games.  if you didnt trade for him before this it’s way too expensive now.

don’t panic Caps fans, Jose Theodore is still your best goaltender this year.  i know that Brent Johnson has been carrying the load but he’ll go back to the end of the bench soon and hair-boy will anchor your team once he’s fully healthy again.  the rumour is that the Caps want to get another goalie but they also want to move Jose at the same time and nobody’s going to take on his contract.  that’s why he’ll be your goalie for the foreseeable future.  by the way, Varlamov will be your starter in about 2 seasons.

my buddy gave me a signed AO pic all framed up etc.  very cool.  Alexander the gr8 took 12 shots yesterday.  12.  nobody takes 12 shots.

i ragged on Joffrey Lupul not so long ago and then he goes 1 and 3 yesterday.  he has 10 pts in December.  boy the Flyers are playing well on Saturdays of late.

Antero Niittymaki is on a lot of waiver wires, has an Olympic medal and i like him.  that team is significant, they score goals and when he gets the start he has a very good shot at the win.  Biron had the flu but still Antero is decent.

Rod Brind’amour got 2 assists, one on the PP and was still -2.  if you can get anything for him then do so. 

if you loan a guy 20 bucks and then never see him again, it was probably worth it.

Scott Walker took 9 SOG’s and got an assist.  i have him on my Expert’s League team and he’s got a nice mix of hardnosed play and point contribution.

i’m working on a David Krejci trade right now.  i’d love to see it happen.  if it does then i’m sure i’ll tell you.

is there any skater playing better than Phil Kessel right now?  ok, maybe Jeff Carter or something.  the B’s aren’t doing anywhere nearly this well without Kessel though.  i got him in one league and have no plans to move him unless i get bowled over by a great offer.

Manny Fernandez could do like Antero could do too.

Daniel Alfredsson left the ice in obvious pain last night.  no more reported but i was emailing back and forth with Joey about trying to trade for him.  obviously you don’t want to move for Alffy right now.  it looked like a shoulder injury.

Tomas Kaberle with 3 helpers tonight, 2 on the PP.  i’ve been working on shopping him in one league and i’m pretty excited by the offers being thrown about.  this sort of game is good for the trading business.

Alexei Ponikorovsky is a decent hockey player.  if he gets someone to play with he can contribute.  he and Antropov are both big lads and i just think they should park themselves out front more often, just chill and wait for garbage time.  that’s how Antropov got his goal tonight.

boy did the Pens ever lose their cool in the 3rd.  there was too much running going on and i think Malkin has a virus ’cause he sure coughed it up a bunch of times.

i’ve seen some hi-lites of Alexei Kovalev of late and he looks to have his laser beam back on target.  he got the OT winner and had a helper for good measure too.  if he’s on target then watch that PP take off!

SKostitsyn with 2 goals and 7 SOG’s.  keepers make your move before he becomes the perennial 30 goal guy he’s pretty much guaranteed to be.

Martin St Louis seemed to be playing well last night.  i just wonder if too many guys take too many nights off.  Mike Smith has stellar ratios but he can’t get anywhere near a win.  i could see them with another 1st overall pick and i wouldnt be surprised if it’s Hedman in Tampa next year.

they were talking on the CBC Hotstove that Atlanta should trade for Gaborik in an attempt to keep Kovalchuk around.  wouldn’t that be huge?  2 quality snipers like that?  i’m betting Little and White would be just JUMPING if something like that happened.  then again, somebody would have to go to Minny in order to get the deal done and the stove said they wanted a player, a prospect and a pick.  i’m thinking Little would the player choice, he’d be mine anyway.

Jason Spezza got a PPG but was -3.  if Alffy is out for a long time then i don’t want much of a part of any Sen.  Alffy is very much defensively responsible and Spezz isn’t.

Loui Ericksson has 18 goals now.  wow.  i think i owe fellow sfw blogger Joel an apology.  he pegged Loui for some big things and i pretty much crapped on that idea off the top.  Joel, i was wrr… wrrrro… wwrrrrr … aw screw it, Loui is Niklas Hagman in my eyes still.  well i hope so anyway because Hags is a Leaf now and i’d love him to get up toward 40 like Louie Louie’s gonna do.

Martin Gerber has started a LOT this month.  i’m not saying he’ll get you wins or good ratios but he’ll start and he’ll get saves.

i was watching Curtis Sanford and he looks like he’s in it DEEP.  he’s going down early, getting up slowly and he’s trying to look as big as possible so that the puck just hits him.  i know that when you’re desperate for goaltending you take what you can get in fantasy hockey but if i were relying on Sanford for my team then i’ve got to think that it’d be a sweaty, nervous reliance.

Pekka Rinne continues to do freakishly well.  another shuttie last night.

the Preds offense looks to be very dependant on Jason Arnott.  one guy i’ve been trying to target more is Martin Erat because i think he’ll really come to the fore.

Pierre-Marc Bouchard will also take off for some stats in the near future now that Gabby is back.  the offense will spread around more and if PMB doesnt get more time with Gabby then he’ll get it with other guys who are less talented but still have some skills.

Marc Crawford is an annoying talking head.  learn to pronounce Byfuglien Craw!

cool Bryz with a shuttie at home against the Jackets.  that’s a pretty good offense to shut the door on and the Bryzgalov needed a game like that.

