Gordon Bell is Quebecois.  I was thinking that it must be a pen name or something when an obvious Francophone (by writing style) had an Anglophone moniker attached but it turns out that I just shouldn’t go around making assumptions.  The pen name that he wanted to go with turned out to be “le prez” and so … let me introduce you to The Prez as I call him.  He’s a Scottish heritage francophone living in Quebec City.  We first had real contact during the World Championships in QC this spring and I was jealous that he got seats to any such thing.  Prez plays in a 10 team roto keeper league.  It was a 12 teamer last year but two guys packed it in and they had to run a little dispersal draft.  My first thought was, “COOL, a dispersal draft”.  I won’t bore you with many details except to say that Prez somehow got his hands on the 3^rd, 5^th, 14^th and 19^th picks so he added Henrik Lundqvist, Andrei Markov, Tomas Kaberle, Chris Osgood, and Derick Brassard.  I didn’t realize how significant that Brassard pick was until we came to keeper options.

Everyone in this league keeps 5 forwards regardless of position, 3 defensemen, and 2 goalies plus everyone gets to keep 3 rookies for two years max on top of the other keeps.  Getting Brassard in the dispersal draft was HUGE for your team next year when I expect him to contribute big for the Jackets.

This league counts points only for skaters and gives 2 pts for a goalie win, 2 more for a shutout.

Who to keep

Your roster looks like this (keepers are signified with an *):

* Vincent Lecavalier – guys have been down on him a bit but I expect a big bounceback to numbers not unlike 2 seasons ago.

* Martin St. Louis – the Lightning aren’t going to stink any more, they’ve been signing offensive options out the wazoo and they hope that Matt Carle becomes who he’s supposed to become.

* Marian Hossa – lots of fantasy guys are all abuzz with the idea of Hossa lining up with Datsyuk/Zetterberg.  Yes please.

* Zach Parise – if the reins come off him a little bit more then I see 40 goal seasons for a decade or so.  If he were in Philly he’d be better than Daniel Briere.

Daniel Briere – if he were in Jersey … he’d have to play with John Madden or something.  I still don’t see the production anytime soon in Philly that he put up during his last season in Buffalo.

Simon Gagne – risky but high reward too.

Patrick Marleau – less reward than Gagne but less risk too.

* Nicklas Backstrom – me likey, especially in a keeper league.  I realize he was a rook last year but you actually kept him 2 years ago so he doesn’t qualify as a rookie keep this season.

Tuomo Ruutu – just not a fan.  I can’t believe that Carolina is banking on big numbers out of him, I just don’t see it happening.

* (r) Derick Brassard – the Jackets offense is going to be SCARY.  Soon.

* (r) James Sheppard – maybe one day he can be Zach Parise but I don’t think you want to wait as long as it’ll take before he has enough value in a 10 team league.

Igor Grigorenko – upside, sure but can you wait how long it’ll take before you get to see it?  I can’t.

Joe Corvo – some are very high on him putting up really big numbers in Carolina but you only get 3 D keeps and he doesn’t make the cut.

* Tomas Kaberle – I’m a Leaf fan so remember that but I also think that he’ll be a top 3 option for your D next season.

* Brent Burns – I’d just plain keep him around the roster forever … or a decade … whichever comes first.

* Andrei Markov – the Montreal PP didn’t miss a beat after shedding Sheldon Souray because Markov played off so well against some significant talent up front.  I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Ian White – yeah … uh, no.

Ryan Whitney – I’ll probably catch it a bit from guys reading this because Whitney is just plain skilled but I’m not as high on him as others are and I think he’ll be great trade bait for you to upgrade your keepers elsewhere.

* Roberto Luongo – yeah, this is a pretty good keep.  Duh.

* Henrik Lundqvist – I can’t believe that you have arguably the 2 best keeper goalies in the game right here on your roster.

Chris Osgood – you only start 2 goalies so I’d actually look at shopping him pretty hard before you have to submit your keeper list.

* (r) Josh Harding – I think he steals the job away this season and within a couple years he might be the next great goalie keep.

What to do, what to do

So the argument here centers around who doesn’t make the cut.  Whitney, Briere, Gagne, Marleau and Osgood can all be decent keeps for their own sakes.  I’m going to argue that you can move some of these guys for upgrades elsewhere.  So … does the Prez trust his advisor?  Hey, it’s your team man and the final decision is going to rest on you.  Just stay away from the little red button, we don’t want an international incident over Whitney vs. Kaberle.

Ok, so let’s see if we can upgrade.  I’d like to upgrade your rookie keeps if possible, see about upgrading your D options and shop around for any interest in your non-keeper guys.

Whitney/Kaberle/Parise for Brian Campbell and Alexander Radulov – you began by offering up fringe keepers in order to get an upgrade elsewhere and this is how things came to be.  In a keeper league I love this deal and I was surprised that it actually happened.  It should be noted that this happened before the Radulov “incident” signing in Russia although there was all the talk of various NHL guys moving to Russia.  That incident still hasn’t played itself out at the time of this writing so in the end you may be keeping Radulov if he’s playing in North America or you just overpaid for Brian Campbell by a pretty severe margin. 

Markov/Marleau for Sergei Gonchar and Michal Rozsival – you weren’t keeping Marleau anyway but this deal helps your D immensely so that you now have decide between Rosie and Burns for your 3^rd D keep.  My choice is still going to be Burns.

Briere/Osgood for Ilya Kovalchuk – this never went anywhere but it was a decent offer given the league parameters.

Briere/Corvo/St.Louis for Sidney Crosby – Sid’s owner might’ve put him on the table but nothing ever came of this offer.  If I had received it I would’ve declined it too but it was still worth a shot.

James Sheppard and Simon Gagne for Patrick Kane – on face value that can work but because you keep rookies then you have to offer up a rookie to get one back.  In the end this idea didn’t fly.

Players going out – Tomas Kaberle, Ryan Whitney, Zach Parise, Andrei Markov, and Patrick Marleau.

Players coming in – Brian Campbell, Alexander Radulov, Sergei Gonchar, Michal Rozsival.

Keepers – Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Marion Hossa, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Radulov (or Daniel Briere if Radulov is in Russia), James Sheppard (rookie), Derick Brassard (rookie), Brian Campbell, Sergei Gonchar, Brent Burns, Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist and Josh Harding (rookie).

