Shallow Frozen Water

Kerry Fraser’s Hair

this is the first installment in my weekly team reviews here at hockeyanalysis.com.  if you’d like your team to be considered for something like this then fire off an email to me at ian@hockeyanalysis.com. 

some good fun can be had dissecting fantasy team names and let me just say, i love that team name.  this isn’t the first time that i’ve had the privilege of trying to help out this team however, Justin Kelly, this fantasy team’s owner,  has been emailing back and forth with me about all things hockey for quite a while.  i still yell at Kerry Fraser whenever i see him by the way, whether he can hear me or not, because he missed Wayne Gretzky’s high stick on Doug Gilmour drawing blood in the ‘93 playoffs.  that was the Leafs year and THEY WAS ROBBED!

anyway, Justin plays in a 12 team H2H keeper league with the following settings: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, W, GAA, SV%.  those are good settings in my books.  having PPP and SOG are good cat’s that can be tracked easily, SV% is a better option than SVs in H2H, and the exclusion of Shutties as a category is wise due to scarcity.  The league starts 6F’s, 4D’s, 1util, and 2G’s with daily changes permitted and his keepers from last season are Dany Heatley, Dion Phaneuf and Marc Andre Fleury, that Fleury keep must’ve burnt your butt with how badly he’s started out this season.  Justin’s not in very good shape at present but there is hope.

Let’s take a look at Kerry Fraser’s Hair (although not literally, there’s no way you could get past the helmet like facade in order to see just how good the plugs are).

F Dany Heatley OTW (A+) - your first keep for the next decade.  he’ll be a 50 goal guy and should only leave your team if you’re offered Sid the kid for him.

F Brad Richards TB (B+) - he’s actually worth more as a H2H player than in roto because he’s so very consistent in his scoring pace.  +/- always seems to be his bugaboo though and i don’t get that since he plays amidst such an awesome offensive attack.

F Jeff Carter PHI (C-) - if only this could be Mike Richards but alas … he isn’t.  there’s undoubtedly a better option for you to play here.

F Alexei Kovalev MON (B) - a traditional enigma who this year is contributing much more and carrying lesser lights along for the ride.

F Kyle Wellwood TOR (C+) - jury’s out on him but i still like him.  i like him on the power play and as long as he gets some ice time with Mats he’ll contribute.

F Michael Nylander WAS (B-) - pt/game guy who hasn’t really had a chance to play with Alexander Semin at all so far this season.  he’s well worth rostering and when the whole Caps team is back and firing you’ll see the stat line steadily rise.

D Dion Phaneuf CAL (A-) - there aren’t many young players that i’d want to secure in a keeper more than PIMy D (as i call him).  he’ll score, he passes, and he hits so hard that your grandkids will be born dizzy.

D Bryan McCabe TOR (B-) - he sure is taking it on the chops but let me say as a fantasy player he can definitely help your team.  the guy contributes a bunch offensively and can be quite PIMy too.  i’ve actually been advising a few guys to try and trade for him right now since i don’t think his value will be any lower.

D Brent Burns MIN (B) - kid’s young, he shoots, he gets significant PP time with some of the best snipers in the game.  yes please.

D Erik Johnson STL (C) - i love this kid in keeper leagues but in a 12 team league that starts 4D, EJ isn’t among the top 48 D in the game.

util Lee Stempniak STL (C) - he was a sleeper on many guy’s draft lists this year, not on mine though.  i think you can do better here.

G Martin Gerber OTW (A) - i know i didn’t peg him to be Darth Gerber like he is this year.  he’ll keep the job and it now seems that Emery is the one who’ll get dealt.

G Marc Andre Fleury PIT (B-) - i remember feeling confident last year telling you that Fleury was a very nice option as a keeper but he hasn’t played like one so far this year.  let’s get serious though, the Pens are going to score in bunches and MAF is their best goaltender.  don’t give up here.

BN Ray Emery OTW (C-) - when they move him he’ll backstop another team and that’ll just be more stats starting for your team.  in the meantime you have a very nice handcuff situation with both your starters.