Jovo-cop is on patrol.  25 mins of ice time and he was +1 in the shuttie.  he’s been on fire for a couple weeks now and i hope you got there on time.  i actually saw him on waiver wires this season, can you believe that?

they mentioned on the hotstove that the Hawks might just shop Huet and hang on to Khabby now.  how stupid is that?  you sign a guy to be your goalie and then trade him because you want to hang on to the FA to be?  i still say that Khabby goes, no matter what Lebrun or Strachan or my buddy Dave the huge Hawk fan says.

anyone who gets to line up in San Jose must be a happy camper.  Ryan Clowe even has 14 goals there now.  ok a probable exception to that statement is Jonathan Cheechoo who’s 9 pts must be embarrassing for him.

Nikolai Zherdev got an unassisted shortie.  that’s how shorties should happen, you take the puck, you skate, you shoot, you score.  none of these fancy passes or short shredding dekes.  most shorties are simple SOG’s and then prepare to defend again.  i haven’t seen the goal but that’s what i imagine happened because it was an unassisted shortie.  incidently, Z took 8 SOG’s last night, niiiiiiiice.

i got Joe Thornton on my Expert’s league team, yeah he’s pretty good.  i didn’t peg Patty Marleau for a bounceback like this though.  i figured he’d have a better year but he’s been as good as Joe.  if you got Patty late then congrats my friend, you may’ve won your league with that move.

whatever happened to Brandon Dubinsky and Aaron Voros?  guys couldnt add them to their teams fast enough the first month.  they’re both bottom end fantasy players and Doobie has more upside.

a co-worker is friends with Nigel Dawes and she says that he has a moral quality that will take him far.  i’ll easily accept that as potential.

Canucks midseason update

With Sundin being signed yesterday I thought I’d throw in my $.02.

Hope its ok to post on your day Joel.

It took 170 days but Gillis worked his magic and has delivered a legit PPG player to the city of Vancouver. To residents of BC this has been one of the best weeks in history with the retirement of Linden and the signing of Sundin. In a market that has one of the best fan bases in the league, the Canucks are always in the hunt for big free agent signings but are never able to land them. Whether its been the travel involved from the westcoast or $$$, year in and year out there is disappointment as teams like the rangers and Leaf sign players to bigger contracts than they deserve. However, yesterday the stars have aligned and NUCK fans can rejoice.

At the start of year most experts projected the Nucks to miss the playoffs and criticized the signing of Gillis as sports agent turned GM. 32 games into the season the Canucks are 18-11-3 and sit tied for 8th in the league. This has all happened with Luongo missing the last month and a D core that continues to suffer from injuries.

Gillis’ belief in building a better team from the dressing room out has translated onto the ice. With Naslund and Morrison gone players like Kesler and Mitchell have filled the leadership gap.

The biggest knock on the team was a lack of secondary scoring. 3.03 GF/G is good enough for 9th in the league due to the play of the 3rd line (kesler/burrows) and it will most likely improve with Sundin added to the lineup.

Sundin talked to the Team 1040 this afternoon and here are some of the highlights:

From day 1 Vancouver has always been his #1 choice and was impressed with the way the Canucks organization conducted themselves. They allowed him to take his time and make the right decision for himself and the team.

When asked why he picked Vancouver he mentioned playing for a hockey town that cares about their team and the dressing room not being affected as the main reasons.

Unlike the signing of Messier in the past, Sundin is a class act who was willing to take a pay cut. The pay cut allows the Nucks to make moves at the trade deadline if the option arises. Sundin has experienced many changes in the locker room and knows the effect a player of his stature has and called Ohlund to make sure he would be accepted. Coach V has already stated Sundin does not need a letter to lead and is committed to help this team win.

For those interested in his cap hit here is the breakdown from a post from Angus.

“For his pro-rated salary, Sundin will receive $1.625. Annualized, that is about a $2.6 million salary.

For his signing bonus, Sundin will receive $4 million. The Canucks have confirmed that they have $2.5 million in salary cap space.

The total annualized value of the deal is $8.6 million. That’s $1.4 million less than what Sundin was offered.”

Now for some fantasy analysis:

Sundin is expected to arrive in Vancouver on December 27 or 28th. While he is in shape he is not quite in game shape and will need a week or two to get up to speed. With a 5 game home stand starting on Jan 9th I would expect to see Mats make his debut on the 9th or 10th. That would give him 39 games and as a PPG player 35-45 pts depending on how fast he adapts to the speed of the NHL again.

Sundin’s value has a greater affect on his teammates.

The Sedin’s will become second liners and will continue to see their winger change between Hansen, Raymond, Wellwood and Bernier. They will not always face the top shutdown unit every game and will have a player that can finish on the PP. Expect a 5-10 pt increase (40-45 pt second half)

Sundin will play with Demitra and most likely Raymond on the other wing but things are not set in stone until Sundin begins practicing with the team at the end of the month. Demitra will finally have a skilled forward to play with and if he remains healthy can become a PPG player once again.

Whoever the winger is on the top line will make a nice sleeper pickup.

As for the 3rd line Kesler and Burrows may be reunited with Hansen who has seen time on the top line with the Sedins the past 2 games. They will not be relied on as much offensively and their numbers will drop a bit after a hot start to the season.

The Canucks will now have 2 scoring lines and an excellent checking line that can score when called upon. Add a healthy D core and Luongo and you have a team that can make the playoffs. I’m will not go as far as some and peg them as a legit Stanley Cup contender but the potential is there for the Nucks to surprise and get past the first run and hopefully further.

Thanks to Gillis and a hard working team the city of Vancouver has something to cheer for.

Go Canucks Go