Shallow Frozen Water

Lucky Charms

Kevin Benkie is an Oiler fan living in Cowtown, poor SOB.  he’s been a lifelong fan and he played Senior A hockey until his age caught up with him.  in other words, he probably hit 30 and realized that the mortgage won’t be paid that way and his knees may never forgive him.  he seems like a decent enough guy, for an Oiler fan.  you must be loads of fun at work parties surrounded by Flames fan, you should wear your jersey just to mess with their heads a bit.

Kevin got in touch with me through Dobberhockey.com and since Dobber has done me a solid by letting me submit the occasional article on his site let me just point all of you readers Dobber’s way.  it is definitely one of the best pure fantasy hockey sites on the net.  Anywho … Kevin is in 10th in a 20 team roto salary cap keeper at CBSSportsline.  He gets to keep 8 guys from year to year and inflation on a keeper price is 20% toward next year’s price with the exception of anyone who plays more than 15 games and is cheaper than $20, he’ll automatically go to $20 next year.  There is a $1000 salary cap (hopefully not real $$, unless you can afford that then all the more power to ya)(hey buddy, can ya spare a mortgage payment?).  The stat categories are: G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, SOG, W, S%, SV, and GAA but they tweak the system a bit by making all offensive categories worth double the goalie cats.  that means that the offensive cats earn 40 roto pts each while the goalie cats earn 20 rotos each.  kinda downgrades goalie stats … a lot.

let’s take a look, i’ll * your keeps for you.

C David Clarkson NJ $5 (B-) - PIM/pt combinations are a good thing and this kid came out of nowhere this year (at least i didn’t have him on the radar and few i’ve read did either).  it’d be good to try and get him back in next year’s auction/draft.

C * Pavel Datsyuk DET $114 (A) - many declared him an MVP candidate for most of the first half and he should still be considered one.  the price is getting up there for him but you should be fine keeping him for a couple more years yet.  now if you can get a great deal on a young superstud for him then go ahead and make the move.

C Viktor Kozlov WAS $70 (C-) - just not a fan.  there’s no way i would’ve paid this much for him and i certainly wouldn’t announce it to the world.  both my readers are going to be embarrassed for you (hee hee).

C * Peter Mueller PHX $5 (B) - i just remember his little shootout duel with Jonathan Toews at the World Jrs and even though everyone loved Toews after that i couldn’t help thinking “hey what about that Mueller kid?  he’ll be a star too”.  he will be and $20 is a great price for what will be a superstar.  some guys say that Turris is going to be the top C in PHX but i think it’s going to be Mueller, kid’s more durable by what i can see.

C Joe Sakic COL $236 (B) - his grade sunk because he was hurt but Burnaby Joe is great trade bait for your team.  offer him up to everyone with a shot at winning the whole thing, take back a lesser light with an exhorbitant price and request an upgrade on a keeper option at the same time.

W * Alexander Frolov LA $35 () - i don’t know why but his name sounds like it belongs on a hobbit.  as far as i’m concerned he’s your last keeper option since he can be too streaky for my taste but is valuable as a keep.  if you can upgrade your option here you’ll be in a much better situation and that’s going to be the heart of all my suggestions for you today.

W * Marian Gaborik MIN $52 (B+) - if you can’t have AO then arguably you want a guy who’ll score in bunches, and Gabby does that.  if only the guy would stay as healthy as he basically has this year.  the price is right for him though, for a lot of years.

W Ales Kotalik BUF $29 (B-) - PPP specialist.  the price is good and he’s a decent starter for your team.  not a keeper option but a decent starter for your team.

W Marek Svatos COL $24 (B) - he’s done for the year but he gave you some goals that were helpful. 

D * Kevin Bieksa VAN $20 (C-) - the man is a horse and could end up Chris Pronger good down the road.  the price is right for keeping and yes i like him as a keep ahead of younger guys further down this list.