BN Dany Sabourin PIT (C-) - there was a while a couple weeks ago where fantasy owners went nuts for Dany Saby while MAF struggled.  in all truth though Sabourin got drunk on saves for a bit and the rest of us eventually sobered up.

BN Ryan Malone PIT (C) - sometimes he plays alongside the big boys and sometimes he disappears for a week at a time.  i think he’s the right choice for your bench since he does have some nice upside but also some question marks.  when Havlat returns he’s probably your drop.

IR Martin Havlat CHI (C) - when healthy he’s a special player who’ll get you a point a game.  unfortunately he only seems to be healthy for half a season every season.  as soon as he steps on the ice his grade goes up to a B+ easily.

i like most of your offense, your D is underrated and decent, and the goalie handcuff is a nice strategy to run out there in many fantasy leagues but especially in H2H where you can guarantee yourself that you’ll get a start out of somebody on a given night.  Martin Havlat should return, perhaps later this week, and you should get him in the lineup asap.  he’ll help you a lot more than you think he will.  the Hawks attack looks to be on the verge and adding a sniper to a very good attack, especially on the PP, will give you some nice stats.  Havlat was healthy for half a season last year once he returned from what ailed him.  i’d expect the same this year and you need that expectation to happen.

Waiver Wire Options

Shea Weber  - he’s an elite D that had no business being on your wire, he just came back and the day that i started looking at your team he got picked up by the guy in 1st place.  that bites.  i mention it for the other guys who may read this and not realize how great an option he is for your fantasy team.

Mike Fisher - prior to Spezza returning Fish was skating with the big guns.  i expect he’ll be sent to hang out with Chris Neil and become the shutdown C that he is. 

J.P. Dumont - first line winger.  the offense is running through Dumont/Arnott/Erat/Radulov.

Martin Erat - see JP Dumont and adjust your roster accordingly.

Mike Ribeiro - getting a whack of PP time.  he used to be a 2nd option that is quickly becoming the best C option on his team.

Chris Neil - few better PIM/pt options in the game.

Marco Sturm - 9 goals but most points at even strength.  when he contributes more on PP then his value will go through the roof.  then again, given his history, it’s not exactly likely that he’s going to turn into Cam Neely or anything.

Shawn Horcoff - the Oil isn’t exactly playing great hockey but it’s looking like Horcoff is.  he’s contributing on the kill, the extra man, and at even strength.  the Oil just doesn’t have the horses to get it done this season.

Tomas Plekanec - secondary attack on the best PP around and he is being carried around by Alexei Kovalev’s talent right now.  still, a good option for PPP but can be a +/- anchor.

Daniel Carcillo - leading the world in PIMs and if he finds away to chip in some pts he may rival Sean Avery and Chris Neil for fantasy value in PIM/pt combo.

Devin Setoguchi - this kid’s getting plenty of ice time with Joe Thornton.  Joe gets plenty of assists and he needs guys who are willing to put some extra goals in their column.

Ales Hemsky - this guy hit the wire as i was writing this team review.  he’s a bit of an enigma but there’s no doubting he has talent.  i’d worry about +/- for him but quite honestly +/- is less of a concern in H2H anyway and you already have Brad Richards on your team who’s going to hurt your +/- anyway.

Brian Campbell - the Sabres best D man.  when the swords all wake up you’ll want to have this guy on your roster.

Tobias Enstrom - the Thrash is already awake offensively and it’s not looking like many D men in ATL want to step up to help.  Enstrom is who i peg to take the lion’s share of PPTOI for them.

Sami Salo - he’s on IR but definitely worth keeping your eye on.

Kevin Bieksa - also on IR and won’t be back til forever or 2008 whichever comes first but still, worth keeping your eye on.

Dwayne Roloson - he hasn’t been setting the world on fire of late but if he gets moved to a better situation in need of an upper echelon goalie (i’m looking at you Tampa Bay) then he becomes an immediate must add.

- drop Lee Stempniak to add JP Dumont - Dumont has a better offensive history than Stemp and is in a better situation.

- drop Erik Johnson to add Brian Campbell - it pains me to suggest it but this is a better move.  an even better move would’ve been to get Shea Weber but it’s too late for that now that he’s been snapped up.