Rostered but not kept for next year – Daniel Briere (or Alexander Radulov if he’s playing in Russia), Simon Gagne, Michal Rozsival, Tuomo Ruutu, Igor Grigorenko, Joe Corvo, Ian White, and Chris Osgood.

Conclusions

Well, you upgraded your forward keeps from Zach Parise to Alexander Radulov and the hope is that he plays out his contract in North America.  This move would’ve helped if Radulov plays in Nashville because of the system he plays in as opposed to the system Parise plays in.  You took a chance on this move and it could very well be that it bit you on the butt.  Again, if Radulov is playing in North America then this is still a very nice move for your team, if he’s in Russia … not so much.

You also upgraded your D keeps from Kaberle/Markov/Burns to Campbell/Gonchar/Burns.  With Campbell leading the way from the back end in Chicago he’ll undoubtedly have more to work with than Kaberle will in Toronto.  The Habs PP will still have to be feared and Markov will have a good chunk of the reason for that but when it comes to pure PP offense from the rearguard then there are few better options than Sergei Gonchar anywhere.  Burns continues as your third keeper and I see him as a young upside option for the next decade and a better long term option than either Joe Corvo or Michal Rozsival will be.

It’s a shame that we couldn’t find a taker for Chris Osgood.  In a league like yours that counts wins and shutties then who wouldn’t want the starting goalie for the Stanley Cup champions?  I’d advise you to keep him yourself but you need to think a bit more down the road in that situation.  It’s too bad really.

Prez and I both agree that the biggest crime in this whole experience is that we couldn’t work Briere into a deal and now he has to lose him for nothing.  If Radulov isn’t a keeper then Briere resumes his keeper slot though and otherwise you can go get Briere back in your September draft.

It was a pleasure to work with you Prez, all the way from a dispersal draft through maximizing your keeper options.  May your approval rating always be going up.

I’ve been emailing back and forth with Paul Miller about his hockey team for going on 3 seasons now.  When I first looked at his league it scared the crap out of me because it seemed so convoluted when you add the salaries and the expiring contracts and stuff like that but once you get your feet wet then it all ain’t so bad.  Let me encourage the rest of you to dive right into some indepth league and have a blast with it.  If you’re going into a league like this one then you should review my last two month’s submission to “An Expert’s Audit” for a few extra pointers on how to stay afloat in a salary league.

Let’s get right to it.  Paul plays in a 10 team salary league with 25 man rosters and a reserve roster of minor leaguers and bench options with salary attached.  Each team starts 15 forwards (no positional requirement), 7 defensemen, and 3 goalies.  You keep 12 guys plus your farm team since they don’t count toward your cap until they’re actually in the NHL.  The league’s roto style has for its categories: G, A, +/-, PIM, and Goalie Wins + (2 x shutouts).  That lone goalie category makes this league a bit quirky since every starter in the NHL will be starting in this league but there are no ratios to worry about.  Goalies who get shutties are GOLD, particularly if you can get up near 40 wins on the season too.  The auction salary cap is $250 and the in-season cap is $300.

Paul won this league this past season … by a single roto point.  He rode all the way to a championship on the elite goaltending of Roberto Luongo, the stellar goal scoring of Ilya Kovalchuk and the PIMy influence of Chris Pronger.  Unfortunately all of those guys’ contracts expired and they all go back into the auction.  You’ll want to go after them again.  And yes, you should pay dearly for them.  Your team weakness last year was assists and you’ll want to address that somehow this season.

Keeping the right guys

You should be asking yourself these question every offseason; who’s affordable?  Who do I base my team on?  What will my team need most next season?

Your 12 keeps are:

Evgeni Malkin $16 (signed through 2010) – nice.  No wait, FREAKING nice.  Nuff said.

Brendan Morrow $18 (can be extended) – I actually think this is a bit pricey for him and would’ve been more militant about my opinion here if his season this year had been like the season before.  I’m not in favour of signing him long term on your team.

Johan Franzen $8 (can be extended) – he’s learned from Tomas Holmstrom and now you’ll see that he becomes a better version of him.  Lock him up for your squad.

Jochen Hecht $1 (can be extended) – one of my fave hockey names out there since I love to pronounce with the German “ch” sound like I’m a cat with a huge hairball.  Dude’s hugely underrated, great two way option on a Sabres team that is going to come back to prominence if they can get any sort of offense generated from the back end.  A 20 goal season seems about right for him though so I wouldn’t worry much about going with a long term contract for him, you can probably keep getting him back cheap in an auction any year down the road.

Kristian Huselius $2 (2 more years max from him) – I’m not a huge fan actually but there’s no way anyone can resist the price tag here.  If he’s in Calgary I like him more than just about any other place I can think of.  I hope he re-ups in Cowtown.

Ryan Malone $6 (can be extended) – he’s an NHL RFA but I don’t see him going anywhere else.  He was born in Pittsburgh and they kinda have something going on with that team, he’ll re-up there I expect and everyone will be happy.  He’s a 30 goal 100 PIM guy next year if he’s in Pitt.

Chris Kunitz $12 (can be extended) – the price tag seems a bit steep to me and you might want to consider him in part of a package to get some help elsewhere but if that doesn’t happen then he’s still got 30 goal upside.

Dion “PIMy D” Phaneuf $16 (locked up long term) – people just don’t get how valuable this guy is in fantasy hockey, they see that the best D’s in the game get 50 pts so they’d rather lock up a 60 pt forward instead.  That’s a mistake my friends, you can still lock up your forwards after you’ve locked in your elite options on D.  Few D contribute EVERYWHERE like PIMy D does.  The first thing I said to Paul was to lock up Dion for as long as he can.  My work is done here.

Brent Burns $9 (can be extended) – when I look at young NHL’ers I try to give a picture of what he’s capable of, and Burnie is hard to peg.  Think Ray Bourque with a bit of a mean streak.  I think he can be Ray Bourque one day, wouldn’t that be phenomenal?  Lock him up longterm Paul.

Brett Clark $4 (can be extended) – steady.  Underrated.  40 pt assist option that’s a solid choice for a D3 or 4 on your team.  If you decided not to keep him I’m pretty sure you can get him back at the end of an auction for cheaper or the same price.  You also have Dennis Wideman at $10 and Michal Rozsival $14 that you could consider keeping ahead of him if you think you can spare the extra couple bucks out of your auction.

