Shallow Frozen Water

Spezz dispenser

i’ve had an ongoing email conversation with Joey Wilson going on 2 years now.  it’s like a chess game where you’re both down to a King and a pawn, it just keeps going and going and going.  it’s probably a good thing that we’re both serious puckheads or it could get pretty annoying.

Joey has followed me (almost stalked me actually) since TMR.com became a part of the Worldwide Leader and i appreciate it very much.  recently he asked me if i could take a look at his team in the same league that i reviewed last year.  i remember that he was pretty much middle of the road last year when i visited the league but i hope for an improvement on things this season.  THIS year he’s taking nothing to chance and already has himself nearly a 50 pt lead in his mega-category, points league with some buddies. 

those who know me or have read my blog previously know that i HATE points leagues and i despise category setups that redundantly count the same stat over and over again in several different categories.  for example: i hate when you count Goals and Assists and then turn around and count Points too.  what’s up with that?  you’ve already counted that goal so why count it again in another column?  then leagues go and add PPG and PPP as categories too and i suspect that you think my head is about to explode, well that’s only because it is.  or how about SHG and then SHP too?

now those are only examples and thankfully this league doesn’t do that.  they don’t count Points as a category that is.  unfortunately they count everything else.  that ticking you hear is the timebomb in my head about to go off.  Joey is in the lead of a 9 team points league with the following categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPP, SHG, SHP, GWG, W, L, GA, SV, and SHO.  that’s a whack of categories.  it’s confusing enough but let’s make it a bit more confusing shall we?  the award the arbitrary point totals of: G (2), A (1), +/- (.5), PIM (.2), PPG (1), PPP (1), SHG (2), SHP (2), GWG (4), W (5), L (-2), GA (-.5), SV (.1), SHO (8) for those categories.  how about you try and rebalance all of YOUR projections based on somebody else’s numbers?  not a fun prospect so that means i’ll have to use their system and my own instincts to try and project a direction for Joey’s team.  ya, it’s a rough life (not all that rough actually, this stuff is interesting to me).

ok, so this league rewards goals at every turn.  a sniper who can approach as many assists as he has goals would be more valuable than a guy with twice as many assists as goals.  a good rule to keep in mind is that Henrik Sedin and others like him have less value in a league like this and the average sniper jumps ahead in the fantasy point standings.  as an example Marc Savard leads the NHL in assists as i write this but he’s 51st in fantasy scoring in this league right now.  Henrik Sedin is 52nd and Jason Spezza is 58th.  Brad Boyes’ 17 goals put him 26th in fantasy scoring in this league, Corey Perry’s 15 goals put him 43rd in fantasy scoring and Mike Cammalleri’s 14 goals put him 45th.

you with me here?  let’s take a look.

C - Daniel Briere, Jason Spezza, Jonathan Toews

LW - Brendan Morrow, Tomas Vanek

RW - Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat

W - Cory Stillman, Patrik Elias

D - Dion Phaneuf, Mark Streit, Tobias Enstrom, Mathieu Schneider

util - Jason Arnott

G - Niklas Backstrom, Henrik Lundqvist

Bench - Tomas Vokoun, Michael Nylander, Nikolai Zherdev

IR - Steve Sullivan, Kevin Bieksa

your team is strong and it looks like it belongs in first place where it is.  the question becomes what options do you have that can help ensure you stay in first place?  your goaltending is very strong and i’d be more than a bit hesitant to change that up at all.  your D is decent and i’d only keep an eye open for any D that you think is going to score more goals.  you should get plenty of assists and PPP out of your D as it is.  it’s your forwards that you’re going to tweak for this review. 

your best fantasy point scoring forward is Cory Stillman so far this season.  that won’t continue, simply because i don’t think Stillman’ll keep up this pace and you have some significant goalscorers on your team who either have started poorly or been injured for a good chunk of the season.  i’m going to suggest you target at least one goal scoring W or C and i’ll suggest that Stillman may be your best bait to get it done.

Waiver Wire Options

Philippe Boucher - on IR but he’s a goal scoring D and that’s well worth targeting.

Alexander Radulov - he’s going to be a scoring fiend and my hope is that he at least rises to the level of a scoring menace this season.

Chris Clark - also on IR but you have a bazillion IR slots for your roster, start using them.

Dustin Penner - Penner, Hemsky and Horcoff seem to be working very well together.  Penner’s the sort who just needs to go hang out in front and wait for the garbage goal.  he’d be good at that and it’s hard to unplant a tree from in front of your own goal.

Tomas Plekanec - fine PPP option and had a decent connection with Kovalev earlier in the season.

