Shallow Frozen Water

Terminators

i’d like to introduce you folks to Regi King.  he’s been emailing me periodically and we actually both have connections with our own local churches that is kind of interesting to me.  it’s of little interest to other people but i just want to say that i respect the well rounded person and spirituality is a realm that many people neglect.  Regi doesn’t neglect the spirit and that’s very cool in my books.

Regi plays in a 10 team roto league with the following categories: G, A, +/-, PPP, GWG, W, GAA, SV%, and SHO.  i’m not crazy about having GWG as a cat since it’s rather rare and i’ve never been a fan of SHO because it’s more rare than GWG but … well people don’t ask me to set their leagues for them.  i find it very interesting that you don’t count PIMs as a category, that’s the fantasy hockey category that i think needs to be changed more than the others (i personally prefer some combination of hits and blocked shots).  at any rate, he’s got himself a solid team that only needs to work in a couple categories before it can make a decent move at the championship.  he’s in 2nd place right now.  let’s take a look.

C - Robert Lang (B-), Daymond Langkow (B+)

LW - Ryan Smyth (B-), Tomas Holmstrom (A-)

RW - Markus Naslund (B+), Nikolai Zherdev (B)

D - Niklas Lidstrom (A), Tomas Kaberle (A-), Brian Rafalski (A-), Sergei Zubov (A-)

G - Martin Brodeur (A-), Rick DiPietro (B+)

Bench -  Niklas Backstrom (the goalie) (B+), Wojtek Wolski (B-), Martin Erat (B+), Vaclav Prospal (B+), Pierre-Marc Bouchard (C), Nathan Horton (B-), Pavol Demitra (B-), Mike Modano (C+)

your team is in 2nd place so it’s not like there’s a lot tweaking to do here.  in fact your team is in such good shape that the only principle you need to focus on is how do i get more goals.  you lag behind in the goals category, in PPP and in GWG but if you were to focus on goals alone then the other 2 cats would take care of themselves.

Waiver Wire Options

Martin Havlat - a point/game guy who doesn’t belong on any waiver wire and is just the sort that you want for your team.  he’ll meet your team needs very well and won’t disappoint.  he’s not my favouritest of players but he gets the job done.

Alexander Frolov - streaky scorer but if he can be the basis for any secondary scoring in LA then that is very important to their team and potentially yours.

Patrick Marleau - he’s traditionally a point/game guy that has been in an abysmal slump this season.  he won’t be like this all season and i predict he’ll be viable in any size league through the remainder of the season.

Sean Avery - one of the best PIM options around.  but you don’t count PIMs.  i don’t recall coming across a league that didn’t count PIMs before.

Mark Recchi - he’ll be nice secondary scoring in ATL this season.

Dan Boyle - injured but valuable when he’s back.  unfortunately it’s not known when his return will be.  worth watching the medical reports to see when he’s to return.

Dustin Byfuglien - he’s surprised and kind of came out of nowhere.  many thought he had a problem with fitness level but that has changed this season.  presently he’s playing as a forward on the top line in Chicago but he’s eligible as a defenseman in your league.  it’s always good to get forward’s stats out of a guy that you roster only as a defenseman in your league.

Philippe Boucher - injured but he scored 16 goals last season and will return to hammering the puck when he gets back in a month or so.   he’s another guy to watch out for as he returns from injury.

Joni Pitkanen - his #s are only to go up now that Sheldon Souray is back to help the Oiler PP.  he’s a decent D4 in any size league.

drop Pierre-Marc Bouchard to add Dan Boyle, put him on IR and then add Martin Havlat - Bouchard is secondary scoring on the Wild and both Boyle and Havlat are front line scoring for their respective teams.  i may not like Havlat much but as a hockey player there’s no denying that he’s got skill and you can’t just let a point per game guy sit on your waiver wire.  as for Boyle, you may never use him given the quality of your other defensemen but late in the season he can certainly help you catch up in D games should you fall behind.

drop Mike Modano to add Glen Murray - you actually made this move yourself and … i like it.  Murray has been potting some goals of late so you should take advantage of a hot stick, particularly if he’s getting what you need for your team.

Trading Options

your league may not realize it but despite the fact that you are presently in 2nd place, you are DEFINITELY the team to beat in this league.  it seems that you and the 3 guys at the bottom of the league are the only ones rationing your games played at every position and it seems like the guys at the bottom of the table may’ve already quit on tracking their teams.  you have teams in your league that are already 20 games ahead of the pace at all 3 forward positions so that means that they’ll run out of games to play with 2 months still to go in the season.  that’ll be when you take the league, i’ll predict that now.

it could be that your waiver moves will be enough but in the meantime you might as well mine for some goals.  you’re doing phenomenally well in +/- while others are struggling and that may be the “edge” you need to close out a deal.  you offer comparable stats to someone but take on worse +/- (which you can afford to do) and in so doing you help your goal totals. 

 let me just say here that these offers all involve defensemen because it’s one of your strengths and you can afford the hit there.  obviously you’re not going to want ALL of these deals to go through because you’d decimate your D corps but you want at least ONE of the following deals to work for you.

trade Niklas Lidstrom to Puckheads2 for Ilya Kovalchuk - Puckheads sits at -31 in +/- but has one of the best goal scoring options in the league in Kovalchuk.  they were drafted within 6 picks of one another and he’s just lost Bryan McCabe as a D option.  this won’t hurt you nearly as much as you think it might. 

trade Wojtek Wolski and Brian Rafalski to Flyer Year for Jason Blake and Sheldon Souray - you’re offering up the guy with the most stats in this deal this season so far in Rafalski along with a young guy who’ll get dwindling opportunity as the season wears on so that you can get a couple proven goal scorers who’s drawback may be +/-.  again you can afford the hit in +/- and this will definitely help your goals.

trade Brian Rafalski to Sad Bruins Fan for Olli Jokinen - they were drafted very closely together but if you have to offer Tomas Kaberle instead then you should do so.  mention that Olli’s +/- is at -5 and the offense in Florida may not allow for that to improve.  there’s a big +/- difference between Olli and Rafalski.

trade Sergei Zubov to NC Sabres for Rick Nash - it seems that nobody else in your league has seen the importance of a top flight D quite like you have and Sabres is taking a loss at his D slots by rostering lesser lights.  in this deal you’d get plenty of goals but again you take on a traditional millstone for +/- in Nash, again you can afford it though.

Conclusions

well, actually you don’t need much help at all.  your team is on the threshold of winning this league anyway but i’m hoping just to “nudge” you into the winner’s circle.  you simply need more goals.  it’d help you in G, PPP, and GWG if you added a sniper or two.  i like Havlat for that, Murray will help you there too and you can definitely trade from a position of strength at D in order to add a sniper to your roster.

you’ll be fine Regi.  don’t worry about this, not that you would, especially if you read Matthew 6:34; “Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”

all the best to you my brother.