Shallow Frozen Water

camelshuffle

i have some contacts at ESPN fantasy and one of the guys over there got me looking to build up my profile at espn.com.  the more time i work on my profile over there the more i get to thinking that those profile pages are the facebook for sports nerds.  i did some searches for people interested in hockey at espn and pretty soon i had tripled my friends list(i’m up to 117 presently), in about 2 days.  that’s how i came upon Ryan.  Ryan saw my profile, saw the link to my blog and voila, instant team review option.  Ryan is a lawyer Leaf fan living in Holly-weird and he attended the embarrassment that was the Leafs loss to the Kings last week.  i watched it too, before i had to avert my eyes.  

by the way if anyone wanted to search for me on ESPN profiles you can find me listed as ifergusson28.

Ryan plays in a 12 team H2H league with the following settings: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, SHP, GWG, SOG, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO.  that’s a crapload of categories; a concept that i find far too often and unnecessarily so.  then again, nobody ever asks me how to set up a league in the first place.  essentially this league counts a PPG potentially in 4 separate categories even though it’s really only scored once.  the best way to ensure offense for yourself is just to load up on shooters whenever possible and let your team work it’s own offense out.  now having SV’s and SV% as separate categories?  i just don’t get that, they’re the same stat.  there’s no maximum on transactions so the typical strategy for a H2H league with no max is to stream the crap out of it if you can.  you’d have to protect against your +/- diving like a Winnipeg thermometer but still, streaming will help you everywhere else so i’d be doing that.  Ryan presently sits in 7th, just out of the playoff hunt but sitting right at .500.

let’s take a look:

C   Mike Richards PHI (A-) - great trade bait for your team.  i love his contributions this season and see no reason why they’ll slow down.

C   Daymond Langkow CAL (B) - in a H2H league i like rostering Flames this year because they have more games than most teams during your H2H playoffs.

LW  Ilya Kovalchuk ATL (A) - many have called him the best player on the planet on occasion this season.  he’s certainly a goal scorer extraordinaire.

LW Cory Stillman CAR (B+) - his scoring pace has slowed with Justin Williams not around to help their offense.

RW Chuck Kobasew BOS (C+) - didn’t like him as a Flame last year and it has really surprised me how much he’s actually scoring as a Bruin.

RW Jarome Iginla CAL (A) - i think he may be the best player to own in H2H this season because of scheduling stuff at the end of the year … and the fact that he contributes across the board for your team.

D   Mike Komisarek MON (B) - contributes more to “real” hockey than he does to fantasy hockey but he does have value for PIMs

D   Mike Green WAS (B+) - surprising amount of goalscoring prowess for a team that already knows how to score in every facet of the game.

D   Erik Johnson STL (B-) - love him for keepers but i just think he’s an adequate option in this format

D   empty

util Kristian Huselius CAL (B+) - another Flame.  nice.  if only you could’ve gotten Phaneuf too eh?

G   Cam Ward CAR (B) - struggled recently but a decent option

G   Mathieu Garon EDM (B) - came out of nowhere and the Oil is nearly .500 on the season, that’s more than i expected.

BN Niklas Backstrom MIN (B-) - he has struggled.  it looks like Harding is taking the job away.

BN Josh Harding MIN (B-) - i think the future may be now for him.

BN Jeff Carter PHI (B) - he’s getting goals but i think his ice time will be affected a lot when everyone is back from injury.

BN Antti Miettinen DAL (B-) - i think his stat production isn’t sustainable.  i’d move away from him quickly.

BN Nicklas Backstrom WAS (B) - huge upside.  the coaching change in Landover has really affected his stat production and he’ll produce for the next decade if any keeper leagues are reading this.

IR Jason Williams CHI (C) - he had value for your team at one time but that has passed by now

a few things come to mind immediately.  i hate empty slots in your roster unless you’re streaming the crap out of your team daily, which you’ll need to do anyway.  your RW is in some trouble outside of Iginla, and you need to upgrade your G and D4.

let’s see what can be done.

Waiver Wire Options

basically streaming will mean that daily you go into your waiver wire and find a guy playing tomorrow who won’t hurt your +/- much but will contribute elsewhere in your weekly matchup.  it looks as though the best idea is going to be to drop a C since you’re best set there and that’ll mean deciding between Nicklas Backstrom and Jeff Carter.  i like Backstrom more but Carter does score more goals which could be more valuable in this system.  i’ll let you decide what and when you want to do this.  it should also be noted that your playoffs begin Mar 10 and from that date until the end of the season the Flames, Canucks and Blues play more games than any other teams in the NHL.  when deciding who to trade for, you should let that idea play out in your thoughts between now and then.  some streaming candidates for you are listed below.

Johan Franzen - secondary scoring option who won’t hurt your +/-

Jonathan Cheechoo - guys don’t forget how to play skilled hockey and you’re in position to take some chances that may pay off big.  Cheech is definitely worth taking a chance on.

