Shallow Frozen Water

Olympiques

i’d like to introduce to you a buddy of mine, Steve Knippel (funny last name, always a crowd pleaser.  wouldn’t want it to get more knippel-y here in the Peg than it already is eh Steve? or maybe you do).  on an unrelated note i was in a situation a couple months back where i had the chance to make that “nipple’y” joke but it would’ve been thoroughly inappropriate to do so.  i kept telling myself, “no, don’t say that” and of course, i said it, and i figure i completely embarrassed one of my wife’s co-workers. 

anywho, i met Steve when i was writing for TMR and once i got past the whole “you’re not a psycho killer internet stalker guy” sort of thing it’s been a very good friendship where we go to Manitoba Moose games and talk puck.  he’s a valuable resource for Moose tix and beer.  Steve has this one really deep money keeper pool that he almost roped me into this season but i’m actually a bit glad i didn’t put the cash down on it, i’m already pretty busy with pool stuff as it is and i’m way too cheap to just throw away cash for an expansion team with no hope of competing for 5 years.  Steve also has a league that his brother the navy commander set up and it’s that league that we’ll look at today.  it’s an 11 team roto with game limits at every position.  Steve’s not a games limit guy so he asked for a look-see in the hopes that he’s heading a good direction.

the league has the following settings: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, W, GAA, SV%,  and SHO.  those are generally categories as i like to set them, except for SHO which i think is too rare to get a good stat base for any one team.  the thing that’s throwing him off in this league is the games limit rule where you can only play 82 games at each roster position over the course of the season.  they only roster two guys at each forward position and there are no F or util options in the league at all so that will mean that only the best 22 C (for example) in the game get rostered and there’ll be plenty to choose from on a waiver wire.  for an 11 team league, this thing is VERY shallow and very easy to go over the games limit at every position.  Steve is ahead of the pace at every position except D where he’s -2.  in a league like this you have to think in terms of whether or not your starters are in the top 22 at their position or not and move away from guys who aren’t since resources (games played) at each position are at a premium.

let’s take a look:

C Marc Savard BOS (A-) - at one time he led the league in assists but he’s fallen back since before Christmas.  he’s definitely a top 22C though from where i sit.  traditionally he’s a 100 PIM guy too which is also nice to have in a C1 but he doesn’t seem to want an “edge” to his game this year.

C Nathan Horton FLA (C+) - i pegged him for a humongoid year and he’s really flopped in my books.

LW Alexander Ovechkin WAS (A) - who wouldn’t love to roster him in any format?  i was watching the Pens/Caps game the other day and they pointed out that he saved $5M grr by not having an agent negotiate his contract.  talented and smart.

LW Cory Stillman CAR (B+) - did anyone really expect a pt/game out of him?  i didn’t.  very nice option as an LW3 (since your LW2 is presently injured) though.

RW Erik Cole CAR (B-) - adequate but the worst of your winger options right now and in such a shallow league you can probably do better.

RW Dustin Brown LA (B+) - he’s been a find for you that contributes across the board.  you didn’t draft or trade for him so let me just say, good job.

D Sergei Gonchar PIT (B+) - love this guy for PPP normally but he’ll take a hit there with the loss of Sid for the next 2 months.

D Brian Campbell BUF (B) - underrated and invaluable to the Sabres.  they need to re-sign him despite the fact that he doesnt want to negotiate until the offseason now, i still expect they’ll throw an offer at him soon.  if they don’t sign him then things could really blow apart in Buffalo.

D Shea Weber NAS (C) - he’s done nothing but has obviously been dealing with injury stuff this season.  he’s back now and his stats will go up with his grade in the 2nd half.

D Brent Burns MIN (B) - like him in one year leagues, love him in keeper leagues.  one of the best things for a young defenseman is a coach who emphasizes defence.  i think that Jacques Lemaire will be very good for Burns’ development in the defensive zone first and then down the road in the offensive zone in all situations.  they want this kid to turn into Ray Bourque not Bryan Berard.