D * Dan Boyle TB $50 (B-) - few D have 20 goals in them per season but Boyle definitely does.  he did it last year and if he’s healthy he’ll do it again next year.  when he’s healthy there aren’t many better offensive fantasy options found in any D corps.

D Braydon Coburn PHI $5 (B) -  he’s going to be a 40 pt D next year and for a lot of years to come.  i’d like to consider him as a keep ahead of Bieksa but i just don’t see him PIMming as much as Bieksa with very similar offensive stats.

D Derek Morris PHX $30 (C) - it was a gamble that he’d return to the offensive prowess he showed as a Flame a couple years back.  that’s not happening though and i wouldn’t pay this much for him every again.

D Tom Poti WAS $165 (D) - wow.  did you get to the end of your auction and realized you had a ton of money left to spend?  to be fair Poti was supposed to be a PP monster for the Caps this year but those bucks have netted you 1 goal.  i’m not a fan and i suspect you won’t be either from here on out.

G Kari Lehtonen ATL $5 (C+) - actually in a league like this, this is a decent move.  you got a starting goaltender for $5, playing with an offense that was supposed to score a ton, and a team that was supposed to challenge for the division and a playoff spot.  that hasn’t worked out but for the price, this is still a decent move.

res * Derick Brassard CBS $5 (C) - kid’s only played 17 games but that means you’ll have to pay $20 for him next year.  he’ll get loads of opportunity next year since Federov is gone and someone will have to line up with Nash and/or Zherdev.  i’m expecting big things out of this kid, immediately, well ok, next year immediately.

res Claude Giroux PHI $1 (na) - 2 games this year and it doesn’t look like a spot will be opening up for him anytime soon.  since you only keep 8 guys you have to be careful who sits on your bench and i just wonder if a FA would’ve been better for your team’s needs this year.

res David Perron STL $17 (C) - getting a bit of a reputation as a bit spoiled.  Dobber reported recently that he threw up his hands in frustration when a teammate didn’t finish one of his passes and i suspect someone will either sit Jr down for a chat or somebody’s gonna flatten him.  then again, attitude never hurt Dion Phaneuf as a hockey player so maybe we’ll see.

res Brett Sterling ATL $1 (D) - might get some opportunity next year but i suspect he’ll be more than a year away anyway.

res Kurtis Foster MIN $30 (B) - he’s young, he’ll get better and there aren’t many better options manning the D in Minny.  the price tag is too high on him though.

res Kris Russell CBS $5 (C-) - i suspect the Jackets traded for Tarnstrom because Russello wasn’t cutting it in what they want him to do.  he’s probably a bit away too.

first reactions are that your reserve list is full of guys that you can’t keep and won’t contribute to your team this year.  shop Giroux around to see if anyone bites.  Coburn is another guy who could be a viable keeper option and he’d be a very interesting option as a throw-in in order to upgrade your last keeper (Frolov).  or how about throwing in both of them? 

it’s too bad that Brassard played more than 15 games this year, his price will jump to $20 next year and it would’ve been nice to keep him at the deflated price for another year.  he’ll produce for you though, next year.

Waiver Wire Options

there are some young guys to consider on  your wire but nobody that will help you this year and nobody to consider as a keeper ahead of the guys you’ve already reserved.  there are a couple names you might want to look at as a cheap option in your auction/draft next year though.

Nigel Dawes - if he’s playing with Jagr he’s very valuable.  he’ll grow into his offense more and they’ll need someone to replace Jagr at some time in the near future, that somebody isn’t Dawes but it’s not like he’s a troglodyte with hands of stone either.

Keith Yandle - i love him for pure speculative offense next year and beyond.  it’s not really worth it to try and keep him since his $20 price tag next year is too much for what he’d give your team but still, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

T.J. Hensick - the Avs have several young guys that will carry the banner down the road.  Hensick could very well be a decent C2 later.

Nikolai Khabibulin - a goalie who wins is really all you need in this league.  the Wall has a Cup on his resume so … he knows how to win.