- drop Dany Sabourin to add Martin Erat - MAF is going to solidify in the job (trust me) and Erat is way too good an option to be sitting on a waiver wire.  by doing this you still have your Ottawa handcuff active and that’s the better handcuff anyway.

 Trading Options

your team leads your league in PIMs, and that’s it.  you need help everywhere else.  i don’t even see why you lead in PIMs since your guys don’t look all that tough to begin with.  you’ve been hurt a lot by Heatley’s recent slump, Havlat’s injury, and Fleury’s brutal start.  the good news is that Fleury is back on the beam, Havlat is ready to come back and Heatley just got Spezza back to feed him for the 50 goals he’s going to get this year.  you should seriously consider trading Martin “Darth” Gerber and a slumping forward for a slumping goalie (maybe Marty Turco) and a scoring forward.

you need to trade for more offense.  there’s a bit on the wire and i’ve already suggested you go get it.  i have concerns for Jeff Carter and Ryan Malone in your lineup though and i think that they’ll just end up as castoffs eventually.  let’s see what can be done at the trading tables.

trade Kyle Wellwood to Back to Back for Maxim Afinogenov - you have to go after guys who had more expectations on them and haven’t met the grade so far this year.  that’s Max so far this season.  if Back is smart he’ll decline that offer and you can see if he might like Jeff Carter or Ryan Malone for him instead.  some guys are really high on the Malone hype due to the fact that he gets to line up with Sid and/or Gene often but if he takes any of those 3 offers you’re golden.

trade Martin Gerber, Jeff Carter and Alexei Kovalev to Hub of Hockey for Marty Turco, Simon Gagne and Alexander Semin - does this idea scare you?  it should (excuse me while i go change into my brown corduroys)(that’s an old joke that i love, anyone else hear the old Admiral Nelson joke?).  it’s a difficult deal to put together but it generally assumes that Turco isn’t going to continue playing like a stiff and that the forwards you get back manage to stay healthy for the remainder of the year.  yes it’s a risk but you’re already in 11th place so it’s not like things can get much worse for your team.  other potential trade targets off Hub are Alexander Frolov and Eric Staal although this is a keeper league so it’s probably best not to get too greedy.

trade Michael Nylander to Blades of Steel for Shane Doan - the Yotes are a young team and they rely on Doan more than most people realize.  Doan is shooting the puck a lot and getting plenty of ice time as the dogs try to find their way.  in terms of talent it’s better to have a team’s 1st option on offense than it is to have another team’s 3rd or 4th option.  don’t do this deal straight up though, ask for more and see what is possible since it does seem that Nylander has more value than Doan this season.

trade Michael Nylander and Ryan Malone to Who Throws a Shoe? for Andy McDonald and Petr Sykora - i think that some people REALLY believe that Ryan Malone is going to be a great power forward.  i personally think the best he’ll be is a serviceable NHL’er.  in this deal you’re going after a couple supporting cast members who’ve disappointed their fantasy owners a bit this season and you’re offering up the best player in the deal in Nylander.  you just have to find a way to create some more offense in your lineup.

Conclusions

ok, well the hill to climb is pretty steep.  you need help.  sorry, was i supposed to sugar-coat that?  that doesn’t mean that all is lost however, you just need to add some more offense to your lineup and you should target guys who’ve underwhelmed so far this season. 

starting things off, the waiver moves are quite good actually.  i’m a bit surprised at the offense available to you on your wire.  adding those Predator forwards to your lineup is going to help you, they’re both getting quality ice time for the Preds, significant power play opportunity and they’re making the most of it.  Brian Campbell is a sleek skating D-man that is worth rostering ahead of Eric Johnson this season, so that move’s good too.

the suggested trades are longer shots.  you have a strong situation in goal and if you can turn that into a little more offense without hurting yourself in the twine then you’ll be on your way.  if you can target guys who’ve disappointed this season and get them at a good price like i suggest you try to do, then absolutely do so.  you need to take some chances that guys like Afinogenov and McDonald return to the form that were expected of them, that’s why you should target them.

it won’t be easy but maybe Kerry Fraser’s Hair can stand up to the scrutiny, it certainly looks like it can stand up to a lot of things.  yes, i may not be talking about your hockey team any longer.