G Evgeni Nabokov SJ (A-) - he has started all but 1(!) game for the Sharks this season, think about that.  he doesnt seem to be wearing down at all and they’ll want to give Tomas Greiss more starts down the stretch but Gene is carrying the load and doing great as a top 5 G this season.

G Mathieu Garon EDM (B) - no way i would’ve graded him in the B’s had you asked pre-season but that’s ok, surprises happen all the time in this game eh?  he’s stolen the job away from a very competent guy (Rolly the goalie) and he’s showing that he belongs with an Edmonton squad that is doing about as well as i expected this season.

BN Martin “Darth” Gerber OTW () - i first heard this moniker on HNIC and i’ve also heard one guy attributing the nickname to a poster on dobberhockey, don’t know which came first but it fits.  i’d rather entrust my G3 to a guy that i KNOW is going to get the starts, although he’s been a very good option so far this season.

BN Christoph Schubert OTW (C+) - your worst D option now that Cory Murphy is back on the ice.

BN Cory Murphy FLA (C) - upside for him is huge and he’ll be fine if he stays healthy.  you’ve waited a long time for him but if he falters again you can’t afford to wait more and you’ll have to cut ties.

BN Teemu Selanne ANA (na) - if i had to grade i’d have to give him a failing grade because he’s been on vacation all this time.  i expect a press conference within a couple weeks though but it should be noted that the FA signing deadline is in late Feb (the 26th i think).

IR Mike Cammalleri LA (B-) - when healthy he was the best goal scorer in the league (for a month or so at the start of the season), but he hasn’t been healthy much of late.  he still has value but his grade drops the longer he’s shelved.

well, that’s an interesting mix.  your bench has some guys who aren’t playing right now or at least recently and i think your G3 is about to lose most of his playing time.  you’re ahead of the pace at all of your forward positions and i think that’s fine except at C where you really should be rostering a better C than Nathan Horton who doesn’t fall into the top 22 at C (in my opinion).  Cory Stillman and Dustin Brown have surprised enough to be rosterable in a shallow league like this  but it’s looking like Erik Cole may be a gamble that hasn’t and won’t pay off much.  you have some depth at D that you can trade from as you climb the slight mole-hill to get back even with the D pace at games played.  Teemu will take over for Cole eventually and potentially Cammalleri could return to form to replace Horton, whenever that happens.  as trade bait you have some D depth and Darth Gerber that you could move … soon. 

looking at the standings, your +/- is an atrocious -26 and if you don’t improve on that, you won’t win.  you’re doing decently in G but you need some more A,  PPP would be nice too.

Waiver Wire Options

Henrik Sedin - he may be just what you’re looking for; A and PPP with a +/- that will help you toward respectability.

Alexander Frolov - had a hot month or so and is among the streakiest forwards in the fantasy game, his +/- could hurt though, like many Kings this season.

Alexander Semin - looks to finally be over the injury hurdle and showing skills that he’s possessed all along.  decent option for the 2nd half.

Andy MacDonald - sleeper pick for pts in the 2nd half.  there are probably better options on the wire but he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Nicklas Backstrom - the way to keep the 2 Backstroms separate in your own mind is to note that the C Backstrom has a “c” in his first name, the G doesn’t.  he’s lining up with AO and leapt into the rookie scoring lead for the month recently with 8 pts (all assists) in 2 games.  nice.

Anze Kopitar - actually pronounced “On-zhay” so no more pansie jokes ok?  aw screw it, there’s no way i can resist making stupid comments, they please me.  +/- is a concern but not much of one if you look at his last month’s stats.

Scott Hartnell - he goes snaky for PIMs and has a deadly shot of late.  i’m rather proud of predicting his breakout around mid Dec, not that you care about that.

Todd Bertuzzi - traditional power forward threat.  his stats will be hurt as ice time lessens with the return of Selanne.

Tobias Enstrom - A and PPP.  you need this guy.