RJ Umberger - i’m surprised by his contributions this season, but he could help you.

Alexander Semin - he’s been injured but he’s well worth rostering, if only for streaming purposes.  he looks like he may be past the injury stuff finally.

Martin Straka - the streaks for Jagr and Gomez pretty much coincided with Straka’s return to the ice.  he’ll put up stats for a team but +/- looks to be an issue for many Rangers this season.

Teemu Selanne -  i expect that within another couple wks there’ll be an announcement and he’ll be up to full speed within a month.  since RW is your weak spot then he’s an excellent add.

Matt Niskanen - qualified for the Young Stars Western team at the All Star game and with good reason.  you’re going to hear lots about this kid from now to the end of the season.

MA Bergeron - he’s getting PP time but i still have some concerns with him.  however, he’s definitely a streaming option.

Chris Campoli -  Bergeron’s power play partner (not PP partner as i wrote initially).  good streaming option.

Colby Armstrong - many have noticed the stats he’s put up over the last month or so.

Doug Weight - looking comfortable in Anaheim and will only put up better numbers when Selanne is back to solidify the offense more.

Steve Ott - PIMs and pts, probably less pts than you want but more PIMs than you’ll need too.

Kimmo Timonen - should be providing more offense than he is.  it’ll come though.

Tom Gilbert -  if Pitkanen won’t contribute then it’ll be up to this kid to step in alongside Souray.

Joni Pitkanen - should be doing better than he is.

Dan Boyle -  he’s been hurt but when healthy he’s a pure offensive D that fits in incredibly well to a very potent offense.

Bryan McCabe - people forget that he is a very nice offensive option and puts up PIMs too.

Kevin Bieksa - another PIMy option who’ll also provide PPP.  with Sami Salo failing to do anything in Vancouver then the Canucks are going to want this anchor back on the blueline asap. 

drop Jason Williams outright.  drop Chuck Kobasew to add Dan Boyle to your IR (because he’ll return before McCabe i expect) and then add Teemu Selanne - let’s face it, you need some longshots to come in for you if you want to win this league.  you’re not even in a playoff spot so take some chances. 

find a way to stream a spot in your lineup.

Trading Options

your most pressing need is assists.  you lead the league in goals overall but your assist totals drop your down the league standing faster than our Maple Leafs this season.

trade Jeff Carter and Kristian Huselius to TChoke for Scott Gomez and Markus Naslund - Choke is in 1st place and if i were him i wouldn’t want to trade Gomez at all but you need assists and he has them.  i’m not keen on trading away Huselius because of his value at the end of the season but he fit the offer best and is good bait for getting assists plus Naslund has as many games during your H2H playoffs as Huselius does.

trade Mike Richards and Cory Stillman to Pistons for Henrik Sedin and Evgeni Malkin - lots of guys are REALLY high on Richards right now and this offer gets you a lot of assists without hurting your goals base too much.  this isn’t a keeper league so it might get considered (if it were a keeper then guys would just say that Stillman is way to old to make this feasible).  if he balks at this then just point out how much the Canes scored a ton in the first half.

trade Niklas Backstrom (G) and Cory Stillman to Warriors for Paul Kariya and Manny Legace - this trade is designed to maximize the H2H playoff roster.  it’s looking like Harding might become the goalie in Minny anyway so it won’t hurt you to move Nikl-Back.  Warrior has 3 Blues on his roster though and he might not want to move 2 of them away to you.  i think Kariya’s upside in the 2nd half is pretty huge.  if Warrior doesn’t want to do this then maybe suggest a D swap instead and try to get Mark Streit and Legace.

trade Mike Richards and Antti Miettinen to Boosh for Martin St. Louis and Sergei Gonchar - you need A and PPA and these guys you’re targeting are among the best at getting that.  i especially like Gonchar for PPA.  if he’s smart he’ll decline this and then you should target Rolston instead of St Louis with the same offer and that one should fly.

Conclusions

streaming as a strategy is going to help you, just beware your +/-.  there are some options for you to figure out on your wire and you should be smart about your adds.  unfortunately that strategy takes some time every day and you may not have time for that everyday so do what you can and don’t worry about it.  if you can’t find the time to stream then you’re going to want to fill in that D slot with somebody and just let your roster sit or make minor changes as needed.

when you trade, try to target Blues, Canucks, and Flames, they’ll help you in the H2H playoffs.  you already have the 3 offensive Flames worth having so look to balance your offense a little more toward the others.  you can easily offer up Mike Richards and get a handsome package of players back. 

with a little tweaking you have a real shot at the playoffs and i’ve always said that anything can happen in the H2H playoffs since guys rest for the real playoffs and teams that don’t need to win don’t always try as hard as the can.  anything can happen so just get yourself a ticket to the dance and then take your best shot.  it’s looking like your best shot might be pretty good.  good luck Ryan.