Ryan Miller $16 (signed through 2010) – how soon people forget that the Sabres were the Prez trophy winners in 2007 and they were definitely decimated by some injury, disappointing stat production and some key FA departures.  You know what though, the Sabres are going to be back and Ryan Miller is going to be a high 30 game winner again.  What?  I said it.  What? 

Manny Legace $1 (can be extended) – it’s probably wisest to just let Manny ride out his 3 year contract with you.  Marek Schwarz isn’t the answer but who knows what the Blues are going to do either.  Manny is certainly a fine G3 starter for your team.

All farm team options are unsalaried and must keeps; yours include (brackets are Dobber’s Prospect ranking): Derick Brassard (2), Jakob Voracek (6), Patrick Berglund (9), Igor Makarov (50), and Drew Miller (101).

You have $109 tied to 12 players and you have $141 left for 13 more players.  I’m of the opinion that you should keep Michal Rozsival for $14 instead of Brett Clark $4 but … to each his own.  You’ll need to pursue an elite goaltender option at some time, a stud forward (preferably a goalscorer), and another elite option at D.  You should plan to spend $90-100 on those 3 players and that’d leave about $50 to fill out the remaining 10 roster slots.

What to do, what to do

You have 3 areas that need to be addressed before or during your auction; you’re going to need to go after an elite goaltender, at least one elite goalscorer and a hardnosed D.  You’ll have to budget, plan your inflation rate prior to your auction (since you’ll probably need to consult it as many as 3 times during the auction), and as prep it’d be nice to solve one of those 3 areas by trade before auction time comes.  It may’ve been easiest to solve your elite goaltender option right now but it looks like guys have beaten you to the punch.  Over the last month Evgeni Nabokov, JS Giguere, and Niklas Backstrom have all changed hands while you sat on yours.  It’s a pity actually, Giggy would’ve looked wonderful on your team and the price may’ve been low enough that say Kristian Huselius would’ve been enough.  Oh well, there may be an option with the guy that traded for Giggy since he has Rick DiPietro who may be expendable on his team now.  You tell me that your inclination is to make a move closer to the draft but let me just tell you, you’re missing the boat NOW.  Jump on board.

Come auction time there are going to few elite guys to pursue.  As an elite goalie option then it looks like Roberto Luongo and Henrik Lundqvist will spark bidding wars, but you aren’t going to have the most money at the table so you could be outbidded for either of them.  Don’t be.  Break out your inflation rate calculation and if you go into the draft still needing another elite goalie then you MUST come out of the auction with one of these two options.  The silver lining in this scenario is that there look to be a couple goalies out there that you can try to trade for now and then you don’t have to worry about this problem at auction.

Elite D options won’t be plentiful at auction either.  The main target is Chris Pronger, I just like him because he provides nearly as much offense and +/- as Nik Lidstrom but he gives a bucketful more PIMs.  The next couple options that should be available for auction are the aforementioned Lidstrom, followed by Brian Rafalski and Ryan Whitney.  Anyone after that is going to be a guy you won’t want to come close to spending elite money on.

Finally the elite F options at auction should be Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Daniel Alfredsson in the uppermost tier, followed by Daniel Briere, Rick Nash, Brian Rolston, Daniel Sedin, and Ales Hemsky in the next tier.  You’ll want to go hard after one of the guys on the top tier and at least one more from the 2^nd tier, maybe two if you can afford it from the 2^nd tier.

What you did

Ok, between now and auction day you’ll want to solve one of your 3 needs if you can.  In most scenarios that’ll mean dealing for a goaltender.  It doesn’t look like there’ll be many elite guys available for trade at either F or D so you should be targeting certain goalies.  Actually some goalies have been up for grabs already and you haven’t gotten any of them, it looks like there are some options around yet though.  Let’s look at some possibilities.

Yogis made a move in the last month to get JS Giguere and then he sat with Giggy, Rick DiPietro, Marty Turco, and Pascal Leclaire.  Both DiP and Turc are on expiring contracts this season so I first suggested you try to trade for Turco.  Yogi loves to trade and had too much salary locked up into too many keeper options so in the end you traded Ryan Malone $6 (can be extended) for Marty Turco $24 (expiring next year), Rick DiPietro $13 (expiring this season), and Dan Boyle $14 (expiring this season).  Yogi wanted stability on his roster beyond this season for a price he can afford and you wanted elite goaltending.  My reaction was HOLY FREAKING HAIRY COWS MAN!  (or perhaps some other kind of colourful word play).  Now you have Ryan Miller that you can move for offense and Manny Legace becomes your G3 for next to nothing.  You even addressed your D problem with this deal.

Next you shopped Ryan Miller around for some elite offensive options available.  Rumour was that Paul Stastny was available.  Negotiations continued and at last check the offer stood at Ryan Miller/Kristian Huselius/unknown player for Paul Stastny/Brian Campbell.  If you can get that then you should, even though it’ll mean that you will have to rebalance your squad after you win another championship.  Another guy had Vinny Lecavalier on the block and you offered Miller up for him.  That isn’t enough, but you know that.  A recent counter was Morrow/Franzen for Vinny $26 (signed thru this season only) and I think that price is too steep when you can use the extra cash in your auction to get options as viable as Vinny and still have Franzen/Morrow as excellently priced secondary offense.  Another package offer you made was Miller/Huselius/Morrow for Bieksa/J.Staal/Backstrom (the C) and that’s all part of negotiations thus far.   Some of those moves look good to me.

Conclusions

Well, here we are.  You had 3 areas to address and I was hoping we could address one of them this offseason, it’s looking like you have a decent shot at addressing all 3 areas though.  You certainly have addressed 2 of them by acquiring Turco, DiPietro and Boyle (again, wow).  It even looks like you can move your spare goalie for offensive help too but even if you can’t then you can still spend the rest of your offseason dangling a goaltender out there for an offensive option that includes somebody the calibre of Paul Stastny if you can’t land him in the next week or so.

You’ve used up a whack of salary making these deals but you’re doing so in an attempt to stay at the top.  I believe you’re going to stay at the top.  Your goaltending is once again elite, your D is anchored by Phaneuf and now Boyle and you still have salary left to go after Pronger who will be in the auction.  Most of your auctioning will be to go get affordable offensive options and one elite offensive option.  The elite offensive forward should be Ilya Kovalchuk in my opinion since it looks like your team will need more goal scoring next year.  Failing that the next best elite option in your auction is Joe Thornton.  If you come out of your auction with one of Kovy/Thornton as well as Pronger in your pocket then I don’t care if you have to roster Mark Recchi and Keith Tkachuk to back them up, you’re well on your way anyway.