Antero Niittymaki - Steve coined the term of “sushi-boy” for Niity and Kipper since their names do sound very sushi-like.  i think he takes the starting job in Philly for the rest of the season but not many believe me or agree.

Patrick Lalime - there’s talk of trading the Wall away because Lalime is doing so well.

drop Nathan Horton for Henrik Sedin - Kopitar may outscore Hank for the rest of the season but he still has +/- issues to worry about and you can’t afford to worry about it.  Hank will help you where you need it and is a safer choice.

drop Erik Cole for Scott Hartnell - you need a LOT of PIMs to move up a few roto pts but Hartnell will give some and should at least provide as many goals as Cole would’ve anyway.

drop Christoph Schubert for Tobias Enstrom - Enstrom doesn’t belong on a wire, Schu is your worst D option and you need what Toby provides, plenty of A and PPP.

Trading Options

this league is full of navy guys, so they may not be able to change their roster daily.  maybe that’s why the games limits and the shallow roster spots are there eh?  those guys need a league that will play out with minimal attention required on their parts.  that will also make it harder to trade, you probably know that already though.  your main trade bait is D depth and Martin “Darth” Gerber.

trade Nathan Horton and Shea Weber to Eat my Puck for Dany Heatley - i include this first because you put it on the board yourself.  this trade addresses your desire to even out your games played by adding the best player of the 3 who you actually can’t play for a month.  during this time it’s assumed you would’ve evened out on the games played pace.  i doubt Puck is gonna go for this, i know i wouldn’t, but it’s just a first offer and if it gets the juices flowing then there are some good directions to go to.

trade Mike Cammalleri or Henrik Sedin and Martin Gerber to Cisco Slix for Jason Spezza and Jose Theodore - this offer is problematic so long as Cammalleri is on the IR but were he to come off or if he’d take Hank then i love this deal for you.  you can afford whatever drop you’d take from Gerber to Theodore, particularly if the hairball keeps monopolizing all the starts in Colorado like he has of late.  before i move on to other offers though, THIS is the offer that you want to go after.  Slix is your best trade partner, he has what you need (an A’ing C) and he needs what you have to offer.  it’ll cost you a G (Gerber) and a winger but this deal is there to be had.  do not go so far as to offer up Ovechkin in this deal at any time but definitely go after it.  trading for Spezza “could” win you this league.

trade Cory Murphy and Martin Gerber to Bruin-Crew for Mark Streit and Nikolai Khabibulin - this is a risky trade offer that could blow up in your face so stop and think about it before you make it.  you’re taking a chance that the Wall doesn’t continue to sit on the bench and watch Lalime take his starts but Streit is arguably the better option for D.  now that Murphy is back on the ice you might just consider sticking with him instead of Streit.  you’d also have to watch Streit’s +/- if you made this move but … well sometimes you have to roll the dice.

trade Martin Gerber and Teemu Selanne to puckhogs for Pavel Datsyuk - i’m not sure this is enough today but as soon as they have the press conference for Teemu then this move is gold for both of you.  puckhog is actually playing with only 1 RW, apparently on purpose.  this offer at least addresses this for him.  adding Datsyuk would really help your +/-.

Conclusions

in a shallow league you need to make sure your roster elite guys as your starters, and you’re not doing that at the F positions.  you have a small window in order to try and trade away assets before their value sinks faster than a Peg thermometer.  i think Gerber is the best trade bait you have and you do have a little depth at D that you could move.

the waiver suggestions are just there because you need certain things and i think the replacements are better options for your team.  if you don’t agree that’s ok, you have your right to be wrong.

you MUST get better +/- and i know from discussions with you that we agree that +/- is a crapshoot.  the C that i’ve targeted in your trade offers will help you with assists and +/-, PPP is always good too and they’ll be stars there for you also.  go after Spezza first and Datsyuk second if nothing is happening with Spezz.  the Streit deal i suggest is in case the others aren’t going anywhere, then you’ll need to beef up your assists from your D.  a lot of people undervalue Streit as an option.

i’ll collect on that beer at the next game we go to.  i’m looking forward to it.