Scott Walker - the Canes are scoring a lot and Walker chips in his share, plus there’s an edge to him and he keeps the +/- near respectable levels.

Shawn Horcoff - few in the East get to see this guy much but he has been the Oilers’ best player for a solid month now.  he’s better than a bunch of the C’s you’re presently rostering.

Carey Price - this isn’t a keeper league but i still say that Price is the starter on merit by season’s end.  the Habs should trade Huet.  if the rumour is the Stars can get Marty St. Louis for Turco then perhaps the Habs could get Vinny Prospal or even Brad Richards for Huet and then the Lightning don’t have to move Marty at all.

Ilya Bryzgalov - well he’ll see plenty of rubber and might get a decent amount of wins too, i think he’s that good.

drop Nikolai Zherdev to add Philippe Boucher, put him on IR, add Chris Clark, put him on IR and add Alexander Radulov - for the sake of your team’s balance you needed to add a RW and eventually Clark may be a better option, when healthy.  Radulov might just take off though, he was a Junior scoring fiend and the Preds want him to go on a scoring tear, particularly if he can do it while being defensively responsible.  i first suggested you IR Boucher and Clark because they score goals and you need to reserve that in a league like yours since it’s like striking goal’d (get it?  gold? goal’d? aw nertz this is wasted on you guys).

drop Michael Nylander to add Shawn Horcoff - i thought long about this suggestion but Nylander has an undisclosed injury, your league is relatively shallow and Horcoff has developed some huge chemistry with Hemsky over the last month.  he’s contributing across the board and he doesn’t carry the +/- millstone that Nylander has been for you so far this season.

Trading Options

within the last month you made a deal that you and i discussed for about a week solid.  i’m going to include it first because it needs to be critiqued.

trade Alexei Kovalev and Paul Stastny to MAD BUNAZZZ for Jason Spezza and Jason Arnott - Stastny is a special player so it always hurts to move someone like him but you got Jason Spezza out of the deal.  traditionally Spezz is a passer, which has less value in your league but if you look at SOG/game then you’d see Spezza’s name right in the top 50 guys in the NHL.  eventually those shots are going to go in.  this deal comes down to Kovalev vs. Arnott and i think you sold at the right time quite frankly.  Alexei Kovalev is a bit of a headcase if you ask me and he’s enigmatic at the best of times.  if he wants to play then he can dominate a game but if ANYTHING is on his mind or bothering him then he disappears for too long a period.  Arnott is a perenial 30 goal guy if he’s healthy and he’s got an edge to his game.  this deal is already done and … i like it.

trade Patrik Elias and Mathieu Schneider to GOB for Shea Weber and Simon Gagne - Schneider is going to be moved in the next week and odds are that he’s going to have more responsibility as a PP D on whatever team he ends up with.  this offer is designed to try and get you goals.  Weber will out-goal Schneid and when Gagne is back you get an elite goal scorer.  while you wait for Gagne you can IR him and add a Dustin Penner or anyone that you think is going to score goals.

trade Cory Stillman, Mathieu Schneider and Jonathan Toews to Pine Combs for Ryan Smyth, Sheldon Souray and Markus Naslund - this isn’t a keeper league so put your eyes back in your head and desist from the hate mail.  Combs has these guys on the trading block and since goals are the target for your league then you should dangle your fantasy point leader (who isn’t likely to stay the leader) so that you can tweak your goal totals elsewhere. 

trade Patrik Elias to Big Turk for Erik Cole - you’re taking some risk here in terms of possible injury stuff since Cole has a lengthy history there but you’d be taking that chance on the prediction that more goals will translate into more fantasy points.  in your system that’s going to happen if Cole stays healthy.

trade Cory Stillman to Scottie 2 Hottie for Dustin Brown and Bryan McCabe - Scottie has Niedermayer coming back and needs to move a defenseman.  you need anyone who’s going to score goals and both these guys qualify.  to make this happen you’d have to drop your worst option.  now if you don’t believe that Stillman is going to slow down this season then perhaps this isn’t a move you want to make.

Conclusions

well, here we are.  it’s an odd feeling trying to fix a team that isn’t broke.  my general philosophy is that since you’re in 1st place you must be doing something right so what’s the point in tweaking things up? 

your team is solid.  you’ve been hurt by Havlat’s injury and Vanek’s poor start but still you’ve managed to stay ahead of the pack.  i think that if you trade for more goals then you’ll be even better off, so that’s my suggestion.  you do have 5 IR options you can look at filling and if you see goal scorers on your wire who are also on IR then go ahead and add them.  you can always backfill with a decent roster fill-in when you’re in a 9 team league.