We emailed back and forth about what your strategy was for this season and I had to make sure you understood what you were doing by making these moves.  You sold some of your future in an attempt to stay on top.  I’m confident that you’ll be doing that.

Congrats on your championship this year and congrats on the one that you’re on your way to for next year.  Attaboy Paul.

i really do think this is going to be a classic Final.  these 2 teams look very similar to me, they both have elite offenses full of elite names.  in fact i say this series will come down to who has the better D options.

i’m a Sid fan, i really am, but the Red Wings are going to be the 2008 champions.  you probably didn’t hear it here first but still, you heard it here.  i’d very much like the Pens to win this but i just don’t see it happening.  i’ll give the elite offensive edge to the Pens simply because Sid and Gene are phenomenal talents but at the same time, Zett and Datsyuk are no slouches.  there was plenty of talk this season about how both Zetterberg and Datsyuk are viable Hart trophy options and they are … even though they aren’t nominated.  i even like Fleury more than Osgood but still, it won’t be enough.  the difference in this series is in D depth.  Lidstrom, Kronwall, and Rafalski are among the best 2 way D’s in the game, particularly Lidstrom.  against that the Pens can only throw Gonchar (who i love), the promise of Whitney and Letang (who haven’t shown enough for me) and several options who seldom cross the opposing blueline (not that defensive D aren’t valuable). 

the Wings don’t allow shots so they can afford not to have a superstar goalie.  they’re having their blueline patrolled by superstars and that’s where the difference will be.  this will be a hard-fought, interesting series with the Wings coming out on top in game 7 at home surrounded by adoring fans.

sorry to say it but Sid will have to start his dynasty NEXT year.

This is part two of an article in for An Expert’s Audit.  My hope is that you can glean something beneficial out of this, particularly you folks in salary leagues.

Protecting the right guys

It is a common misconception that you just keep the best players.  Well I suppose it is true that in a straight draft keeper league you do indeed keep the best players, but in a salary league you don’t protect the best players you protect the best value.  There’s a big difference between spending a fifth of your cap on Sidney Crosby and having a minimal FA protection on Jonathan Toews.

Many leagues mix salaries and/or draft picks into the setup and your auction/draft strategy has to change from your standard redraft league.  Should you use 1/5^th of your cap to protect Sidney Crosby or do you protect Peter Mueller, Kyle Okposo, and Patrick O’Sullivan for the same price?  You protect the kids and then you use the extra space in your cap to try and resign Sid for as close to the same price as last year.  Protection in salary leagues isn’t about talent, it’s about value and it’s always better to have your cake and eat it too.

I got to auctioneer for a league last year and my jaw literally dropped as a buddy nominated and got his backup goalie for the minimum FA bid.  Now he sits with Miikka Kiprusoff and Carey Price and it baffles me that nobody bid him up at that auction.  He didn’t win the league this year but he’s got himself a cornerstone on the cheap for years to come.  Obviously he’s going to keep Price and let inflation slowly raise his salary over the next decade.  I mention this because keeping players is all about value and not about talent.

Learn about inflation

If you’ve never considered the concept of inflation in your salary league then I’d be betting that you’ve never won your salary league too.  Inflation helps you in two ways in a salary league; economically, and scarcity-based.  Scarcity is easier to explain so I’ll briefly look at that.  The principle is simple, if everybody is loading up on their goalies then you better be sure to get yours too.  That’ll mean paying more than you projected to ensure you get what you need to compete in your league.  It’ll also mean that you should be tiering every player you have interest in during your draft so that you don’t miss out on the any option you have listed at a higher tier.

It’s also a lot of fun to track where everyone has the holes in their lineup and then bid the exact amount they have left on their cap just to ensure that the other guy doesn’t get a bargain when he’s struggling to fill his lineup.  It’ll mean tracking EVERYTHING during your auction, you need to know how many bucks each guy at the table still has on the table and you need to know what each guy still needs to fill out his roster.  Programs can be developed that’ll do all that for you as you plug into your spreadsheet.

Economic based inflation is a concept that I stole from fantasy baseball.  It should be noted that in this discussion you’ll have to “tweak” the numbers to fit your salary cap and what each guy will be keeping.  The numbers WON’T come out as neatly as my example but if you do it right then you’ll have an advantage over the rest of your league.  I searched around for a good example to put out here for you and the best example I could find for economic inflation was actually found in the fantasy baseball realm.  Don’t ignore this portion of the article because you think baseball is too slow or whatever lame-ass opinion you want to throw out at me.

Any salary league has to take inflation into account during a draft.  Prepare beforehand and it’s perfectly fine to show up at your draft with a spreadsheet and a calculator in addition to all your salary projections for the upcoming season.

Let’s assume that your league is a 12 teamer with 23 man rosters and a $260 salary cap, I use those numbers because they’re standard for fantasy baseball which is where I stole this concept from.  Every fantasy mag puts out auction values for fantasy leagues so you’ll just need to account for inflation over the course of your auction.  No you don’t want to just wing it, not if you want to win.  Tracking your leagues economic inflation over the course of your auction will help you to evaluate the value of elite players in your auction, and that’s how you want to use it.

Everyone is going to keep guys, let’s say everyone keeps 10 guys.  Since everyone has a $260 cap and everyone will need 23 guys that’ll mean that 12 guys chase 276 names (12 x 23 man rosters) and there’s only $3120 (12 x $260) to spend.  Let’s say everyone keeps 10 guys and to keep numbers simple let’s further say that they are all kept at $10 apiece.  Each team has spent $100 and the total spent in the league going into the auction is $1200 (12 x 100).  Next, get out your fantasy auction values that you scooped off of whatever fantasy source you think is the smartest (insert Dobber’s fantasy guide commercial here) and note all the fantasy salary values they list, you’ll have to prorate accordingly if you don’t use a $260 cap, and you probably don’t.  You’ll next need to total up the fantasy value in your league.  Ok, are you ready to get all nerdy?

Look up everyone’s keepers to see what the auction value listed for them is.  Let’s say you’re keeping Corey Perry for $10 (yes it can happen, you just have yourself a bargain) but he’s listed at $13 (I just made up that number).  You add up what the auction value is, not the price you’re actually keeping him at.  Let’s say that everyone is keeping $160 worth of value and the total value protected is $1920 (12 x $160) while remembering that the actual total money spent is actually $1200.

