Shallow Frozen Water

Great Expectations

“I want to top expectations. I want to blow you away.” - Quentin Tarantino

Happy Friday everyone. For many of you this is the last day of the work week, or even better, the first day of the weekend. For me, it’s NHL season Eve, the day before the real fun begins over in Europe and the NHL 2008-2009 NHL hockey season starts its long trek towards the Stanley Cup.

My name is Joel and I’m looking forward to putting down some thoughts on the fantasy hockey world every Friday. I’m an Oiler fan at heart, but in general just a real fan of the game of hockey and one of my favorite ways to spend the long winters where I live is fantasy hockey. I hope this can be more of a conversation on what’s going on in the league and how that effects our fantasy hockey squads, then an advice column.

Do the names Brandon Bochenski, Jon Sim and Andrew Hutchinson strike fear into your heart? Do they instantly make you think “NHL star” when you think of them? Likely not. But during preseason action in various years, these players, and many like them, were either leading the league in points during the preseason, or in the case of Bochenski, impressing alongside some very skilled players (Heatley and Spezza) and making people wonder if a diamond in the rough had been discovered.

Sadly, reality came crashing down around these guys and all 3 have had varying degrees of success but nothing near what their respective preseason delights offered us. The challenge every year is identifying which players are going to be preseason flashes in the pan, and which ones are for real. As young players and bubble veterans alike try to live out Tarantino’s words and impress the boss, sometimes the most mundane of players can look like NHL stars. (Interestingly enough, Bochenski had another 3 point night this preseason, teasing like he did not that long ago.)

So which players are for real this year and which ones are likely to come back down to earth once the regular season starts?

Dustin Boyd and David Moss - These two have been tearing it up through the first chunk of games this year. High energy, defensively responsible, young players who have seen lots of opportunities for ice time as the veterans ease their way into regular playing shape. Moss is a guy who will make an excellent checking forward, kill some penalties and be a great team guy, but won’t put up a lot of points. Boyd on the other hand is a guy that has some offensive potential. That being said, he’ll be stuck on the third line this year unless there are some injuries and once the level of play hits regular season levels his production will drop off dramatically. In a few years Boyd will be regularly putting up points but for now temper your expectations of him.

Tuukka Rask - Rask is the future in between the pipes in Boston, but he has also been the best goalie out of the gates for the team. With Thomas and Fernandez both looking less then sharp is it perhaps time to hand the reigns over to the young Finn goaltender? The short answer is not yet. While he has been remarkable thus far (and who can forget his first star performance against the Leafs in his debut), the Bruins don’t need another Raycroft or Toivonen situation on their hands. They will handle their young star carefully and look for him to start easing his way into more of a full time role next year.

Jannik Hansen - The speedy Dane has been impressive yet again this preseason and if not for an unfortunate injury, there is some speculation that he would have made the Canucks roster out of the gate last year. Hansen was a late round pick that is looking to be a surprise and while I don’t see him putting up 60 points in the league right away, Hansen has the skills (and the opportunity on an uncertain Canucks roster) to score 15 goals this year if the stars align.

Andy McDonald, Lee Stempniak, Brad Boyes - These three have been playing on a line together and sit 1,2 and 3 in goals and points so far. McDonald in particular has been superb with 11 points in 4 games, and has had the benefit of setting up Boyes and Stempniak on numerous occasions. While Boyes’ goal scoring prowess is well known, I’ve always been a little gunshy of his high shooting percentage and wondered if he is going to carry that kind of scoring into his career. Watching these 3 together has been a beautiful thing and Stempniak hitting his stride could be the final piece for these guys to put together a heck of a season. They are for real and while I don’t expect McDonald to continue at the torrid pace he has set so far, a point per game pace should be attainable once again and Boyes could be looking at yet another 40 goal season. The Blues are going to need it from guys like them if they are going to try and edge out some of the bubble teams and make the playoffs this year.

The season starts over the pond tomorrow and then back in North America on Thursday October 9th. The speculation will soon be over and we’ll get the chance to see who is for real and who Bochenski’s themselves down and out come the end of the season.