Sergei Kostitsyn - i don’t think he’ll be what his brother will be but he’s another guy worth watching on what is looking like quite an exciting team (ew, now i feel dirty having expounded on the goodness of the Habs.  as a Leaf fan i should confess my sins).

Trade Options

you’re not winning.  sorry to be the bearer of bad news.  that’s kinda like saying “no offence but …”, everybody knows you’re about to be offensive so why make it worse by lying.  sorry about that too.  anyway, you’re not winning.  that means you need to play up the 3 guys with a shot at the championship to see if you can upgrade on your keepers.  offer up your expensive guys so that he can get some stats for a championship and offer to take an expensive guy back along with a nice keeper option.  you should also sort through the names on your league’s trading block to see if there might be something to go after there. 

in any trade done you have to stay below the $1000 cap so keep your calculator handy.

trade Alexander Frolov and Braydon Coburn to Bullets for Alexander Radulov ($20) - this essentially trades 2 keeper options away to a guy who needs options in order to land one very solid and better keeper option.  Bullets has loads of room under the cap so he can make this fit too.

trade Joe Sakic, Alexander Frolov and Braydon Coburn to BBD for Henrik Sedin ($29), Wade Redden ($235), and Jussi Jokinen ($80) - in this offer you both give up a lot of high priced names but you’re doing this deal to get an option on Henrik as a keeper option, a better keep than Frolov would be.  you offer BBD more stats for him to make a run, it fits both your caps and you get a better keep.  this is very doable.

trade Claude Giroux and a draft pick to Weebee’s Pucksters for Jason Pominville ($20) - Pominville is a very much underrated fantasy asset who’ll be a better keep than your worst option (Frolov) for a cheaper price down the road.

offer Joe Sakic, Alexander Frolov and Braydon Coburn to SNAFU for Ryan Getzlaf ($24), Brendan Shanahan ($210), and Matt Niskanen ($52) - SNAFU is in a dogfight for the championship and should want to take a shot at winning the whole thing, all it’d cost is a keeper option on Getzlaf.  you’d even be able to consider on option on Niskanen if you like but i say that because he’s one of my faves for a long and successful career, but you’d do this deal in order to get Getz for the next decade.

offer one of David Perron, Claude Giroux or Braydon Coburn and a 3rd round pick to Rebels for Marty Turco ($72) - you’re going to have to throw in Viktor Kozlov to make both teams fit under the cap but that’s perfectly fine.  your league downgrades goalie stats but even in this system Turco is a good option for the next couple years.  initial negotiations here indicated that Rebels wanted a keeper and a 1st round pick for Turco and if that continues then bail out of this deal.  getting Turco is fine but paying too much for a guy that can only contribute at half the level as all the offensive players on your team isn’t wise.  maybe that’s the reason that Rebels is in last place.

offer Alexander Frolov, David Perron, and Braydon Coburn to Lightning for Jason Spezza ($35) - Lightning is in 1st place and probably isn’t going to want to mortgage his future like this but … ya never know.  obviously this would be a significant upgrade on a keep like Frolov.

Conclusions

well ok, your big challenge is to upgrade your keeps where you can.  do that by trying to take advantage of guys who are still in a fight for the prize.  a simple approach is to go after inexpensive options on whoever has at shot at winning or sorting through your trade block for bargains.  Joe Sakic is great trade bait for the guys at the top of the pool and you can offer to take away his expensive guy so long as you also get a bargain keep option.  that’s exactly the plan with your targeting of Spezza, Getzlaf and H. Sedin.  i think all 3 of those offers have some chance at success.  all the other offers are shots at guys who might be available as a bargain.  there has to be SOME reason the other guy put them on the trade block so find out what the price tag is.  don’t be afraid to offer up guys who don’t plan to keep but also don’t tell the other guy you don’t intend to keep him, no sense just showing your cards like that.

now, if nothing works out then you’ll still be fine.  you have yourself a more than fine collection of young, inexpensive talent for the most part.