Subtract the value protected from $3120.

 Subtract the money spent.

 That means there is $1920 worth of money chasing $1200 worth of value, assuming that guys are auctioned for the prices set by the expert’s you trust.  Now divide the money left by value left and you’ll get your inflation rate, 1920/1200 = 1.6

Confused?  Well, that inflation rate is an important number come draft time.  Let’s say that Evgeni Malkin was overpriced last year and he had to be thrown back into the auction for this upcoming season.  Let’s also assume his fantasy guide auction value is $44 (another made up number) and your auction gets into prices in the 50’s for him before guys are dropping out since they see a $44 value and a $50 price tag.  Since dollars are limited in the pool anyway you can let your inflation rate be in effect and realize that there’s only so many dollars to go chasing after elite options; multiply his listed dollar value by 1.6 (in this example only) and realize that his actual value in this league is $70.  So … keep bidding, you’re actually getting a bargain on him since your inflation rate helps you realize his true value in THIS league.  This inflation rate will help you evaluate superstars because prices get ridiculous and guys drop out of the bidding.  You do NOT want to figure out an inflation rate on every auctioned player because you’ll end up burning up your cap space bidding on guys you can’t afford.  But the important question becomes, do you want Evgeni Malkin when you have some bucks available or do you want Fernando Pisani when all the options are gone but you still have cash on the table?

Again guys, every inflation rate is different because every setup is different.  It’s confusing.  Use a calculator or if you can, use an abacus … nobody will have a clue what you’re doing (and wear a pocket protector, horned rims and Bryl-cream).

Conclusions

It’s a long way up the hill after you get smoked in a keeper league.  It’s all CONSTANT evaluation, the eternal struggle to find value.

Who do you keep?  You keep the guy that you CAN’T get back for the same price next year.  You keep the guy who’s priced correctly too but it’s more important to keep value than it is to keep ability (at any price).  I got a bit mathy on you today and I’m the first to admit that it isn’t my strong suit but still, it’s necessary.  It’s amazing to me that guys don’t track money spent in an auction and they don’t account for an inflation rate to better target the elite option. 

A little bit of prep time will take you a long way but there’s a danger too; obviously you have to guard against using your inflation rate too often and eating up your salary cap bidding on the best options available.  In the end game you don’t want to have to search for minor leaguers or empty roster spots because you can’t afford to fill in your team.  I’m just saying you also don’t want to leave money on the table; there’s fewer things worse than that in an auction draft.

Philadelphia (6) vs. Pittsburgh (2) - sometime in January or so the Flyers sat in 1st place in their division and i made the prediction that they wouldn’t relinquish that for the remainder of the season.  they proceeded to go on a losing streak for close to a month (i forget, what was it 12 games?) that coincided with some injury issues for Mike Richards and some general struggles for many of their team.  i think it’s fair to say that this Flyers squad is back in stride with what they were doing prior to that losing streak.  they’re playing smashmouth hockey like few in the entire league can play.  will it be enough?  i’m still saying no.  i picked the Pens for the final back when this whole playoff thing started and i’m sticking with that.  the Pens are highly skilled, more skilled than the Habs; they skate better, pass better, cycle down low and their D and MAF are at least equal to what the Flyers have been putting out.  one could certainly argue that the Flyers could do to Sid and Gene what they did to the vaunted Habs offense but i argue that they beat the Habs by stopping their power play and the Pens are a lot less dependant on their power play.  the Pens can hurt you a lot easier at even strength than the Habs can or could.  have you watched Malkin with the puck?  Sid seems a bit dinged up still but even when he has the puck there’s a definite determination to control every element of the game.  Biron was a hero against the Habs but i see Gene and Sid finding the chinks in the armour.  Pens in 6.

Dallas (5) vs. Detroit (1) - that Dallas team can surprise, but they won’t.  Marty Turco has been amazing but the Wings give up so few shots/game that all they’ll need is 2 goals a game and this is over.  the Wings are the class of the West and now that the Dom “experiment” is over then Ozzy will be just enough to make sure the Wings get to where they’re destined to be.  with all the hype around Johan Franzen last round i think we’re going to see more out of Pavol Datsyuk this round and he and Zett will prove themselves the best forwards on that team by a mile.  this won’t be a big scoring series.  Wings in 5.

Philadelphia (6) vs. Montreal (1) - originally i wanted the Rangers to take it to Montreal in the 2nd round but that ain’t happening now.  i think the Flyers are going to get a serious wakeup call here, these Habs are not the Washington Capitals.  Montreal has a better all around attack, an elite power play, a strong defensive system and a young stud goalie that wants to keep proving himself.  Kovalev and AKost are going to dominate this series and they’ll show the chinks in the armour of D-men who played over their heads in the first round (i’m thinking of Modry and Hatcher primarily).  i still like Braydon Coburn to contribute some and Daniel Briere will still lead the Flyers in scoring but he’ll be passed fairly easily in the playoff scoring race.  i see this lasting 5 games, maybe 6, and the Habs will be home and cooled out watching an offensive shootout in the other Eastern matchup.

New York Rangers (5) vs. Pittsburgh (2) - this will be a war.  i think that MA Fleury will show significant stripes and prove that he’s the equal of any tender in the East (yes i said it).  there’s going to be lots of scoring but the BIG save, the CLUTCH save will happen off MAF’s equipment in the end.  i’m loading up on these guys in my playoff pool where you can only select players for one round and then never use them again.  i’m picking Malkin, Crosby, Jagr and Gomez and i only get 8 selections this round.  it’ll go 7 games and i’m thinking there’ll be a lot of 5-4 games with the Pens coming out on top at home in the 7th game.

Colorado (6) vs. Detroit (1) - this is the matchup that the Wings wanted, quite frankly they didn’t want to have to face any of Calgary, Anaheim or Dallas if the chips had fallen that way.  i think this has the potential to be fairly offensive too but the Wings allow so few shots that i wonder if this series will turn into a pure defensive struggle or not.  Sakic and Forsberg will lead like everyone knows they will but they’ll be outshone by Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg.  Detroit in 6 games.

Dallas (5) vs. San Jose (2) - there is all sorts of potential for this series to blow up in the Sharks faces.  if they thought Calgary was tough then they haven’t seen anything yet.  the Stars play essentially the same game as the Flames except they’re better at it.  i see Morrow pounding Campbell against the end boards on every dump-in chance he gets at him and if Campbell fights his way through that like he did against Calgary then he could still be a good option this series.  once he gets out of his own zone with the puck though he’s going to have face blanketing defensive forwards and a mix of skating puck control D with some muscle that can finish the job that Morrow didn’t finish.  Dallas plays a more intimidating game than Calgary does and they’ve just finished blanketing the champs into submission.  if you like hard-nosed hockey then this’ll be the round to watch.  originally i planned for the Sharks to beat Anaheim this round but right now … give me the Stars in 7.

My hope is that you can glean something beneficial out of this, particularly you folks in salary leagues.

What vacation?

Don’t take the summer off. This is an absolute must in ANY league.  Just like trading PIMs to a guy who can steal a point away from your main competition is a smart move, especially if it also won’t hurt you, look at draft and keeper options over the summer to see if you can put yourself in better position for a draft pick in September.  Do you have a guy that is a good keeper option but you can’t keep?  How about moving him to a guy so you can pocket a pick of his?  I find in my keepers that nobody looks at that as an option, they just sit and wait for the draft and let things fall where they may.  Idiotic.  If you can help yourself in July or August then you have to have that discussion, in the very least.  Your league’s strategy has to go year round and you need to fight year round. 

Know the rules of your league.  I’m the “secretary” for my two keeper leagues.  We only keep 3 guys from year to year but still, best I can tell, I’m the only guy firing off emails to other guys in the offseason to see if I can gauge interest in moving a couple guys or a keeper and a pick for a better keeper.  In our league you’re not allowed to trade draft picks so you have to make a deal where you draft a player the other guy wants and then trade him post-draft.  It’s just like the NBA in that respect, but for vastly different reasons.  Get out your fine tooth comb and take a close look at your league’s constitution to see what is permissible for trading in the offseason.  If you don’t have a constitution then you should begin discussions for setting one because guys like me will look for loopholes everywhere … and seekers find, my friends.

Know your history

As you prepare for your season, compare your team to the guy’s team that won the whole shooting match last year.  Essentially you’ll need to tier guys to see if you would/could measure up over the course of a season.  As an example I’ll give you a look at one of Dobber’s keeper teams, just bear in mind that every league is going to be different as every setup is different. 

Every guy in every league HAS to have a plan.  If you go into an auction or a draft with just a draft list and your favourite fantasy sports mag then you’re probably primed to be run over by the guy with a laptop, a spreadsheet, and a plan already laid out.

Comparing your keeper options with last year’s winner’s team is the way to start.  Obviously whatever that guy put out for his team last year was enough for victory so start comparing options off your squad that could perform close to his starters.  Dobber’s starters, listed in order of importance to his squad, on a team that is going to win this year are:

Evgeni Malkin, Vincent Lecavalier, Marc Savard, Paul Stastny, Jeff Carter, Kristian Huselius, Jaromir Jagr, Dustin Brown, Andy McDonald, Jason Arnott, Rod Brind’amour, Keith Tkachuk, Ryan Whitney, and Rostislav Olesz.  They are all integral to the team’s continuance.  It’s the remainder of the roster that determines where you finish, they represent the chances you take.The “wildcards” on his team are: Marek Zidlicky, Colby Armstrong, Torrey Mitchell, Tom Poti, and Jason King.  It’s these guys that will be dropped or traded for picks during the offseason.  Dobber apparently is considering putting Keith Tkachuk on his trade list but I’d consider adding Olesz to that list too if he could get a pick worth having.

Now if I were in this league, and I’m not, I’d look at Dobber’s team and I’d try to figure out how I can acquire players that could compete with his lineup.  The top of his roster has 4 guys with 100 point potential so I’d have to get my hands on 4 other guys with 100 pt potential just to be able to compete.  His next tier has a couple guys with as high as 80 pt potential but they’re also getting older so let’s group Carter, Huselius, Jagr, Brown, McDonald, Arnott, and Brind’amour into a 50-75 pt grouping.  If all those guys get 75 pts next year (not likely) then I’d need to find 525 pts out of those 7 starting slots. That’s a ceiling mind you so, let’s downgrade that to 450 pts.  That means that I’d have to find 850 pts out of 11 starting slots in order to compete.  That’s not that hard to get to actually, I totaled my top 11 scorers in one of my leagues and got close to 800, and I’m not winning that league this year plus it’s a 16 team league.  In a standard 12 team league you should be able to get close to 850 pts out of your top 11 starters, if you can’t you’re probably not winning.  Sorry to be blunt.  The heart of your squad has to match up with your reigning champ’s, if you’re still in rebuilding mode then … keep rebuilding, but if you have a shot then set a plan and take the guy out.

Dobber’s team next year will be won or lost with what he does with the remainder of his roster.  Maybe he can turn Tkachuk, Zidlicky and/or Olesz into something nice and he shouldn’t have to worry about losing guys like Armstrong, Mitchell, and Poti since he should be able to replace them with similar talent at his draft/auction.  All he needs to do is pay attention.  He starts by tiering starting slots and setting a plan, then he’s already well on his way to what could be a solid repeat next year.

Conclusions

It’s all about a little bit of planning.  Know your league’s rules.  Go ahead and look for loopholes, it’s the innovative guy that creates the need for constitutions in a keeper league. Constitutions are a good thing, it allows for everyone to understand what is permissible. 

Who won last year?  Why?  Duplicate what he did.  Go over his roster carefully because there’s a very good chance he’s going to try to do to you this year what he did to you last year.  Maybe you can’t throw Paul Stastny into your lineup like Dobber can but perhaps Eric Staal gets you there.  Maybe you don’t have Vincent Lecavalier but perhaps you have Ilya Kovalchuk.  No Evgeni Malkin?  Maybe Jason Spezza will let you compete.  It doesn’t matter what names you have for the upper tier because your league won’t necessarily be won there, it’ll be won by finding guys who’ll have career years and top out at 70 pts next season.  Winning your league most likely happens on the 2^nd tier.  Patrick Kane will keep pace with Jason Arnott fairly easily next year, Sam Gagner might be as good an option next year as Jeff Carter was this year, Peter Mueller might be better than Jaromir Jagr next year (if Jagr isn’t playing in Russia); those are just examples though.  Pay attention in the 2^nd half of your draft/auction because that’s probably where your league will be won or lost.  You have to pick better options for filling out your squad than last year’s champ, that’s always a crapshoot anyway, just be smarter than him.  According to Dobber you only have to be right 53% of the time in order to beat him anyway (was that a shot?  I think that was a shot).

Next month I plan to talk about inflation and how to keep the right guys.  I’m looking forward to it and I hope you will be too. 

Ken Diorio’s Ice Capades and Michael Cauda’s Boom Boom Geoffrion’s Ghost are in the same fantasy league and Mike recommended that Ken get a review from me.  they played each other in the semi-finals and Ken went to the final.  Ken was tooth and nail to make the playoffs and ended up in the final.  there was no word if he won the whole shooting match or not but still, it’s impressive that both guys went so far.  i’m calling both these reviews a win (2-0-0).

Justin Kelly’s Kerry Fraser’s Hair went from 12th to 8th before falling short and being knocked out of playoff contention.  he won 6 matchups in a row but came up short in the end.  Kerry Fraser’s Hair was my first weekly review here at hockeyanalysis.com.  he improved his squad but fell short in the end.  i’d like to call it a win because he improved but i’ll call it a push since he didn’t make the playoffs (2-0-1).

Dean Herback’s Regina Pats stayed where he was in the standings after his review but he did ration his limited transactions to his own benefit throughout the season.  he lost his semi-final matchup to a guy from Winnipeg (couldn’t happen to a nicer guy there Dean) and no it wasn’t me.  in the end the results from Dean’s pool are a push (2-0-2).

Chris Diaz’s Eltingville Express won it’s division but came up short in total points.  he finished in the money and i’ve yet to receive my cut.  you guys do realize that i’m basically a bastard right?  this is a win (3-0-2).

Tim Jarrold’s TJ’s Tigers started the season 4-8 then went 8-0 and finished the year at 12-9 to make the playoffs.  they knocked off the top scoring team in the 1st round and lost to the eventual league champion in the semi’s.  they finished in 4th, just out of the money.  the Tigers say they’re willing to do this team review thing again in the future so i’m definitely calling this one a win (4-0-2).

Joseph Ampon’s Six DeVries of Separation finished in 3rd on the season and when i reviewed his team he was in 2nd.  i told him to go out and get more SOG, knowing that’d translate into more G and his failure to get more G cost him this race.  well, i live and die by this so i have to call this a loss since he fell down the standings (4-1-2).  holy crap Ampon, help a brother out here!  (i’m just kidding Joseph.  your team name last year of “He ain’t heavy, he’s my Brodeur” is an all time fave of mine and i’ve named one of my keeper teams after that concept).

James Nickerson’s UKflames was a keeper team that was already out of the running when i came on the scene.  the question became, how do we make things better for next year?  we traded a slew of vets away, got some young studs and draft picks back and i’m actually rather proud of how much his team sucked toward the end, that’ll make things better at draft time.  this will sound weird but UKflames fell down the standings and this review is a WIN (5-1-2).

Paul Miller’s MillerTime just returned to the championship podium after a sabattical of a few years.  i looked at MillerTime briefly last year but wasn’t able to take a run at helping him during the year last season so i made sure to work him into the mix early this season.  he made a ballsy trade to land Luongo/Erat but it cost him Nicklas Backstrom/Parise and it went a long way to putting him over the top this year.  anyway, dude won so this is an obvious win (6-1-2).

Joey Wilson’s Spezz Dispenser kicked ass and took some names this season.  he finally proved his hockey knowledge to these guys after a couple years of trying.  i say he just cured his own case of addsy-dropsy and the battle was half won.  i’m still waiting for my cut Joey (another joke of course … unless you think i’m serious then send cash to … ).  this is a win (7-1-2).

Stephane Rodiers’ team was called Stephane Rodiers, highly original i know.  i was only able to work with Steve for about 4 days but it was a whirlwind of 4 days.  despite a lot of hot air being thrown around by me the whirlwind produced no results for Stephane in his keeper.  the only thing i can say is that if i’m travelling through the Ottawa valley sometime i could call this guy up and go out for a cup of Joe, that’d be cool.  if we had been able to get ANYTHING done then i could call this a push but … there’s no way, this is a loss (7-2-2).

Steve Knippel’s Olympiques came out on top in a games limit league that i don’t think he enjoyed all that much.  he was playing for pride but at least he got to kick his own brother the Navy captain, around the schoolyard for a bit.  i collected on this one.  Steve and i went to a hockey game last week and watched the Moose destroy the Marlies while i sat there solemnly in my Maple Leafs sweatshirt.  a win (8-2-2).

Ryan Lennox’s camelshuffle squeeked into the playoffs and then began to dominate.  anything can happen in the H2H playoffs and all you need is a ticket to the dance.  Ryan won his league and that’s a win for me too (9-2-2).

Kevin Benkie’s Lucky Charms had a dookie for logo, funny and revolting at the same time.  he went up the standings but i don’t think it was any of my doing.  i suggested that he shop Braydon Coburn around since he’d be a good keeper option for guys and now it looks like Coburn should be among Kevin’s keeps himself.  i guess it was a good thing that nobody took him up on the Coburn option.  i see this as a loss (9-3-2).

gabe y’s Injured Reserve improved from 7th to 3rd but he lost in the first round of the playoffs to a team that he had previously advised about how to stream players in order to win.  that kinda backfired on both of us i guess.  i’m not sure whether this is a win or a loss because he improved but in crunch time the team fell on it’s face.  i’m calling it a push (9-3-3).

Ivan Lee’s Trigun went from 9th place and 34.5 pts out to 2nd place and 9.5 pts back.  unfortunately the guy who won the league was the loudmouth of the league so that’ll be hard to live down.  definitely a win though (10-3-3).

Regi King’s Terminators were in 2nd when i came on the scene and he finished in 2nd place.  i advised him to go out to improve his goals situation and there was no discernable difference by the end of the season.  his team stayed in the same position but he didn’t get the improvement where he needed it so i have to call this a loss (*!$#*)(10-4-3).

my buddy Will Wong’s Chinese Takeout improved in assists and SHP to jump from 4th to 1st and take away his championship.  i advised him to trade PIMs to a competitor at a bargain price because he couldn’t be hurt there and the guy he was trading with could hurt 2 of his main competition in PIMs easily.  it worked like a charm and i get beer and wings out of the deal.  nice. (11-4-3).

Conclusions

well, there we have it.  i actually reviewed over 20 teams this season and only a handful gave me the old screw you in terms of responding back.  i’m hoping that it isn’t because their team imploded in front of them and they blame me.  since they didn’t respond though i’ll assume that no news is good news.

25 pts out of a possible 36 ain’t too shabby at all, that’s .694 hockey.  the Red Wings were the only NHL team with a better win percentage than me at .701 this season.  yeah, ok it’s not even close to fair to compare myself to the Red Wings but … well who cares, i came within an OT winner of taking home the President’s Trophy BABY! 

who’s the MAN?  well, i guess i’d have to say Nik Lidstrom but outside of him, it’s me today. 

let me have this guys, i’ve already told you i’m a small, bitter man.  by the way, thanks to all for their willingness to let me peruse things this year.  i really do love this stuff.

Pittsburgh (2) vs. Ottawa (7) - the Sens have been utterly lost for a couple months now but they put up a brave face.  it sure was nice of them to take the first shot, perhaps they figure it’s the only shot they’ll get.  i don’t see the Sens sans Alffy and Fisher doing much of anything.  if you’re in my playoff pool then you better take your Sens right off the bat ’cause i see this ending in 5.  the Pens can send Sid and Gene out there separately and there’s no way you can stop them both.  i suspect they’ll concentrate on stopping one of them (Malkin if they believe Sid’s still hurt) and take their chances with the other.  nevertheless, i see the Pens in the Final this year, the weak D and goalie that plagued them before is a thing of the past and MAF is playing as good or better than any goalie in the league right now.

Washington (3) vs. Philadelphia (6) - take a look at points in the standing ever since the date that Washington fired their coach at the quarter pole.  only the Pens got their hands on more points since that date.  it’s just a shame that the Pens and Caps are on a collision course for the 2nd round because i think it’d make for a HUGE Eastern Final.  in fact in my playoff league i may just load up on Sid, Gene and AO in the 2nd round since i expect that matchup to be a barn-burner.  i guess you can tell that i figure that Washington will run away with this series, and they may, but Philly will stay with them … for a bit.  i say the Caps in 6.  Mike Richards will have a big series and i expect some good stats out of Braydon Coburn but in the end it won’t be enough.  when AO doesn’t kill them they’ll be neuteured by Semin (smirk).

New Jersey (4) vs. New York Rangers (5) - this is where i’m calling my upset for the first round.  i think the Rangers have been laying in the weeds and they’re about to explode offensively all over poor Marty Brodeur.  i think that King Hank has the talent to stay with Marty but i don’t see the Devils offense matching up with the Rangers well.  it’ll be a hard fought series that the Rangers will win on the road in 7.  look for a big series out of Scott Gomez, Zach Parise, Jaromir Jagr, and Michal “cracklin’ Rosie” Rozsival.  now if the Devils can turn this into a pure defensive series then John Madden will be the difference maker, but i still say the Rangers will outlast.

Detroit (1) vs. Nashville (8) - some are saying that this is going to be the upset series of the first round but … well, it ain’t happening.  Detroit will walk all over the Preds.  history does indicate that the Wings have some 1st round issues but there are just too many issues for the Preds to pull this off.  they’ll rely on Jason Arnott as a first option too much when he should be a 3rd option on any “great” team; the main part of their team is still too young and unproven, and i just don’t trust their goaltending.  if the Preds win a game then i think they’ll have to consider that a victory overall and if they win 2 games then at least they get an extra gate out of the deal in game 6.  Wings in 5.

San Jose (2) vs. Calgary (7) - nobody in the West is playing better than the Sharks to end the season.  as much as the Canadian in me wants Canadian cities to succeed in the playoffs i just can’t blindly cheer for a Canadian based team if i think the American based team has more talent.  i’ll be a Sharks fan for the next couple months, i pick them to lose to the Pens in the Final.  there has been some debate about who the better goalie is in this matchup so let me just tell you now, it’s Gene Nabokov … hands down.  i like Iggy, i like “PIMy D”ion but Big Joe can dominate a game too and Brian Campbell doesn’t get nearly enough print for what he brings to this table.  this should be a very nice matchup to watch and i’m happy that CBC should be running it out there for me to see every second night.  Sharks in 6.

Minnesota (3) vs. Colorado (6) - the Wild is the closest geographical NHL team to me, and despite that i’ve only seen them play on tv a handful of times this year.  i like them, a lot.  they play inspired defensive hockey and they run a counterattack out there featuring Gaborik and Rolston that few in the NHL can rival.  they still won’t win.  Peter Forsberg is back, he’s healthy and he’s been on fire.  Forsberg has made a supreme talent like Joe Sakic blend into the background.  Joe FREAKING Sakic is on the ice and the other team has to worry about what Forsberg and Stastny are going to do to them.  the Wild can’t stop all of them so i predict they’ll check Forsberg (probably still won’t be able to stop him) and then Sakic will apply the coup de grace.  i’m taking Gaborik in my playoff pool in the first round (we only get to roster a guy for one round) because i don’t see him being available beyond that round.  Avs in 6.

Anaheim (4) vs. Dallas (5) - neither of these teams wanted the other in the first round.  this matchup is going to be a war and it’ll be a main reason why the winner won’t have the jam to beat either Detroit or San Jose in the next round (it’ll be San Jose if Colorado goes ahead and kicks Minny’s ass like i say they will).  this’ll be a really fun series to watch too, if you like old time hockey.  remember the goaltending wars tween Luongo and Turco in the first round last year?  Turco had 3 shutties in regulation (if i remember right) and he lost the series.  people underestimate his value to that team in that system and he’ll remind them again just why it is that he’s drafted so highly in fantasy leagues, dude’s got exceptional skill.  now Giggy is no slouch either but he’s also got Chris Pronger playing in front of him, the Stars don’t have anyone to match up to what Prongs gives.  on an unrelated note Niedermayer, Schneider and Beauchemin should all take on the nicknames of Mooney, Padfoot and Wormtail so that they could fill out the grouping effectively (if you don’t get that then you should read more).  anywho, the Ducks D will hurt you everyway and the Stars won’t be able to respond effectively.  Ducks in 6.

what you need to do is plan out your entire bracket and try to save guys from your Final 4 until you can really use them.  i break things down into pt/game options (you can find that stuff at NHL.com) and then pray that i get my matchups right.   last year i finished 4th, just out of the money.

i’ll do a quick breakdown of the matchups when i have a free hour or so.